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Capital Weather Gang 2011-12 Winter Outlook


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i like how matt calls himself a Met lol

VE ALWAYS WONDERED.

How exactly do meterologists predict the weather for an entire season? Do they use data from earlier in the year or do they use information from winters past?

A.MATT ROSS :We cover that a bit in our winter outlook. Usually seasonal outlooks rely on a blend of analog years and indices. I think information from winter's past is certainly integral to any outlook, even if any one year alone is used loosely as a rough guide

we refers to CWG, not to mets....How did you graduate college? ;)

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I am a slow typist....last year I had the questions well in advance so I could answer early and publish when needed...this year I didn't see a single question until 2 and some of them were bad

you got all my questions so you win. though im not sure you actually answered the last one.. ;)

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thanks...a few made Blizz22 look like a pulitzer winning scribe,......and I mostly avoided the global warming stuff

yeah i've only done the chat once and there were a lot of bad questions.

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you use that line a fair amount...not sure why

Because I like burgers and fries...plus I think It would be funny if someone doing a chat like that is actually sitting there eating while answering questions....after 7 years I would bet I have used a lot of lines a fair amount...anyway you answered my question on the chat...thanks.

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im still not sure why NOAA got a hard time for their outlook around here. it's pretty similar if you look past the equal chances stuff.

I'll start with "I don't know squat", but I can watch trends like anybody else.

WRT Noaa's long lead forecasts, I've been watching them since the summer. They have progressively grown colder for the DJF period. Forecasts this summer put our area into a slight chance for above normal temps (DJF) and below normal precip as close as SE Va. They have continually gotten colder with the temps with any above normal now hundreds of miles from us, and above normal precip starting to make its way over the Apps.

What this means in reality is anyones guess, but at least the trend in the forecasts has been in our favor.

BTW, to all of you guys who worked on the outlook, nice job.

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whats going on here?post-514-0-61103000-1320353985.png

There are a few on CWG who feel duty-bound to pander to snow haters and warministas as much as possible...It is annoying, but it is what it is....If you go to the FB page during our 1st good snow, there are bound to be multiple updates encouraging people to talk about how much they hate the snow and how life would be awesome if it were 85 and sunny every day of the year.....

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There are a few on CWG who feel duty-bound to pander to snow haters and warministas as much as possible...It is annoying, but it is what it is....If you go to the FB page during our 1st good snow, there are bound to be multiple updates encouraging people to talk about how much they hate the snow and how life would be awesome if it were 85 and sunny every day of the year.....

How can someone who mostly enjoys a distinct lack of weather be on the staff of an organization devoted to weather? Anyway, good forecast zwyts. Seems like a well-researched look at everything.

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Good writeup zwts. Logical and to the point.

This winter could easily be quite similar to last winter in the big picture. Only reason we didn't go above to alot above normal last year is because we missed by inches with alot of threats. Sure, its easy to say that miller b's pretty much screw us everytime but the fact that the SE and the VA tidewater area did really well is interesting. It was the year of being skipped or suppressed in our area. Maybe we end up in the crosshairs a bit more? NS looks to be active enough.

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How can someone who mostly enjoys a distinct lack of weather be on the staff of a organization devoted to weather? Anyway, good forecast zwyts. Seems like a well-researched look at everything.

I think he's talking about the people that post in the comments under the various articles , not about the staff. I think the latter are all pretty much weather weenies or they wouldn't be on the staff.

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How can someone who mostly enjoys a distinct lack of weather be on the staff of a organization devoted to weather? Anyway, good forecast zwyts. Seems like a well-researched look at everything.

Today was a nice day. Everyone loves a nice day... You can tell because the weather boards and blogs generally die. I'm pretty sure you can like a sunny day in the 60s and still be a wx geek. Obviously no one truly wants it all the time unless they live in socal.

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Very easy read.

I've updated my forecast for DCA and N VA - I am expecting 17 to 24 inches of snow for the winter. (I had been predicting 9 inches for the season.)

It only takes one big anomalous snowfall to skew a forecast - and 2011 has already been a big year for anomalous weather events.

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