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December 16/17 threat


stormtracker

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Guest someguy

I wonder if we RIC will be under warnings in the am with this 0z run

NOOOOO

they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay

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NOOOOO

they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay

I expect winter weather advisories in the afternoon package tomorrow, and I wouldn't be shocked to see winter storm warnings for someone in the Thursday morning package. Hopefully me if the northern trend continues. I'm off to a slow start against the snow capital of virginia, RIC.

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NOOOOO

they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay

Why would they anyway. The low's weak, the upper support is really weak. The only thing it has going for it is warm advection with no real gulf moisture tap because of the lack of amplitude. How much precip does the euro have? is it as heavy, if not, I'd lean towards its amounts.

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Why would they anyway. The low's weak, the upper support is really weak. The only thing it has going for it is warm advection with no real gulf moisture tap because of the lack of amplitude. How much precip does the euro have? is it as heavy, if not, I'd lean towards its amounts.

the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time.

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I agree and the gfs is no jewel when it comes to light precip amounts either.

but eyeballing, we have the gfs/nam/sref in the .05-1" camp now dc area south.. usually by this range that's agreement we can believe in. i guess we're still close enough to the edge that a nudge back south kills us. i'd currently think maybe best case 2-4" in the max stripe, which means maybe a 5" measurement from people who post here. 1-3" might be a safer bet for now though.

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Guest someguy

the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time.

missing the key poiunt here Ian

the0z nam was wetter thans the 18z nam

the 18z was wetter and colder than the 12z nam

the 12z nam was weter and colder than the 6z

and NOW the 0z GFS is MUCH wetter

keep in Mind the 0z and 6z MONDAY GFS had no SNOW not a flake in RIC for thursday

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Guest someguy

Yep.

its scary

every time in the last week you have said NO ... over done... Not happening within minutes new data comes out and knocks you on your fanny

Its like you are the george Constanza of weather

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Guest someguy

TV 6 in Richmond is going 4" rich 4-6" west of RIC

at 9am this morning they hasd light snow changing to sleet then plain rain No accumulations while DT has 2-4" 5" west and south of RIC

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TV 6 in Richmond is going 4" rich 4-6" west of RIC

at 9am this morning they hasd light snow changing to sleet then plain rain No accumulations while DT has 2-4" 5" west and south of RIC

What are we looking at for ratios? It will be very cold, but the changeover line will be close.

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