Chris L Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Ahh, memories... let's get another. Safe to say, this probably dumped 30"+ all over the area; while the main issue was blowing and drifting snow; I have some doubts that NYC under measured this one also. Some locations, such as John's location in Union County had 30", I also believe Newark undermeasured a tad. But we'll never know the truth if it actually the topped the January 1996 blizzard snow total... I measured 24" but some spots of my area were 27-28 inches to 33 inches in shade areas which is perhaps due to blown snow. enjoy the read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. I really hope someone digs that up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. Yea for multiple runs as well, so now this write up had an initialization error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I really hope someone digs that up... Its possible somebody who worked on that article didn't want to take a shot at them for whatever reason and that could be why it was conveniently left out. Some of the articles on the 12/25/02 storm also neglect to mention they were strongly urging disregard for the GFS most of the 3 days leading up to it and hence why there were some busted forecasts on that event from people using mainly the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Ahh, memories... let's get another. Safe to say, this probably dumped 30"+ all over the area; while the main issue was blowing and drifting snow; I have some doubts that NYC under measured this one also. Some locations, such as John's location in Union County had 30", I also believe Newark undermeasured a tad. But we'll never know the truth if it actually the topped the January 1996 blizzard snow total... I measured 24" but some spots of my area were 27-28 inches to 33 inches in shade areas which is perhaps due to blown snow. enjoy the read. Amazing storm. 25" IMBY, rt 18 closed for days, 30"+ on the NJ coast, etc. When will Kocin's 3rd book be out? He should add this latest oct storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 thats superband porn for many eastern NJ locals.....oh the memories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 What a great storm. My area recorded 25 inches with drifts near 10 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 This was not your everyday snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. Well, they did include this sentence on page 49 which I think does justice. Don't think it's necessary to call them out on that fine detail of their Christmas eve morning discussion. "Therefore, HPC forecasters did not believe the trends in the GFS, GEFS or SREFS forecasts until Christmas morning, only 36 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 thats superband porn for many eastern NJ locals.....oh the memories! 2-3"/hr rates in Monmouth County from 6pm-1am. I went from 6" on the ground near dinner time and by the time I went to bed around 1am, we had 19-20". Several more inches accumulated overnight into the morning with moderate snows.Made it the second consecutive December with a 20"+, HECS in my area. Crazy stuff. And that radar is true wx porn; awesome frontogenetic forcing and long duration deform banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 It was better than PD II and JAN 1996 for snow rates and wind. But, JAN 1996 is still the boss due to duration factor and most widespread 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The cleanup for this storm took days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 4, 2011 Author Share Posted November 4, 2011 2-3"/hr rates in Monmouth County from 6pm-1am. I went from 6" on the ground near dinner time and by the time I went to bed around 1am, we had 19-20". Several more inches accumulated overnight into the morning with moderate snows.Made it the second consecutive December with a 20"+, HECS in my area. Crazy stuff. And that radar is true wx porn; awesome frontogenetic forcing and long duration deform banding. Yeah, I recall seeing only 5-7" of snow around 7 PM, then by 12:30 AM, I think I had 18 inches of snow on the ground. Some of those bands were absolutely absurd. Lyndhurst New Jersey had around 10" of snow at 7 PM, then they had 28" of snow by 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 another true HECS, a 962mb bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. LOL that was hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 LOL that was hilarious! The worst was how the entire thing spiraled out of control too that everbody began trying to justify all the other models that came in that morning saying they were based off GFS gridding, in some cases the claims were totaly true but in others were not. Even when the 18Z NAM jumped on board people said it was possible the fact it was using some of the bad 12Z data was an issue, it wasn't til the 00Z NAM came in the evening of the 24th that everyone finally began to believe it was for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. Other than a brief mention on Pg 51 stating wind data with small BG should not have been omitted from the GFS, I find it disturbing that this report fails to mention the error of NECP throwing out these runs of not only GFS but also the NAM once it came around to the GFS. I remember on Xmas day NBC JH was calling for flurries and made a generic reference to the models being thrown out. At that same time Upton and Mt holly were calling for WSW and blizzard warnings while she was calling for flurries. FacePalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 This storm really showed us that technology still had a long way to go to more accurate forecasting. I mean we all thought the storm wasn't going to phase and go up the coast literally 48 hours or less before the heavy stuff hit. It was crazy how one model run was the start of it all. I remember people saying how the model run showed the storm a lot further north and giving us some snow and then the next run it was even better and it kept getting better, and then the other models were jumping on board. The storm really was an amazing thread the needle event as well because if things were just a little bit off in timing and placement, then we wouldn't have even gotten a flurry. It was all or nothing with this event and we got our christmas miracle. I definitely thought it would be an OTS event because the low the models showed was all the way down in eastern Florida panhandle and it's tough to get a low to amplify and go up the coast from such a starting point, usually its the mid gulf to Georgia (classic Miller A style), then Carolinas and up the coast or from the gulf to Tennessee (secondary off Carolinas, Miller B style and up the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I will remember that storm as having essentially been a let down and rip off. Granted, I should probably never complain about 10 inches... but seeing as totals of 25" were only 20-30 miles away... and the models showed that it would be extremely close... it felt like a big rip off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I will remember that storm as having essentially been a let down and rip off. Granted, I should probably never complain about 10 inches... but seeing as totals of 25" were only 20-30 miles away... and the models showed that it would be extremely close... it felt like a big rip off. Here ya there. Many of us were 'ripped off' on that one! That radar image kills me, the deform band was sick and so close. But still a great winter and complaining just because I can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 That storm is number 1 in my book with PDII and Jan 96 right behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 They neglect to mention the whole NCEP "ignore the GFS due to initialization problems" which occurred on I think the 24th. What did that ever turn out to be ? Was it based on any facts that held weight? Or was it more of a "wow this can't be real" type of thing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 The snow aspect was definitely awesome in Nassau County, as we had at least a foot and a half. The wind though really took the cake-we must have had some 50-55 mph gusts if not higher with the snow. It was a true whiteout at times, making it impossible to see maybe 4 houses down from me. It was a little disappointing to see the megabanding set up just west of us, which robbed us of some of the heaviest snow at times, but who can really complain about 18-20" of snow and a wind whipped, all-out blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Beautiful banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Beautiful banding That radar shows Queens and Brooklyn being robbed by the deform snows to our west. Here is a truly fantastic radar shot for NYC, especially for Queens and Brooklyn. January 27, 2011: photo.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 That radar shows Queens and Brooklyn being robbed by the deform snows to our west. Here is a truly fantastic radar shot for NYC, especially for Queens and Brooklyn. January 27, 2011: Even though Brooklyn got robbed by that deform, we still ended up getting over 20 inches. I received 18 inches from the Jan 27 storm. I had 4 inches in the morning and then 14 inches at night with incredible rates. Hopefully we see that again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 That radar shows Queens and Brooklyn being robbed by the deform snows to our west. Here is a truly fantastic radar shot for NYC, especially for Queens and Brooklyn. January 27, 2011: I literally was in awe at how hard the snow came down in that band, for hours. We had another foot of snow on top of 3-4" from earlier within 4 hours. That was after thunder sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 I literally was in awe at how hard the snow came down in that band, for hours. We had another foot of snow on top of 3-4" from earlier within 4 hours. That was after thunder sleet. Yeah. For Queens and Western Nassau, Jan. 27, was an insane snowstorm. That band I posted was the hardest snow, I've ever seen. 3" to as much as 5" an hour reported from LGA to ISP! Sick...Was also very windy and LGA had blizzard conditions for 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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