Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 unless he ends up being wrong! Eh, very few people who think that LR forecasting is an accurate science. Odds are in zwts favor that he ends up more right than wrong imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 unless he ends up being wrong! Most people won't even remember who made the forecast 2 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Most people won't even remember who made the forecast 2 weeks from now. I know, it was more in jest than anything else but I don't think Matt would care one bit if he was too low on the snow and cold; I mean, if that's the direction of the bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 I know, it was more in jest than anything else but I don't think Matt would care one bit if he was too low on the snow and cold; I mean, if that's the direction of the bust I hope I bust low...I think we will have to get lucky or hope Nina isn't a big factor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 looks good in the paper nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I hope I bust low...I think we will have to get lucky or hope Nina isn't a big factor.... yeah, that's why I don't even bother to do a forecast no matter what I may forecast, my snow bias would always shine through and I would always want to bust low to be a tortured snow weenie through winters such as 72/74, 80/81, 91/92 and 01/02 only to have also experienced winters of mid the 60's, late 70's, 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10, will fook up your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I wouldn't mind the winter shaking out average on temps and average with snow. Let the snow and cold come in Dec - Mid Feb and then warm it on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I wouldn't mind the winter shaking out average on temps and average with snow. Let the snow and cold come in Dec - Mid Feb and then warm it on up. I thought I knew you! here, take your ring back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I thought I knew you! here, take your ring back.... LOL Reverse psychology man! However, a winter of normal snow and temps or better over the last 20 years has been few and far between..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I feel really good about your forecast. If it works as well as your forecast for last week, we've got it made. Historic winter coming up. Dude I didn't bust in my backyeard. NWS said 4-8" I said expect nothing, I got maybe 1.5" or 2" on grassy areas, so I was more accurate than NWS. . NWS would have verified if it stayed snow after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I read the Capital Gangs winter forecast 2011-2012 the other day. BRAVO on there forecast. They did a wonderful job. Typical La Nina forecast. One thing that sticks out to me is originally Mets were thinking a med-strong La Nina. Now it looks like a weak La Nina. That actually will play a better role for snow for us. That is for the snow lovers. I have never been to crazy about winter. But what can I do anyways. Spring is only 5+ months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Kudos to the Capital Weather Gang. Solid forecast, and resonable for the airports. On a side note, my winter forecast is looking golden as well (especially if the October 29th event is any indication) The areas N & W of DC were the "jackpot". The Northern Shenandoah Valley got a solid 5-6 inches and amounts tapered off the further S & E you went. This is what you should expect this winter and it will be in line with a more "traditional" winter as you see the snowfall amount maps are produced. I-81 this will be an eventful and enjoyable winter. I-95 you guys can drive N & W to see the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Kudos to the Capital Weather Gang. Solid forecast, and resonable for the airports. On a side note, my winter forecast is looking golden as well (especially if the October 29th event is any indication) The areas N & W of DC were the "jackpot". The Northern Shenandoah Valley got a solid 5-6 inches and amounts tapered off the further S & E you went. This is what you should expect this winter and it will be in line with a more "traditional" winter as you see the snowfall amount maps are produced. I-81 this will be an eventful and enjoyable winter. I-95 you guys can drive N & W to see the snow. I think philly and nyc will be ok with snow although the burbs there will also have alot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 On a side note, my winter forecast is looking golden as well (especially if the October 29th event is any indication) wut da hell?? The areas N & W of DC were the "jackpot". The Northern Shenandoah Valley got a solid 5-6 inches and amounts tapered off the further S & E you went. This is what you should expect this winter and it will be in line with a more "traditional" winter as you see the snowfall amount maps are produced. I think philly and nyc will be ok with snow although the burbs there will also have alot more. Thats called climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Kudos to the Capital Weather Gang. Solid forecast, and resonable for the airports. On a side note, my winter forecast is looking golden as well (especially if the October 29th event is any indication) The areas N & W of DC were the "jackpot". The Northern Shenandoah Valley got a solid 5-6 inches and amounts tapered off the further S & E you went. This is what you should expect this winter and it will be in line with a more "traditional" winter as you see the snowfall amount maps are produced. I-81 this will be an eventful and enjoyable winter. I-95 you guys can drive N & W to see the snow. Worst post ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 wut da hell?? I agree and I think climo this year means more than in recent years. Thats called climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Worst post ever I know reality bites...some in that area consider moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 christ-o-mighty Might as well hug the hourly CFS now http://www.woeurope....E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 christ-o-mighty Might as well hug the hourly CFS now http://www.woeurope....E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Early part of the run isn't great with warmth flooding the contiguous 48 in early December, but a massive GL storm and the movement of the PV into our hemisphere bodes for a chilly middle to end of the the month. CAUTION! CARE SHOULD BE USED WHEN USING THIS MODEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Early part of the run isn't great with warmth flooding the contiguous 48 in early December, but a massive GL storm and the movement of the PV into our hemisphere bodes for a chilly middle to end of the the month. Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 analogs looking good so far...lots of time left and DJF are what matter in the end anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 analogs looking good so far...lots of time left and DJF are what matter in the end anyway I was familiar with 43/44 and 44/45 for DC, but just checked those seasons for Baltimore-- ha!. A similar echo of either of those two winters would cause a subforum meltdown, on the scale of the Philly/NYC split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 I was familiar with 43/44 and 44/45 for DC, but just checked those seasons for Baltimore-- ha!. A similar echo of either of those two winters would cause a subforum meltdown, on the scale of the Philly/NYC split. yes...quite the gradient....Those 2 are very loose analogs...during the period when we were switching to a -PDO regime but not quite there yet.....This winter should have much more of a -PNA look....and enso will be more of a factor.....They were Nina hangover winters and but think the guidance as far as temps/snow with those winters is decent....we should do better snow wise than both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I've never understood the "Nino hangover" thing. The atmosphere is what initiates and drives ENSO after all, it is ENSO in a sense, so what would be causing a supposed hangover? Changes in subsurface anomalies can only truly result from a change in the amount of incoming shortwave radiation into the oceans, and that is linked to the global wind and pressure budget causing changes in cloud and surface wind patterns altering upwelling/downwelling, and all of that follows the geomag sun disturbance level almost to a tee. Thats why I think La Ninas like 1999/00 and 2010/11 were polar opposites both following strong Nino's, the geomagnetic disruption that occured years earlier one remained active with pressuring while the other did not. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 1321242382[/url]' post='1116559']I've never understood the "Nino hangover" thing. The atmosphere is what initiates and drives ENSO after all, it is ENSO in a sense, so what would be causing a supposed hangover? Changes in subsurface anomalies can only truly result from a change in the amount of incoming shortwave radiation into the oceans, and that is linked to the global wind and pressure budget causing changes in cloud and surface wind patterns altering upwelling/downwelling, and all of that follows the geomag sun disturbance level almost to a tee. Thats why I think La Ninas like 1999/00 and 2010/11 were polar opposites both following strong Nino's, the geomagnetic disruption that occured years earlier one remained active with pressuring while the other did not. Am I missing something? The term is meant to be taken very loosely but in the means neutral winters and weaker enso winters tend to take on some of the characteristics of the prior enso state......1998-99/2010-11 aren't good examples of a "hangover" since enso flipped and was fairly strong in both cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The term is meant to be taken very loosely but in the means neutral winters and weaker enso winters tend to take on some of the characteristics of the prior enso state......1998-99/2010-11 aren't good examples of a "hangover" since enso flipped and was fairly strong in both cases. Oh ok, so 2008/09 might be a good example of a "hangover" year after 2007/08? Makes some sense with SST reflective memory? In that case 2010/11 was a Nina but behaved like the preceding Nino in some ways except in both cases (1999 and 2011) the common aspect to the preceding ENSO was the blocking state, and 1997/98, 1998/99, and 1999/00 were all sh*tty years for blocking, then 2000/01 unexpectedly changed regime. So I guess my big question is whether you think the connection to previous ENSO's is truly ENSO-based or "blocking"-based? If it were blocking based maybe it fits with the geomag sun hypothesis since the sequence there is evident, but if there is correlation found in the QBO/MJO connection it might be more SST memory based? In that case I can't figure out how it'd last more than 1 year after the ENSO change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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