RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think this is one of the first times that the entire state of Virginia out to the coastal plain could be in on accumulating snowfall. January 30-31, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 old eta loves dc and this is just a 3 hour map lol Leesburg just fell out of his chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Leesburg just fell out of his chair You sir are correct, this shows the trend haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Leesburg just fell out of his chair So did I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Good. I'd take the likelihood of small snow tomorrow over the possibility of big snow 5 days away. Bird in the hand and all that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's going to be cold when it snows, forecast soundings show we get into the dendric snow growth layer, and potent area of omegas to our SW. This is an overperformer coming in. Probably the main event of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 No idea on ratios... but that looks like a solid 2" just south of DC.... 3-4 once you get toward EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's going to be cold when it snows, forecast soundings show we get into the dendric snow growth layer, and potent area of omegas to our SW. This is an overperformer coming in. Probably the main event of the week Yeah, NAM is taking it away from DC again. 16/17 fail. 21/22 fail. Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherFrost Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's going to be cold when it snows, forecast soundings show we get into the dendric snow growth layer, and potent area of omegas to our SW. This is an overperformer coming in. Probably the main event of the week If you think it's going to be an overperformer then why so sad? I'm excited. I'm starting to think there may be little to no mixing if the forecasted high keeps going lower and lower like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, NAM is taking it away from DC again. 16/17 fail. 21/22 fail. Winter cancel. Is this for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is this for real? He is in weenie training Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Was it Dave or another met that said being on the northern edge can sometimes overperform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 He is in weenie training Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 In all seriousness - model watching from run to run is a recipe for both frustration and repeated "prediction fail" until ~3 days out for big events, ~1 day out for clippers. I think the broader seasonal predictions will prove generally correct, despite the blocking - maybe an extra couple of weeks of cold, but then a warmer Jan/Feb. DC snowfall is always a crapshoot, and it is the broader context (Pacific temps, NAO, etc) that sets the general odds; so if the odds of a storm that hits DC in December are better for it to be frz than they will be in Jan and Feb, but the pcp keeps skipping DC, that doesn't bode well for the season. But no, it's not winter cancel just yet...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Borrowed from Midlo in the Richmond thread nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW... this is what the 06z NAM was printing out. Solid 2-3 from DC to EZF http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW... this is what the 06z NAM was printing out. Solid 2-3 from DC to EZF http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=LWX 12z should improve that especially to the S as it looks colder now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z should improve that especially to the S as it looks colder now Somewhat. I think its based off 10-1 SR's though... so it may increase it a tad if we use 12:1 SR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Somewhat. I think its based off 10-1 SR's though... so it may increase it a tad if we use 12:1 SR's. I guess I was refering to S of LYH on that map. Less mixing per 12z if I read it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I guess I was refering to S of LYH on that map. Less mixing per 12z if I read it right? Oh. I thought you meant for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 January 30-31, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12:51 Your call for the Hampton Roads last night was 1-3 inches. that was 36 hrs ago..!! .. and I was the ONLY one calling for snow in se virgina and you gave me a ton of crap and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that was 36 hrs ago..!! .. and I was the ONLY one calling for snow in se virgina and you gave me a ton of crap and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said looks like we're going down a familiar road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So did I. You and I are still in an iffy situation. Especially if we go with the 12z NAM and the 9z SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 link TO that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said Whether the other person is a weenie, a jackass, or a normal, nice, polite human being, you really expect an apology on an internet message board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that was 36 hrs ago..!! .. and I was the ONLY one calling for snow in se virgina and you gave me a ton of crap and you of course as weenie have not apologized or recanted anything you said just let it go not worth it, same for john it's going to snow be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dave -- http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dave -- http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php Yup, CIPS analog site. Extremely useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yup, CIPS analog site. Extremely useful. It is. I would take that storm map you posted in a heatbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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