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NNE Late Fall & Early Winter


Allenson

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If december sucks ill be worried. Mostly because from what im reading Jan could be good but Feb would be warm again. That means one month of real winter

unless March is way below average so we can hold onto the snow. March has been terrible around here for quite a few years now. Maybe NNE has been ok.

It has been no different here really, The biggest problem i forsee is the sustained cold air, We are going to be in a situation and i think you and i talked about this briefly the other day with getting areas frozen that will have to be accessed by sled, Bogs, Ponds and Lakes, This will have a greater impact then having snow on the ground, As we have seen so far, It can snow in marginal temps but we need sustained cold not just transient shots to really start to lock things up.

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It has been no different here really, The biggest problem i forsee is the sustained cold air, We are going to be in a situation and i think you and i talked about this briefly the other day with getting areas frozen that will have to be accessed by sled, Bogs, Ponds and Lakes, This will have a greater impact then having snow on the ground, As we have seen so far, It can snow in marginal temps but we need sustained cold not just transient shots to really start to lock things up.

your right. Could be alot of Snirt this season. LOL the Hyfax and carbides are going to take a beating.

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I hope we are experiencing the Dec thaw, Jan thaw, annd Feb thaw right now. Let it be cold and snowy from Mid to end of dec thru Feb. I

would be completely content with that.

That would be the ultimate scenario we would like to see, But i don't know how realistic it will be unless we really get some pattern changes out west in AK and over the Davis Straits and right now its not happening..

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That would be the ultimate scenario we would like to see, But i don't know how realistic it will be unless we really get some pattern changes out west in AK and over the Davis Straits and right now its not happening..

how was 06-07 up your way after the the dec and Jan torch? I seem to remember once it got cold it stayed cold till the beginning of march or so.

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how was 06-07 up your way after the the dec and Jan torch? I seem to remember once it got cold it stayed cold till the beginning of march or so.

We were able to salvage Feb and March that year after a horrible Dec and start to Jan, The lakes were still open here in the southern part of the state in early Jan, and i think that was the only year that Sebago did not freeze, Where are you located? I don't see it in your profile

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We were able to salvage Feb and March that year after a horrible Dec and start to Jan, The lakes were still open here in the southern part of the state in early Jan, and i think that was the only year that Sebago did not freeze, Where are you located? I don't see it in your profile

Im in western mass but i travel to the NEK quite a bit to ride. Also ride New Hampshire.

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Im in western mass but i travel to the NEK quite a bit to ride. Also ride New Hampshire.

I ride with a few guys from Mass all the time, Well the odds are better here then down your way in this crap pattern but like i said, The cold will be the key player, Usually by now the ponds have iced over, Not seeing it..

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I ride with a few guys from Mass all the time, Well the odds are better here then down your way in this crap pattern but like i said, The cold will be the key player, Usually by now the ponds have iced over, Not seeing it..

I'm getting nervous for the lack of cold to freeze things up as well. There are so many areas that the trails go through that are not accessible without freezing up. I want snow but I would like some freezing weather first.

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I'm getting nervous for the lack of cold to freeze things up as well. There are so many areas that the trails go through that are not accessible without freezing up. I want snow but I would like some freezing weather first.

Yes exactly, A lot of trails will come to a dead end or there will have to be reroutes if its at all possible, Not good.

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If december sucks ill be worried. Mostly because from what im reading Jan could be good but Feb would be warm again. That means one month of real winter

unless March is way below average so we can hold onto the snow. March has been terrible around here for quite a few years now. Maybe NNE has been ok.

Fraid not; last good March here was 2005, though 08 and 09 were great for sledders due to deep snowpack from earlier storms.

The record (avg March snowfall is 16.9"):

2006: 2.8" and mild. At the time, my least snowy March here. Awful end to an awful winter.

2007: 19.3"and slightly cool. I'd call it just above avg, mainly due to nice storms 2nd and 17th.

2008: 18.8" and cool. Mediocre end to great winter, no 4" storms after 3/1.

2009: 7.5" and slightly cool. 5.6" on 3/2 ended winter, a fizzle after a good season capped by the 2/22-23 dump.

2010: 0.6" and mildest March, 2.7F above #2. Somehow, even worse than 3/06, and by a lot.

2011: 10.6" and slightly cool. Much better for folks to my west and NW.

The lakes were still open here in the southern part of the state in early Jan, and i think that was the only year that Sebago did not freeze,

I think the north part of Sebago caught in early Feb of 2007 (my coldest Feb of 13 here.) It was 2010 when the big icefishing derby had to be canceled because of unsafe ice.

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We just had a shower of rain mixed with flakes or graupel or something frozen here at 1,500ft.

Yeah, there must be some cool air up there somewhere – I haven’t looked at any model maps, but snow is in the Mansfield point forecast tonight, Friday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and even Wednesday based on the NWS long term discussion. Even our valley forecast has snow in it from Friday on, so it’s not just the higher elevations.

I'm not worried yet.. I think this winter will be decent for NNE. I don't remember many years (if any) where NNE had consistently cold/snowy conditions from Thanksgiving to Xmas. There is usually a pretty thorough thaw in there somewhere. Better to get it out of the way now than in mid-December when the real base building usually begins. If in two weeks there is still no snow, soggy ground and no snow in the forecast, then I will be worried about wasting prime ski season.

November can certainly be flighty with snow even for the mountainous areas of Northern Vermont as I showed in my 2006-2011 plot of November snowfall, but December is a different story. I think the December would have to be extremely anomalous to really get concerned around here. Even December 2006, which from what I understand was pretty darn low on the scale of “wintry” (folks can give their perspective on where it ranks in the bigger scheme of things), delivered over 20 inches of snow here in the valley, and of course more in the mountains. It'll be interesting to see where December 2011 is going to come in, but the current December snowfall average is 45.0 ± 18.2 inches here in the valley based on the past five years worth of data, so it takes a big deviation to keep December from producing at least decent snowfall:

0612decembersnowfall.jpg

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Kinda late with this, but 12z gfs was depressing - actually, 06z was depressing given the "possibles" and colder wx I'd seen on runs earlier this week, but 12z was much worse. Instead of a marginal R/S even leading into cold next week, we get another torch-deluge, only a much longer rain period than in today's weirdness.

Maybe there will be snow in Illinois when I'm out there over New Years.

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I climbed saddleback today and it felt to be about 30F at the summit.. on my way down there was a little sleet at 3700-3900'. First sign of winter.. lawns in the valley still pretty green. It felt pretty spring like until I got to the top of the ridge about 3600' when the wind picked up and the temperature got close to freezing. Beautiful hike with the setting sun filtering through the clouds and patches of precip falling from a few of them.

Also a few drifts of snow left above 4000'.. surprised me to find them given the whole mountain was running like a river from the rain. There must have been some strong winds that drifted the snow onto the leeward side of the summit ridge.

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Oh and I forgot to mention that we did get a good little shot of freezing rain and sleet last night up here at the mountain.

Everything is glazed with at least a 1/10th of an inch of ice with some sleet on top... even the parking lots and RT 108 above 1,400ft is like a skating rink. My ABS engaged when I was turning into the resort and I thought that was odd until I saw the work trucks encased in ice with an accumulation of sleet pellets at the base of the wind-shields.

Blurry cam shot but you can see the white on the roof-top which is a mix of IP/ZR. I see MVL reported a few hours of -RN in the valley, but must've been cold enough for ZR up here.

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Oh and I forgot to mention that we did get a good little shot of freezing rain and sleet last night up here at the mountain.

Everything is glazed with at least a 1/10th of an inch of ice with some sleet on top... even the parking lots and RT 108 above 1,400ft is like a skating rink. My ABS engaged when I was turning into the resort and I thought that was odd until I saw the work trucks encased in ice with an accumulation of sleet pellets at the base of the wind-shields.

I see MVL reported a few hours of -RN in the valley, but must've been cold enough for ZR up here.

We had a quick shot of some of that precipitation last night as well - at first I thought it was sleet because of how loud the drops were on the leaves in the woods, but I didn't see anything frozen down at our elevation.

Listening to Roger Hill’s first broadcast this morning, it sounds like the upcoming snow chances are tomorrow afternoon when that small frontal system comes through, and then the first half of next week with that strung out system. That one has some warmth with it, but certainly the potential for some snow. The BTV NWS discussion talks about both of these events as well.

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We had a quick shot of some of that precipitation last night as well - at first I thought it was sleet because of how loud the drops were on the leaves in the woods, but I didn't see anything frozen down at our elevation.

Listening to Roger Hill’s first broadcast this morning, it sounds like the upcoming snow chances are tomorrow afternoon when that small frontal system comes through, and then the first half of next week with that strung out system. That one has some warmth with it, but certainly the potential for some snow. The BTV NWS discussion talks about both of these events as well.

I think tomorrow has the shot to produce 1-2" of snow in a short period of time across the Greens. Upslope flow and moisture pooling ahead of the front along with steep lapse rates from morning surface heating, I could see up to an inch in the valleys around the Green Mtns and 1-2" in the higher elevations.

It'll at least be something interesting to monitor tomorrow if we get some good squalls to develop.

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couple decent snow squalls last night coming over sheffield heights, fun to watch the temps drop out. woke up to 24F. bit of bite to the air with a nice sunrise.

out of curiosity, is there a term for these clouds that just hang on the ridge, I love em, you can still make out all the bumps and humps under the clouds, they seem to saran wrap the contours of the ridgeline. would a been a great morning to be on top. jealous today PF

IMG_2678.jpg

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couple decent snow squalls last night coming over sheffield heights, fun to watch the temps drop out. woke up to 24F. bit of bite to the air with a nice sunrise.

out of curiosity, is there a term for these clouds that just hang on the ridge, I love em, you can still make out all the bumps and humps under the clouds, they seem to saran wrap the contours of the ridgeline. would a been a great morning to be on top. jealous today PF

That is one hell of a view! I'm about to head up top and see what we've got up there. I likewise would like to know the name of those clouds... I love 'em. They just drape themselves on the ridgelines and hang there. Jay looks white and good to hear you had some snow squalls. I can't find any trace of actual snowflakes here, just that icy clear mix of pellets and ZR on everything.

Nice view from the BTV air field this morning...

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Oh and I forgot to mention that we did get a good little shot of freezing rain and sleet last night up here at the mountain.

Everything is glazed with at least a 1/10th of an inch of ice with some sleet on top... even the parking lots and RT 108 above 1,400ft is like a skating rink. My ABS engaged when I was turning into the resort and I thought that was odd until I saw the work trucks encased in ice with an accumulation of sleet pellets at the base of the wind-shields.

Blurry cam shot but you can see the white on the roof-top which is a mix of IP/ZR. I see MVL reported a few hours of -RN in the valley, but must've been cold enough for ZR up here.

Hey powderfreak,

Is this your webcam at 1500' elevation? I have the link saved on WxUnderground but it would be nice to know the exact elevation of that cam. Thanks

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