OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 What crashed? I saw it mentioned in the AFD yesterday, Was that yours, Thanks.. It happened right before I came in. Multiple issues really, started with the generator UPS and ended with AWIPS (i.e. no data getting in). Basically we could make a forecast using the internet, but had no data to put into the Graphical Forecast Editor to make a forecast fit to go to the web. We on the day shift yesterday were able to use the 06z and what little of the 12z model suite that came in to make a forecast, but the midnight shift had to pass duties to CAR. We're hoping to be up and running possibly as early as this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It happened right before I came in. Multiple issues really, started with the generator UPS and ended with AWIPS (i.e. no data getting in). Basically we could make a forecast using the internet, but had no data to put into the Graphical Forecast Editor to make a forecast fit to go to the web. We on the day shift yesterday were able to use the 06z and what little of the 12z model suite that came in to make a forecast, but the midnight shift had to pass duties to CAR. We're hoping to be up and running possibly as early as this afternoon. Wow, That blows, That was going to be my next question that i was thinking you would have been collaborating with the CAR office to at least get something out there, Well Good, Luck, Hope you guys get everything back up and running soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It had flipped to freezing rain by the time I got up at 8 but there was some frozen snow and sleet on everything. Close to .25 even with the rain so will log as .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 It had flipped to freezing rain by the time I got up at 8 but there was some frozen snow and sleet on everything. Close to .25 even with the rain so will log as .25". Its good that we have you up there so we can see how much snowfall that area gets annually, I know when i am up that way in winter the get a lot of squalls pretty regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Light rain here at 43.2F with gusty south winds. There was a bit of sleet overnight but nothing significant, a rainstorm as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Looks like a decent storm for NNE is possible around 12/21. Models starting to hint at something. SNE/CNE likely cooked but a perfect track could smoke the Greens. probably rain...maybe it can snow in late Jan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Its good that we have you up there so we can see how much snowfall that area gets annually, I know when i am up that way in winter the get a lot of squalls pretty regularly Indeed, I'm very much enjoying the precipitation and snowpack observations from over there; it's a snowy area that we don't get to hear much about and it's fun getting some real on the ground beta about what goes on there during these winter events. Thanks skier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Indeed, I'm very much enjoying the precipitation and snowpack observations from over there; it's a snowy area that we don't get to hear much about and it's fun getting some real on the ground beta about what goes on there during these winter events. Thanks skier! Jspin, You do such a great job over there, It lets people see what really happens in winter in the higher elevations, Its is good that we have someone over this way doing Obs so we have some comparison of how the dacks, berks, greens and whites differ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 ** group hug ** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Jspin, You do such a great job over there, It lets people see what really happens in winter in the higher elevations, Its is good that we have someone over this way doing Obs so we have some comparison of how the dacks, berks, greens and whites differ... Actually, jspin is at the bottom of the Winooski River valley where it cuts through the spine of the Green Mts. I think his elevation is 450'. The terrain rises pretty steeply north and south of him so he still gets in on the upslope events to an extent that those a few miles either side of him don't. Great microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man we dodged a bullet (sort of) at the ski resort.... I think pretty much all of what fell was ZR or IP. There's pretty much no snow left down in town aside from a few patches, but once you get above 1,300ft it was obvious they have been holding the cold air as the snowpack jumps to like 3-4" and everything is covered in a little ice. Base area temps at 1,500ft spent all night right around 30-31F and didn't get above freezing until around 11am this morning. Now we've torched briefly into the low 40s but the summit is still holding on at 32-35F. It looked like there was a solid quarter inch of ice on all the trees and stuff up there and the snowpack is now insulated with a very crusty layer. That ice layer will go a long way to keeping what little natural snow is on the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man we dodged a bullet (sort of) at the ski resort.... I think pretty much all of what fell was ZR or IP. There's pretty much no snow left down in town aside from a few patches, but once you get above 1,300ft it was obvious they have been holding the cold air as the snowpack jumps to like 3-4" and everything is covered in a little ice. Base area temps at 1,500ft spent all night right around 30-31F and didn't get above freezing until around 11am this morning. Now we've torched briefly into the low 40s but the summit is still holding on at 32-35F. It looked like there was a solid quarter inch of ice on all the trees and stuff up there and the snowpack is now insulated with a very crusty layer. That ice layer will go a long way to keeping what little natural snow is on the hill. Something, in my opinion, that we do not forecast well. We factor elevation into pretty much all of our forecast parameters, yet ignore it for ice. And it's not particularly hard to add to elevation groups. Just a mini-rant from me, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Good upslope signal for a couple inches of snow tomorrow morning... I know the poster "ADK" has been all over this for the past several days but here's the latest data. It looks like the best chance for upslope snow will be centered around 12z tomorrow morning. Good RH in the lower levels of the atmosphere will supply the moisture. The NW favored terrain from Rangley back through the Green Mountain Spine and northwestern Adirondacks will provide the lift. You can see on this product for BTV that there is a nice up-tick in omega values down in the lowest levels which is from orographic lift and it coincides nicely with a near saturated environment. And the NAM is showing the signal on the QPF progs... these models will almost always under-forecast the QPF from these localized events but over the years I've learned that the signal is just enhanced QPF on the NW Adirondacks and general area of the Green Mountains in northern VT. Hopefully we can pick up a couple inches of snow to make it look nice and wintery out there again. Only downside is the air won't be very cold where the lift is occurring so snow growth should be quite poor. I could see it being almost convective like graupel or snow pellets given the marginal temperatures in the lift region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Actually, jspin is at the bottom of the Winooski River valley where it cuts through the spine of the Green Mts. I think his elevation is 450'. The terrain rises pretty steeply north and south of him so he still gets in on the upslope events to an extent that those a few miles either side of him don't. Great microclimate. Yeah, Just saw that in his sig, I thought he was in a higher spot, He sits in a great spot then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Something, in my opinion, that we do not forecast well. We factor elevation into pretty much all of our forecast parameters, yet ignore it for ice. And it's not particularly hard to add to elevation groups. Just a mini-rant from me, carry on. In my years of working at the ski resort I've found that almost every single time we get one of these events, temperatures verify colder than forecast in about a 2,000ft thick layer of the atmosphere from like 1,500-3,500ft or so east of the Green Mountain Spine. The valley below will lock some cold in, but it eventually warms up while that elevated cold layer just hangs on forever. We get a lot of un-forecast ice in these situations, especially given how the local terrain is oriented here on the eastern slope of the Green Mountain spine. Today the southerly jet was ripping at 40-50mph on the summit ridge but it was dead calm just below that on the northeast side of the mountain with freezing rain, while the western slope was probably in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 ** group hug ** We should all just hold hands and sing christmas carols.........falalalala when will all the snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 In my years of working at the ski resort I've found that almost every single time we get one of these events, temperatures verify colder than forecast in about a 2,000ft thick layer of the atmosphere from like 1,500-3,500ft or so east of the Green Mountain Spine. The valley below will lock some cold in, but it eventually warms up while that elevated cold layer just hangs on forever. We get a lot of un-forecast ice in these situations, especially given how the local terrain is oriented here on the eastern slope of the Green Mountain spine. Today the southerly jet was ripping at 40-50mph on the summit ridge but it was dead calm just below that on the northeast side of the mountain with freezing rain, while the western slope was probably in the 40s. The thing is model soundings show this quite well. With a warm surface, sharply dropping temps aloft until around 3,000 ft, then sharply warming. A lot of times you'll see a sleet sounding for the surface turn into freezing rain for the slopes, because the hydrometeors have no time to refreeze. Likewise, rain for the valley can mean freezing rain when the slope remain sub-freezing. While we may not have many users at these elevations, we still have users and can do a better job. I'm in agreement with upslope too. I don't think we're quite cold enough aloft for a big event, with good ratios, but light accumulations look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The thing is model soundings show this quite well. With a warm surface, sharply dropping temps aloft until around 3,000 ft, then sharply warming. A lot of times you'll see a sleet sounding for the surface turn into freezing rain for the slopes, because the hydrometeors have no time to refreeze. Likewise, rain for the valley can mean freezing rain when the slope remain sub-freezing. While we may not have many users at these elevations, we still have users and can do a better job. I'm in agreement with upslope too. I don't think we're quite cold enough aloft for a big event, with good ratios, but light accumulations look good. Yeah that's exactly what happens... and it seems like the very last elevation to lose the cold air almost always seems to be centered around 2,000-2,500ft or so. And honestly I love the meteorology of when its freezing rain at the summit and sleeting at the office over 2,000ft lower... its so easy to visualize that its warm aloft, rain enters the cold layer and freezes on objects, but further down the mountain it has an additional 2,000-3,000ft thick layer to fall through, freezing into IP by the time it hits the parking lot. I'm forecasting 1-3" for the mountain as far as upslope goes.... probably down here in town we'd be lucky for a coating to an inch at the absolute best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Very dark day in C/NNE. Can't remember a day this dark. We are right at the earliest sunsets, the lowest sun angle and the fact that there is no snow cover makes for a remarkably dark day! I actually (sick as it may be) like it. Especially with the fire roaring and being able to stay indoors. Sunsets start getting earlier now and with any snowcover even overcast days should be brighter than today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The east slopes of the Monads and ORH hills have the same issue. That light NE flow upslopes and "sloshes" up against the hills creating a little cooling and when the NAM shows 2M temps of 33F..it will more likely be 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Man we dodged a bullet (sort of) at the ski resort.... I think pretty much all of what fell was ZR or IP. There's pretty much no snow left down in town aside from a few patches, but once you get above 1,300ft it was obvious they have been holding the cold air as the snowpack jumps to like 3-4" and everything is covered in a little ice. Base area temps at 1,500ft spent all night right around 30-31F and didn't get above freezing until around 11am this morning. Now we've torched briefly into the low 40s but the summit is still holding on at 32-35F. It looked like there was a solid quarter inch of ice on all the trees and stuff up there and the snowpack is now insulated with a very crusty layer. That ice layer will go a long way to keeping what little natural snow is on the hill. Hey so was there no ice/snow accumulation below 1500' this morning in the village? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hey so was there no ice/snow accumulation below 1500' this morning in the village? No there was nothing... first traces of ice/sleet/snow could be seen on the side of the road (pavement glazed over) around 1,200-1,300ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 No there was nothing... first traces of ice/sleet/snow could be seen on the side of the road (pavement glazed over) around 1,200-1,300ft. Thanks powder..these reports are helpful as I don't have really any data to go off of on these minor zr/ip events..im gonna go ahead and assume that this pretty much occurred throughout northern vermont..save some of the northeastern areas in orleans/caledonia/essex counties that probably had a little more cold air to scour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 We had some sleet overnight in Peacham. I couldn't tell if there was snow too but there was a slight covering from it. By the time I headed out at 7am there switch was over to rain and we were at 33. Even at 11 last night we were only at 31.5 and the air felt warm so I was surprised we got anything frozen. We never seemed to get freezing rain. I had to drive to Newport. It was just rain and light too most of the way. There was an accumulation of something frozen in the passing lane around the 150 mile marker up on the Sheffield heights but I couldn't tell you what it was, other than it was frozen. Further north as I came back down in accumulation it warmed again and the frozen stuff was only for a couple mile stretch. No sign of ice accumulation on trees from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The Plymouth and Conway areas have really been holding the cold all day. Woodstock is still in the 32.5F-32.9F range, 1p1F is 35F and Jackson is 34F. I've torched up to 47F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 The east slopes of the Monads and ORH hills have the same issue. That light NE flow upslopes and "sloshes" up against the hills creating a little cooling and when the NAM shows 2M temps of 33F..it will more likely be 30F. I remember that effect well from my thesis, especially in the marginal events. Not that 1998 was marginal, but temps heading down in SNE were, and the observations showed that north and east faces had significantly more ice from that added cooling effect (probably among other factors). Freezing rain can be fascinating like that, how perfect conditions have to be to get a true ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I remember that effect well from my thesis, especially in the marginal events. Not that 1998 was marginal, but temps heading down in SNE were, and the observations showed that north and east faces had significantly more ice from that added cooling effect (probably among other factors). Freezing rain can be fascinating like that, how perfect conditions have to be to get a true ice storm. No doubt. This occurred when the GFS showed 36F temps in Dec 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Temps still climbing actually shot up a couple degrees in the last few hours. Gradually rose from 30 in the morning to 32 by noon 36 by 5, now 40F. Most of the rain fell near 30-35F so still have a solid 2-3" of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Getting a little cold air drainage from the north now. The Sanbornton RWIS has dropped about 4F to 40.6F in 40 minutes. Ashland, Plymouth, and New Hampton are all still stuck in that 34-35F area...still 33.6F at Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Getting a little cold air drainage from the north now. The Sanbornton RWIS has dropped about 4F to 40.6F in 40 minutes. Ashland, Plymouth, and New Hampton are all still stuck in that 34-35F area...still 33.6F at Woodstock. Wow cold spot you've got there... most of N NH is in the mid 40s. Berlin at 44 last update with variable winds. Whitefield at 45. Even the summit of Washington still at 31F just began to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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