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December 16/17 threat


stormtracker

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well if you care to look the 0z euro was 200 miles EAST of that

thats quite a shift for 1 run

of course I am not sure how having 850 temps at 192 hrs over DC of -9c is warm and wet

but then I am not very good at this sort of thing ......

Dave, we first get a suppressed clipper that dives into freaking NC, then we get a cutter, and now we have another storm shunted south and beat up by the mega-block.

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dont agree

In the first frame DCA is perhaps right on the .1mm line.

In the second DC is just barely south of the 2.5mm line with the 5mm dark blue band starting around Aquia. So, let's call that 3mm for DC.

In the third frame the dark blue 5 - 7.5mm band represents a relatively tight gradient that might be as far north as Aquia (again). So, I'd say 4mm in that frame for a total of 7mm at DC.

Finally, in the last frame of this abysmal model, the 5 - 7.5mm band is extremely tightly warped around the green >7.5mm blob which is well to DC's east. In this image IAD would appear to be at the western edge of the 2.5 - 5mm band with DC in the eastern most edge of that. So...perhaps 4mm for DC in that frame for a total of 11mm. When I go through the same, painstakingly pointless, process to add up all the precip for RIC I arrive at around 18mm as Inudaw came up with. Oh, and should it matter, it looks like a good bit of that would have been rain.

I have to admit I only checked the two image links you posted (for 144hr and 156hr) when I arrived at 5mm for DC. I had no idea that the GGEM had publicly accessible images beyond 144hr, I was surprised by the 156hr and didn't even consider 168hr. They do a good job with 2wk - 3wk ensemble temperature forecasting, though.

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the 500 pattern looks similar to the one for the squelched clipper for now.. partly why im cautious about any weekend event as well

looking at the 700mb map, there's a direct flow from decent precip areas to our w/sw to us, which is different from the last event

otherwise I agree it is similar

whether the diff at this point makes a difference in the end result, I guess we'll have to cross our fingers

nam_700_084m.gif

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yeah it looks like there is more moisture available though the gfs has trended the wrong direction lately i think and moisture content is always hard to buy at this range. i think we may need the block to shift back further west to give is better odds which is kind of what's showing on the euro for the next weekend storms. either way i guess it's good to have two sort of legit interests in the mid range.

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18z GFS says NO to everything...the 1st threat...the 2nd threat..the 3rd threat.

No way the 00z euro has this storm tonight

Not sure I would be so fast on that... 18Z GFS has identified a low that wasn't there before - too far East to be of use for MA snows, but still a development in the right direction.

18Z GFS hr174: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_174.shtml

12Z GFS hr 180: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_180.shtml

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