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NNE Late Fall & Early Winter


Allenson

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Currently torching at Mansfield... record high type stuff for November 29:

4,000ft...51F

2,500ft...56F

1,500ft...53F (high so far of 55F)

Sugarbush is showing the same mid-elevation warm layer:

Top...47F

Mid...57F

Base...51F

Pretty easy to tell there are various thermal layers around here because there's a layer of low haze near the valley bottoms, then another layer of cloud about 500ft thick around 2,500ft-3,000ft, then you pop out of that layer and there's another one that looks to be up around 5-6,000ft. There's some cool undercast views sandwiched between layers of clouds at the top of the mountain.

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Well, topped 50 for a spell yesterday. Had a pretty mild night last night too overall...although it was still back down to 39F when I got up this morning.

When I left the house, it was 40F and 1700' linear feet later and 100' higher in elevation at the top of the driveway, it was 48F. A mile down the road and into the hollow, back down into the upper 30s. Never seen anything quite like this.

Looks like one of those south-to-north train lashings of rain later tonight.

Still had an inch or two of snow in the yard this morning but it was going quickly. High dews and fog just chewing it up and spitting it out. I reckon at this point it's better if we can get some good cold air again, try and get that ground frozen back up and then have some snow... I'll see what I can do. ;)

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Did this inversion pattern make it that far east or was it situated higher up? Here those were the exact elevations that lost the snow first. Still have some snowbanks and north facing piles in town at 800ft but snows been long gone from 1,500-2,000ft for a few days now.

Another 47F degree morning at 1,500ft while MVL in the valley is sitting at 41-42F. At least its better than the 55F yesterday morning up here.

I don't think it made it thru the Whites - MWN stayed mid 30s yest. Warm air got to the lower levels there today, however, with 60+ HIE/BML. Except for tidewater frontage, Maine has remained in the 40s today (35 at FVL), after some spots were 63-64 yest.

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All out torch. The warmth has made it here in a big way. 56.7/56.7

Haha its 4:10am on November 30th and it is 59/55 at MVL. Jesus H.

I'm honestly scared about what I am going to find when I get to the mountain here at 5am. I can't imagine there is any snow left... I mean MVL has not dropped below 57F since noon yesterday. That's disgusting.

4am temps...

4,000ft...49F

1,600ft...54F

730ft...59F

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Haha its 4:10am on November 30th and it is 59/55 at MVL. Jesus H.

I'm honestly scared about what I am going to find when I get to the mountain here at 5am. I can't imagine there is any snow left... I mean MVL has not dropped below 57F since noon yesterday. That's disgusting.

4am temps...

4,000ft...49F

1,600ft...54F

730ft...59F

AND it poured rain.

THen it's going to get windy and cold. And not snow. Then it's going to warm up. And rain. And freeze.

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The rain gauge contained 0.48” of liquid in it this morning, and as this is the last reading that will be taken for the month, total liquid for November comes in at 2.04” for this location. More than half of the liquid (1.19”) came in the form of snow (11.4”), and while that amount of snowfall is roughly average based on the numbers I have, I suspect that receiving more than half of the November liquid as snow is on the high side. This has easily been the driest month of the 2011 calendar year, with January as second driest at 2.94” of total liquid; however, this event did push the year’s total liquid past 60”.

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As I posted in the ski thread....

My last 5 morning 6am temperatures at 1,500ft were:

44F

39F

55F

47F

53F today

Have not been below freezing (or anywhere close to freezing) at 1,500ft in northern Vermont in over 120 hours. This is an all out TORCH. Departures of like 20-30F above normal. These two 50+ degree mornings are over 30 degrees above normal for late November at this elevation (should be low 20s at 12z here). Due to the inversion, departures at MVL have been running less. The first two days of the torch weren't even all that bad down at MVL with overnight lows below freezing and daytime highs mid 30s. Up here its just been a roast.

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Was 38 at 9 last night, 58 with strong S winds at 7 AM, though the rain had just about ended, with 0.85" in the bucket.

58 at dawn? My smoothed avg high/low for Nov 30 is 38/20, so the morning "low" is 20F milder than the normal high! At 8 AM, MLT was reporting +RA and 62. Aauuggghhhh!

The green certification people will be on our landbase Dec 12-16, and they hope to include some active harvests on their itinerary. Not looking too good for that. This event will shut down whatever operations (if any) that had been working. They would need some near-zero mornings and 6-12" snow to set up cutting on the freeze, and I certainly can't see that happening over the next two weeks.

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I can honestly say that this pattern confuses me. A lot.

Its warm. That's all there is to it haha. Right now the right forecast is to hedge your bets warm until proven otherwise unfortunately.

We are open today but just barely. Groomers made a heroic effort this morning to patch it together. It looks pretty filthy though. Never surrender haha.

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Wow! 54F this morning at the house, dropped a whole 4F from last night. Even the honking SW wind felt warm.

Seemed a little ridiculous battening down the tarp for the rink in a T shirt at 6 AM on the last day of Nov in N VT

I can't belive it, but I think the grass is growing.

Same here. Looked at my wife this morning and we agreed the grass seemed to "green up" overnight. This is painful. Any early season snowmobiling is not happening. At this rate, it might be Jan before most trails are rideable.

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Same here. Looked at my wife this morning and we agreed the grass seemed to "green up" overnight. This is painful. Any early season snowmobiling is not happening. At this rate, it might be Jan before most trails are rideable.

I don't really do much riding until then anyways...NBD

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Same here. Looked at my wife this morning and we agreed the grass seemed to "green up" overnight. This is painful. Any early season snowmobiling is not happening. At this rate, it might be Jan before most trails are rideable.

Agreed. This is terrible. Could be a very very short riding season with marginal riding conditions. I'm not impressed at all. 06-07 season but worse is my prediction.

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I'm not worried yet.. I think this winter will be decent for NNE. I don't remember many years (if any) where NNE had consistently cold/snowy conditions from Thanksgiving to Xmas. There is usually a pretty thorough thaw in there somewhere. Better to get it out of the way now than in mid-December when the real base building usually begins. If in two weeks there is still no snow, soggy ground and no snow in the forecast, then I will be worried about wasting prime ski season.

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I'm not worried yet.. I think this winter will be decent for NNE. I don't remember many years (if any) where NNE had consistently cold/snowy conditions from Thanksgiving to Xmas. There is usually a pretty thorough thaw in there somewhere. Better to get it out of the way now than in mid-December when the real base building usually begins. If in two weeks there is still no snow, soggy ground and no snow in the forecast, then I will be worried about wasting prime ski season.

If december sucks ill be worried. Mostly because from what im reading Jan could be good but Feb would be warm again. That means one month of real winter

unless March is way below average so we can hold onto the snow. March has been terrible around here for quite a few years now. Maybe NNE has been ok.

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