Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if we RIC will be under warnings in the am with this 0z run NOOOOO they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NOOOOO they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay just enough time to screw the schools....thats gonna be a nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NOOOOO they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay I expect winter weather advisories in the afternoon package tomorrow, and I wouldn't be shocked to see winter storm warnings for someone in the Thursday morning package. Hopefully me if the northern trend continues. I'm off to a slow start against the snow capital of virginia, RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NOOOOO they arent going to go from 50% chance of snow maybe 1" to WSW warnings overnight... the snow doesnt begin until 7-10am thursay Why would they anyway. The low's weak, the upper support is really weak. The only thing it has going for it is warm advection with no real gulf moisture tap because of the lack of amplitude. How much precip does the euro have? is it as heavy, if not, I'd lean towards its amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Why would they anyway. The low's weak, the upper support is really weak. The only thing it has going for it is warm advection with no real gulf moisture tap because of the lack of amplitude. How much precip does the euro have? is it as heavy, if not, I'd lean towards its amounts. the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time. I agree and the gfs is no jewel when it comes to light precip amounts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I agree and the gfs is no jewel when it comes to light precip amounts either. but eyeballing, we have the gfs/nam/sref in the .05-1" camp now dc area south.. usually by this range that's agreement we can believe in. i guess we're still close enough to the edge that a nudge back south kills us. i'd currently think maybe best case 2-4" in the max stripe, which means maybe a 5" measurement from people who post here. 1-3" might be a safer bet for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 00z Gfs a hair south but more juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS increased qpf a bit..looks about the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 never punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS increased qpf a bit..looks about the same as 18z GFs Looks like it is a little wetter for us and it shows pretty strong warm advection which makes it look increasingly like we could squeeze out an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFs Looks like it is a little wetter for us and it shows pretty strong warm advection which makes it look increasingly like we could squeeze out an inch. It's cute how you make the s smaller in the GFs. It's kind of like dotting your I with a heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the nam is definitely overdoing the qpf imo.. it does this all the time. missing the key poiunt here Ian the0z nam was wetter thans the 18z nam the 18z was wetter and colder than the 12z nam the 12z nam was weter and colder than the 6z and NOW the 0z GFS is MUCH wetter keep in Mind the 0z and 6z MONDAY GFS had no SNOW not a flake in RIC for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yep. its scary every time in the last week you have said NO ... over done... Not happening within minutes new data comes out and knocks you on your fanny Its like you are the george Constanza of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z GFS now more like the 0Z euro can be believed.... has ric 0.50" and points to s and e of RIC up to 1.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 00z RGEM gives DCA about 3-4 mm... or 0.10-0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0z GFS now more like the 0Z euro can be believed.... has ric 0.50" and points to s and e of RIC up to 1.00" Is this all or mostly snow S and E of RIC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is this all or mostly snow S and E of RIC? YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Man...the mountains in WV will keep seeing upslope in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 TV 6 in Richmond is going 4" rich 4-6" west of RIC at 9am this morning they hasd light snow changing to sleet then plain rain No accumulations while DT has 2-4" 5" west and south of RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 TV 6 in Richmond is going 4" rich 4-6" west of RIC at 9am this morning they hasd light snow changing to sleet then plain rain No accumulations while DT has 2-4" 5" west and south of RIC What are we looking at for ratios? It will be very cold, but the changeover line will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WOW http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What are we looking at for ratios? It will be very cold, but the changeover line will be close. DONT agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 dt land going to get nailed Go chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dt do you see this moving more north tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DONT agree Well, it's not down in NC although surface temps will be way below freezing. I guess if you get snow, it'll be powdery considering the surface temps. 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Long Range GFS says WHAT WARM UP? Odd handling of the retrograding block though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im going to be super bummed if there is a warning snow to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im going to be super bummed if there is a warning snow to my south GFS snow clown maps seem to give us a broad 1-3 inches... around 1 inch N of DC.... 1-2 DC S to just N or EZF, and more as you go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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