yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 15z SREFs inch the 0.1 QPF line close to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We're running out of time... 36Hrs away as of tonight. Anyhoo, looks like the 18Z NAM will be a bit further north after seeing the early frames... appears a smidge north with the cyclops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We're running out of time... 36Hrs away as of tonight. Anyhoo, looks like the 18Z NAM will be a bit further north after seeing the early frames... appears a smidge north with the cyclops. More like 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 More like 48 NAM's climbing north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 More like 48 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 39 Anyway, we both miss out on this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 that LOW in the Midwest was not closed at 72 hrs on 12Z run fwliw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z NAM at 72 hrs 700mb RH looks interesting fwliw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z GFS is a general inch, maybe a little bit more as that is a pretty good RH slug moving over a pretty cold air mass. Maybe low 20's when the snow starts Thursday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If the GFS keeps trending north at this rate every update, this event is going to have a northern border around NYC.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_048.shtml Of course, it won't... But (speaking from DC area) it would be good to hit the pause button after one more 6 hour increment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z NAM WETTER 4 -6 " just as i thoight and said on WRVA this morning BEST SNOWS OVER RAO DAN LYH FVX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18Z GFS is a general inch, maybe a little bit more as that is a pretty good RH slug moving over a pretty cold air mass. Maybe low 20's when the snow starts Thursday AM? LOT more than an inch down here on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOT more than an inch down here on 18z GFS He meant up toward the DC area Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 18z NAM WETTER 4 -6 " just as i thoight and said on WRVA this morning BEST SNOWS OVER RAO DAN LYH FVX Someone show this map to Hampton Roads TV Mets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam looks good... we get this 500 low to relax slightly more and it's a nice little event, especially south.. ric ftw again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam looks good... we get this 500 low to relax slightly more and it's a nice little event, especially south.. ric ftw again? NAM is looking good so far...amplifying precip field over C VA this run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im starting to like the idea of some accum around here better... support is there -- sref has .1 knocking on my door. often these lows over the northeast etc are progged too strong in the distance. our upward potential maybe like 2"-3" or so in dc area but further south gets a nice little snow it seems. not sure i buy the increase in precip in the max area fully but we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im starting to like the idea of some accum around here better... support is there -- sref has .1 knocking on my door. often these lows over the northeast etc are progged too strong in the distance. our upward potential maybe like 2"-3" or so in dc area but further south gets a nice little snow it seems. not sure i buy the increase in precip in the max area fully but we'll see how it plays out. Agree. I called for an inch in DC earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if we RIC will be under warnings in the am with this 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I wonder if we RIC will be under warnings in the am with this 0z run Doubt it. AKQ will probably wait until at least the afternoon updates. I believe Anthony said in another thread that 4" is the warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 so what times for ric look to be when most of the precip falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im starting to like the idea of some accum around here better... support is there -- sref has .1 knocking on my door. often these lows over the northeast etc are progged too strong in the distance. our upward potential maybe like 2"-3" or so in dc area but further south gets a nice little snow it seems. not sure i buy the increase in precip in the max area fully but we'll see how it plays out. The further north the better, obviously. Those in south-central va, are there temp issues starting to come into play? I hope not for those guys. I don't know if its possible, but I'd like to see all of Va get something good. Don't know about anybody else, but I want this event to work out. I'll worry about the weekend later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 wow this is 5-6" ovr ric area.... inch chesterfield county this is 4th run ina row NAM has increased it http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The further north the better, obviously. Those in south-central va, are there temp issues starting to come into play? I hope not for those guys. I don't know if its possible, but I'd like to see all of Va get something good. Don't know about anybody else, but I want this event to work out. I'll worry about the weekend later. the 0z TUES rusn shwoed mucy more warm air... now the zero 850 isotherm never makes it to richmond at all which again is colder by 3 or 4degres Cthan the 12z NAM which had RIC to +2c by 7pm Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Doubt it. AKQ will probably wait until at least the afternoon updates. I believe Anthony said in another thread that 4" is the warning criteria. once they have said 1-2" they never vary ... until after the 4th inch has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the 0z TUES rusn shwoed mucy more warm air... now the zero 850 isotherm never makes it to richmond at all which again is colder by 3 or 4degres Cthan the 12z NAM which had RIC to +2c by 7pm Thursday Good. And good luck to you guys down there. I'll be happy if the ground gets covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 wow this is 5-6" ovr ric area.... inch chesterfield county this is 4th run ina row NAM has increased it http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif ORF looks good for 2-4 inches. I would love it if RIC and ORF get hit good for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 so what times for ric look to be when most of the precip falls? late am. midday per nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Some of the SREF ind. members really took a nice jump to the north with this. Starting to get a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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