icebreaker5221 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 It appears that an X-class solar flare has occurred in the last hour, courtesy sunspot 11339. This sunspot has just become visible to Earth the last 2 days, and will continue to align more directly with Earth over the next 2 weeks. Expect solar flares of at least M class to continue, with active Aurora Borealis. http://spaceweather.com/ http://www.swpc.noaa...ts/xray_5m.html http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html Edit to add: Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image, with active region upper-left Solar x-ray flux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I woild not be too bullish on big aurbos right now because we don't yet know what stage of development region 1339 is in. The flare is shown to be a X1.9 at maximum. No other data is yet avilable on the event. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 what effects does this have on the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Hoping for an earth directed CME for aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Hoping for an earth directed CME for aurora. The current location for the active region is not favorable for an Earth directed CME though a glancing blow is possible. Fixed frequency radio data on the flare is in and we had a 620 sfu 10Flare but so far no Type II or IV sweep frequency reports. There was umbral coverage with the optical which was a 2B classification. A magnetic crochet (sudden deviation in the horizontal Gemag component caused by flare generated electrical currents in the ionosphere) was observed. The group is now classed as a Ekc Beta-Gamma-Delta and the magnetograms are suggesting that it may be reversed polarity two qualities suggestive of a strong flare producing region. However, aurorae depend upon more than just a CME hit, the CME has to have the right magnetic properties and that we can't tell from the flare producing region or any flares that occur but not until the CME actually gets about one million miles out. We can alert on the possibility but tha't the best we can do. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 The current location for the active region is not favorable for an Earth directed CME though a glancing blow is possible. Steve So we should not even be on the watch from this sunspot? I'd really like to see aurora this year. Or will it just take a couple of days to align toward earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong aslkahuna, since it sounds like this is your area of expertise, but I would expect it to be better aligned with Earth in a couple of days. That would be the time we'd be most likely to see aurora out of this sunspot ... if it hold together. Given it's size, I would not expect it to disappear in 4 days, even if it is in a weakening stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I have never seen the northern lights here in SE PA. Would love to in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 How many Carrington Events for Philly? (Ducking and Running) Seriously, though - about 4 days till it could produce an earth-directed CME, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong aslkahuna, since it sounds like this is your area of expertise, but I would expect it to be better aligned with Earth in a couple of days. That would be the time we'd be most likely to see aurora out of this sunspot ... if it hold together. Given it's size, I would not expect it to disappear in 4 days, even if it is in a weakening stage. You are correct if the group holds together it could pose a better chance for a Gemag producing CME and aurora. Thus we should monitor it through disk passage but realize that the best chances occur when the group is near the CM. A perfect example is the group that produced the monster flare precisely 8 years ago-when it was at CM a smaller though still quite strong flare/CME combo produced the 5th strongest Gemag on record (including 1859 in the record-GEMAG records go back some time) but the CME from the monster flare which was near the limb didn't do a great deal. As far as decay, the classification of the group suggests that it's at peak development. Spot groups can grow explosively (akin to hurricane RIs) but generally take a week or two to decay into a unipolar status. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NOAA gives a 10% chance of an X class flare an 70% of an M Class flare directed at earth over the next 24 hours from sunspot 1339.. With clear skies over the east.. I'll surely be monitoring this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Really thought something would flare yesterday, guess not. Times a ticking for this sunspot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Really thought something would flare yesterday, guess not. Times a ticking for this sunspot Yup, time is almost out. Near real-time status (lots of interesting stuff to see re: 1339 down at the bottom of the page: http://www.lmsal.com.../latest_events/ Forecast: http://www.lmsal.com...ecast/wind.html 4 day closeup loop of 1339 http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/AR/1339/HMI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Yup, time is almost out. Near real-time status (lots of interesting stuff to see re: 1339 down at the bottom of the page: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ What's interesting? All I see is c class flares Forecast: http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/wind.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 What's Interesting? All I see is c class flares. No so much the c class flares but the presentation of the data for those looking for a one-stop shop for an event. Here's another one: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/# The iSol Events Knowledgebase in the middle of the page is particularly useful for a quick look at current flux, flares, CME's and active regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Its looks like the risk of an M class and X flares are both down to 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It's evident that 1339 peaked before rotating onto the visible disk and was in slow decay throughout disk passage. Though classed as a Fkc Beta-Gamma-Delta type group, properties which usually mean a very active group, it was evident that the intensity of the mag fields along with the gradients and magnetic shear were lacking according to Kitt Peak magnetograms. This is why I caution against expecting fireworks when a region comes onto the disk with intense activity. I've seen many groups do this and completely fizzle while others start out quiet and blast us to pieces before they leave and others are just plain mean all of the way across. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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