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December 16/17 threat


stormtracker

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It's going to be cold when it snows, forecast soundings show we get into the dendric snow growth layer, and potent area of omegas to our SW.

This is an overperformer coming in.

Probably the main event of the week :(

Yeah, NAM is taking it away from DC again. 16/17 fail. 21/22 fail. Winter cancel.

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It's going to be cold when it snows, forecast soundings show we get into the dendric snow growth layer, and potent area of omegas to our SW.

This is an overperformer coming in.

Probably the main event of the week :(

If you think it's going to be an overperformer then why so sad?

I'm excited. I'm starting to think there may be little to no mixing if the forecasted high keeps going lower and lower like it is.

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In all seriousness - model watching from run to run is a recipe for both frustration and repeated "prediction fail" until ~3 days out for big events, ~1 day out for clippers. I think the broader seasonal predictions will prove generally correct, despite the blocking - maybe an extra couple of weeks of cold, but then a warmer Jan/Feb. DC snowfall is always a crapshoot, and it is the broader context (Pacific temps, NAO, etc) that sets the general odds; so if the odds of a storm that hits DC in December are better for it to be frz than they will be in Jan and Feb, but the pcp keeps skipping DC, that doesn't bode well for the season.

But no, it's not winter cancel just yet...!

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Guest someguy

12:51 Your call for the Hampton Roads last night was 1-3 inches.

that was 36 hrs ago..!!

.. and I was the ONLY one calling for snow in se virgina and you gave me a ton of crap

and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said

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that was 36 hrs ago..!!

.. and I was the ONLY one calling for snow in se virgina and you gave me a ton of crap

and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said

looks like we're going down a familiar road...

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