Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-winter-weather-forecast-2011-2012/2011/11/02/gIQAHXChiM_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Well done Matt. Easy read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Very reasonable for a Nina winter around here....this kind of forecast will verify more on the right side more often than not for the DC area regardless of ENSO in my opinion....not saying it is easy or plug and play but it is definitely the safe/realistic common sense way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm doing a chat at 2 http://live.washingtonpost.com/weather-111103.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Very reasonable for a Nina winter around here....this kind of forecast will verify more on the right side more often than not for the DC area regardless of ENSO in my opinion....not saying it is easy or plug and play but it is definitely the safe/realistic common sense way to go im still not sure why NOAA got a hard time for their outlook around here. it's pretty similar if you look past the equal chances stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 im still not sure why NOAA got a hard time for their outlook around here. it's pretty similar if you look past the equal chances stuff. I think uncertainty is super high this winter....The talented people I consult for advice this time every year were all more uncertain than in years past....so I am happy with the numbers....we know the PDO will be negative in the means....but there are conflicting signals otherwise and there are a lot of questions about how much ENSO will be a player and how much blocking we will have....We have had a big cold month every winter since 2004-05 except for 2007-08......but I couldn't pull the trigger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I think uncertainty is super high this winter....The talented people I consult for advice this time every year were all more uncertain than in years past....so I am happy with the numbers....we know the PDO will be negative in the means....but there are conflicting signals otherwise and there are a lot of questions about how much ENSO will be a player and how much blocking we will have....We have had a big cold month every winter since 2004-05 except for 2007-08......but I couldn't pull the trigger... i think the outlook is good. hard to run far from average on either category unless there are multiple factors screaming at you i think. i just remember people like DT and others saying that NOAA didnt take a stand etc. im not sure they could.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 This winter has the feel of something like cold and wet the first 10 days of the month then warm and dry the next 10-12 then cool and damp to end the month shifting to the cold and wet part for the first half of the next month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 i think the outlook is good. hard to run far from average on either category unless there are multiple factors screaming at you i think. i just remember people like DT and others saying that NOAA didnt take a stand etc. im not sure they could.... It is a tough winter....If people went big and they verify, then kudos.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 It is a tough winter....If people went big and they verify, then kudos.... With an average of 14"....big is a 20" winter...only takes one crazy moisture laden storm to screw up a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 With an average of 14"....big is a 20" winter...only takes one crazy moisture laden storm to screw up a forecast. yet it wouldn't have screwed up a climo or lower forecast in 20 out of the last 23 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 yet it wouldn't have screwed up a climo or lower forecast in 20 out of the last 23 winters everyone loves the big storm fantasy scenario.. what if it would have snowed 10" on dec 26 last year?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 everyone loves the big storm fantasy scenario.. what if it would have snowed 10" on dec 26 last year?!! models have screwed this up a bit....It sucked that we missed out on 12/26 but it was never a huge storm for us...we missed a 3-5" event.....there were no double digit totals anywhere near us.....even if that storm hits, it is still an average winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 yet it wouldn't have screwed up a climo or lower forecast in 20 out of the last 23 winters I hear your point mine is a what if we had normal snow plus one biggie not if one of the snows we get IS a biggie....besides 14" and 20" are basically the same thing in my book anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 I hear your point mine is a what if we had normal snow plus one biggie not if one of the snows we get IS a biggie....besides 14" and 20" are basically the same thing in my book anyway when do we ever get that?.....1999-2000 is closest and most of us were still not much above climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 HM is changing his DC forecast to more snow than he originally thought. Wonder what set that off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 when do we ever get that?.....1999-2000 is closest and most of us were still not much above climo I know...what if's are a wonderful thing in print but rarely happen...what if I were taller and had more hair...just sayin. Anyhow I went with 17.2 on the capital gang guess because what if we get two 3-4" storms three 1-3" storms and one 8" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 i think the outlook is good. hard to run far from average on either category unless there are multiple factors screaming at you i think. i just remember people like DT and others saying that NOAA didnt take a stand etc. im not sure they could.... I think people tend to be too hard on CPC's forecasts but sometimes putting out a forecast of equal chances is not bad and actually tells you something. In this case, not to take any forecast too seriously as there is lots of uncertainty, even more than usual. A weak to moderate nina, uncertainty about the strength of any negative nao should it occur and what role the MJO might have in the forecast makes this one particularly hard. The qbo also might argue for increased chances of a stratospheric warming event but you have a better chance in a nino and easterly qbo then a nina. I like Matt's forecast but....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 HM is changing his DC forecast to more snow than he originally thought. Wonder what set that off? He is seeing a big storm and/or period here in early to mid January.....and he is not the only one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nice write up, very well reasoned and explained. The long term negative shift in the NAO, should it remain sustained, will obviously be the key we are all looking for in snowfall totals that exceed the consensus forecasts for now and probably years to come. You indicate winter will be colder earlier / milder late but no early hints on spring? Will it be cool and wet again like 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 i like how matt calls himself a Met lol VE ALWAYS WONDERED. How exactly do meterologists predict the weather for an entire season? Do they use data from earlier in the year or do they use information from winters past? – November 03, 2011 1:29 PM Permalink A.MATT ROSS :We cover that a bit in our winter outlook. Usually seasonal outlooks rely on a blend of analog years and indices. I think information from winter's past is certainly integral to any outlook, even if any one year alone is used loosely as a rough guide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I've had 2 of my 3 questions answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I've had 2 of my 3 questions answered. Congrats Cleveland Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Anyone get today's lottery numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Can you really call it a chat when there is a 20 minute delay from asking a question to getting the answer? It's more like a first date...."hi"...awkward 20 minute silence..."hi back"...awkward 20 minute silence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Congrats Cleveland Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Congrats Cleveland Park w00t i submitted another. i think i have a reasonable shot of going 3 for 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 w00t i submitted another. i think i have a reasonable shot of going 3 for 4. I am 0 for 1 Global warming question ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I got mine answered....I wonder if Matt is eating a big ole burger and fries while doing this....might explain the delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I got mine answered....I wonder if Matt is eating a big ole burger and fries while doing this....might explain the delay i dont think computers were invented yet when he was in school so probably never had a typing class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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