J.Spin Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I put together a few pictures below from yesterday at Stowe. It was really great to get that surprise snow – it wasn’t a huge dump, but I had some really nice powder turns on our first run off the quad, and at least on the top half of the mountain I found that the new snow really enhanced the conditions for a while. I’ve got the full report from yesterday at our website. I was also just looking at the 12Z ECMWF, and saw that there were four upcoming chances for winter weather on there: Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday/Monday. None looked huge, but that’s nice heading toward the holiday week. It sounds like the Wednesday event could be a bit messy though with regard to the frozen precipitation based on the BTV discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Let's reminisce about the most extreme hailstorm ever to come at me and obliterate all I hold dear. I'm centered under the alarming purple pixel when this radar stops. One of the few warning events that I had an off day this year. Seems like I lined up with quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I put together a few pictures below from yesterday at Stowe. It was really great to get that surprise snow – it wasn’t a huge dump, but I had some really nice powder turns on our first run off the quad, and at least on the top half of the mountain I found that the new snow really enhanced the conditions for a while. I’ve got the full report from yesterday at our website. I was also just looking at the 12Z ECMWF, and saw that there were four upcoming chances for winter weather on there: Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday/Monday. None looked huge, but that’s nice heading toward the holiday week. It sounds like the Wednesday even could be a bit messy though with regard to the frozen precipitation based on the BTV discussion. Looks like a decent period of upslope snow showers Monday after the fropa. The high builds in kind of quickly from the west, so it won't be very long in duration, but the parameters looks pretty good. At least for dendritic snow, rather than that heavily rimed stuff from a couple days ago. And unfortunately for midweek, it does look warm aloft. Latest Euro bringing 0C at 850 mb all the way up into Quebec. At least it's hinting at more coastal redevelopment than say the GFS. So maybe we can salvage a complete washout for the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I'd say we hit about 4 on the upper mountain by 11 am. Was a blast to ski: That's an awesome photo.... you guys must've been skiing on rock though, no? Haha its better than the white ribbons of death but I did a little foray off the trail yesterday and 2-4" of 30:1 ratio snow does not make a great base, lol. Also excellent photos, J.Spin! Really captures the day nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Looks like a decent period of upslope snow showers Monday after the fropa. The high builds in kind of quickly from the west, so it won't be very long in duration, but the parameters looks pretty good. At least for dendritic snow, rather than that heavily rimed stuff from a couple days ago. And unfortunately for midweek, it does look warm aloft. Latest Euro bringing 0C at 850 mb all the way up into Quebec. At least it's hinting at more coastal redevelopment than say the GFS. So maybe we can salvage a complete washout for the Mountains. Unfortunitly, The mid week storm does look wetter for most up here, Maybe the mtns and NW Maine can salvage it If we get a faster transistion to a secondary off of SNE, But going forward looks like its going to be pretty active with some chances of some snow thru the holiday season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Snowmaking produces some ridiculous amounts of snow at the temperatures we've been seeing...today there was a localized blizzard going on at the base of the Gondola. Get in the middle of that and the inches just start piling up on your shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 At least it feels like winter now. Low of 1.7F this morning and a high of 18.4 at 1:30pm. Currently sitting at 5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Back down to my morning low of 12.3F. CON and 1P1 9F. BML -1F. Looks like the sfc ridge axis is cresting over the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Snowmaking produces some ridiculous amounts of snow at the temperatures we've been seeing...today there was a localized blizzard going on at the base of the Gondola. Get in the middle of that and the inches just start piling up on your shoulders. What is the base lodge El? 1500'?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 What is the base lodge El? 1500'?? Yeah that's the rough estimate... our Mountain Operations building sits right at like 1,550ft and the beginning of the parking lot is 1,500ft, upper lots are over 1,600ft. This morning I've got 15F at 4,000ft...12F at 2,500ft (notorious mid elevation cold pocket)... and 15F at 1,550ft. Noticable warming trend at the summit over the last 12 hours ahead of the cold front. SW winds are building and this afternoon could get wild up here with a low level jet of 45-60kts moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Awesome discussion to weenie out to from BTV, haha... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 606 AM EST MONDAY...WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH CRNT READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 0F NEK TO L/M30S SLV. TEMPS WL QUICKLY REBOUND THIS MORNING AS LLVL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. GIVEN LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS...HOURLY GRIDS WL BE DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE TRENDS...BUT HIGHS THIS AFTN WL RANGE BTWN M30S NEK TO L40S CPV/SLV. STILL EXPECT SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED IN THE MTNS. MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW...ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS...COULD RESULT IN A SLIPPERY EVENING COMMUTE. WATER VAPOR CONTS TO SHOW SPLIT FLW ACRS THE CONUS WITH NORTH JET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOUTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POTENT SYSTEM NEAR THE MEXICO/US BORDER. GIVEN THE FAST WESTERLY JET ACRS THE NE CONUS...EXPECT CHANGEABLE WX OVER OUR FA IN THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH SOME BIG SWINGS IN TEMPS. TODAY...SFC LOW PRES WL TRACK ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AND PUSH A WARM FRNT THRU OUR CWA. THIS FRNT WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK 700 TO 500MB UVVS...AND SOME 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY BTWN 12-15Z TODAY. THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS OUR REGION...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...925MB TO 850MB JET OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS LIFTS ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THIS JET COMBINED WITH SOME MIXING PER LATEST SOUNDINGS AND EFFECTS OF CHANNELING UP THE SLV/CPV WL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 40 MPH TODAY. GREATEST WINDS WL BE ACRS THE CPV/SLV AND OVER THE EXPOSED HIGHER TRRN ABOVE 2000 FT. BY 18Z TODAY...1000 TO 700MB RH INCREASES ACRS NORTHERN NY/SLV AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLW BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/GREEN MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. LOCAL BTV 4KM AND 12KM NAM BOTH SHOW QPF AROUND 0.25" IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREENS/DACKS...WHICH WL RESULT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS...BUT ONLY CHC POPS FOR CPV/SLV AS LLVLS REMAIN VERY DRY AND BEST MOISTURE ARRIVES WHILE SFC TO 850MB WINDS ARE FROM THE SW...WHICH WL PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING OFF THE DACKS ACRS THE CPV. A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACRS THE CPV AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY DECREASES BY 06Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NO RH IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AFT 06Z ACRS OUR CWA...THEREFORE WL MENTION JUST FLURRIES...EVEN ACRS THE MTNS AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. TEMPS TODAY WL RANGE FROM THE M30S NEK/MTNS TO L40S SLV/CPV...ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SLK TO L20S VSF. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Good luck, ski country! All of my eggs are in the Xmas storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Warmer air coming in ahead of the front, I reckon. Temps were plunging here last night and got down to 4F by the time I hit the rack. Thought for sure we'd reach zero...but I got up around 3am to feed the woodstove and it was up to 7F and now 10F and still climbing. Doesn't look real promising mid-week, I gather. Shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BTV WRF model showing how localized we can expect the snow in a 12 hour period later today. This would imply several inches at work and a dusting at home a few miles down the road. J.Spin is smack in the middle of the 0.25-0.5 QPF where it goes down the spine so he may do well (not all that surprising, lol). Note Jay Peak up there with 0.5-0.75" of QPF... that would be pretty nuts given good snow growth and falling in like an 8 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Thanks for the discussion highlights PF; it should be fun to see how it plays out. As I was setting up a new text file and putting in the date for logging this next potential snow event, I realized that it’s actually only been two days since our last snowfall. It would be nice for the slopes to get into one of those regimes where the Greens provide a little something every couple of days; even though they aren’t typically blockbusters, that positive reinforcement would be great for the snowpack. If Mother Nature should want to sprinkle any bigger snow events in there that would of course be OK as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Good luck, ski country! All of my eggs are in the Xmas storm at this point. It would be a miracle, But we had the Halloween storm, The Thanksgiving storm, Why not the Christmas storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 BTV WRF model showing how localized we can expect the snow in a 12 hour period later today.This would imply several inches at work and a dusting at home a few miles down the road. J.Spin is smack in the middle of the 0.25-0.5 QPF where it goes down the spine so he may do well (not all that surprising, lol). Note Jay Peak up there with 0.5-0.75" of QPF... that would be pretty nuts given good snow growth and falling in like an 8 hour period. I took a look at the 3-hour BTV WRF intervals and you can watch the precipitation walk right down the spine from 2100 hrs today through 0900 hrs tomorrow (is that all in Z, so 4:00 P.M. today through 4:00 A.M. tomorrow?). Anyway, that would be pretty decent timing for Tuesday morning turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I took a look at the 3-hour BTV WRF intervals and you can watch the precipitation walk right down the spine from 2100 hrs today through 0900 hrs tomorrow (is that all in Z, so 4:00 P.M. today through 4:00 A.M. tomorrow?). Anyway, that would be pretty decent timing for Tuesday morning turns. A couple flurries falling now. And yeah it looks promising for a period of snow later this evening. I really love those timings so when I get up at 4am its just winding down and I can get a good measurement for the early reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 A couple flurries falling now. Yeah, from here at UVM I can see the clouds really dropping to right around the peaks and caps were forming on Mansfield, Bolton, Camel’s Hump, and a long one on the Stark through Abraham stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Got down to 5° Sunday morning and was down to 7° last night before rising to 12° this morning. Pretty decent cold shot considering we have virtually no snow cover to aid radiatonal cooling. If only it could hang around a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is how it happens. ADK and VT are warm, no snow, then a few weak fronts later 12 inches of fluff have fallen over an ice base and boom it's in. This looks like a classic case of orographic enhancement on a westerly flow. Honestly I think the High Peaks could see 8+ with Mansfied and Jay getting into the 5-6 range pretty easily given the fluff factor. Pf- do you get much snow transport high on mansfield? Does it blow from the eastern side and deposit along the high gullies on the western side? Honestly I hope we DO warm up midweek with song LIGHT rain because this is FLUFFY snow that needs some compaction. I like powder as much as the next dude, but i don't feel like buying any more effing ptex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anybody else the least bit interested in an xmas nor'easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anybody else the least bit interested in an xmas nor'easter? I will be if its still showing up on Weds............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anybody else the least bit interested in an xmas nor'easter? I will be if its still showing up on Weds............. I'll second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm definitely interested on Xmas, but I'm not in 24/7 model mode yet. There's a good chance it comes in more amped up with time. I kinda like where I sit on the 00z Euro for deformation snows again. Yesterday's low hit 9.2F before midnight. It continued to slowly fall to 7.7F this morning. 20.5F at this moment with BKN skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 We could still be fine here if it came more amped as we have seen most of them this year so far, There is room in NNE not so much down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Let's reminisce about the most extreme hailstorm ever to come at me and obliterate all I hold dear. I'm centered under the alarming purple pixel when this radar stops. Before/After You all thought you were safe from my tropical garden photos in the winter amirite? omg, that is just so sad...brings a tear to my eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Was 2F when I left MBY this morning, but had been a bit subzero earlier. Yesterday I recorded 19/3, the low at 9 PM after a morning min about 6F. That's about 10F below my 13-yr smoothed avg for 12/18, first time this month I've been more than a degree or two sub-normal. However, its now over a week longer into Dec without measurable snow in the month than in any other Dec here. Expected to see Long Pond in Belgrade frozen this morning, but only the sheltered edges had ice and there was a small chop on the pond - that breeze probably caused the dawn bounce in my temp. Farther north, the much larger Flagstaff Lake appeared fully iced over last Tuesday. 06 gfs has 6-8" storm Christmas morning. Would be nice, especially if it's out of here by noon, as we plan to drive to Topsham early aft, then head west toward Illinois after visiting my wife's dad. Driving in snow plus moonless dark isn't my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anybody else the least bit interested in an xmas nor'easter? Certainly, especially due to the potential impacts on the resorts for the upcoming holiday week. Depending on how this week’s winter weather events play out, there could be some compacted natural base in place on the slopes like you alluded to in your earlier post. If a substantial Nor’easter with 1+” of liquid equivalent hit on top of that, it would likely mean at least some natural snow terrain openings, and that would be very big for the holiday week. We’re still several days out from the potential event, which tempers things a bit, but also with many of the recent Nor’easters there has been a real sharp cutoff in precipitation to the north and west, and not a huge wraparound/upslope to make up for it. It would be nice to see that trend change, because Nor’easters can be great for setting up the base snow, and the right ones with a large enough precipitation shield can even get the northern areas into the act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anybody else the least bit interested in an xmas nor'easter? I'm not traveling, so yeah - hit me. Generally speaking not liking where it is modeled on the GFS right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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