December 16/17 threat

[CoastalWx]

The big problem is the upper level energy remains so far north initially that is just get sheared and squashed as it comes east. That seems to be the mo so far this winter, we either have systems squashed or they go to the lakes when the blocking shifts eastward like the Sunday storm. If the 500 in the north stays stronger and we get more precip, we probably have more warming at 850 and end up with the snow look becoming a freezing rain look for DC. That's the dilemma. Farther south closer to the moisture, the weak 500 would be best.

I noticed that, pretty large disconnect. It looked like the low was forming with very little help from H5. Just enough baroclinic processes I guess for it to form. The euro was a little further north and made better sense given where the forcing at H5 was...however it was warmer, as you alluded to.

[usedtobe]

I noticed that, pretty large disconnect. It looked like the low was forming with very little help from H5. Just enough baroclinic processes I guess for it to form. The euro was a little further north and made better sense given where the forcing at H5 was...however it was warmer, as you alluded to.

It's one of the problems this year and until the pacific improves, we may continue to have the problem even with the terrific looking negative AO that develops. The latter would make it easier to get clippers and maybe miller b threats but still won't give us a big one without help and changes in the Pacific.

[CoastalWx]

I also noticed the gfs is faster with the weak lead s/w across the TN valley that develops the low. The euro is stronger and slower with that energy, so timing differences exist.

[Riptide]

I also noticed the gfs is faster with the weak lead s/w across the TN valley that develops the low. The euro is stronger and slower with that energy, so timing differences exist.

Could this be a case of the Euro holding the energy in the SW?

[Ender]

The big problem is the upper level energy remains so far north initially that is just get sheared and squashed as it comes east. That seems to be the mo so far this winter, we either have systems squashed or they go to the lakes when the blocking shifts eastward like the Sunday storm. If the 500 in the north stays stronger and we get more precip, we probably have more warming at 850 and end up with the snow look becoming a freezing rain look for DC. That's the dilemma. Farther south closer to the moisture, the weak 500 would be best.

I posted something similar yesterday. From the 12Z EC loop I was looking at I'd made the wrong conclusion that maybe the southern stream was showing a little life. In fact, after looking at today's GFS, it looks more like there's a bit of a split in the northern stream flow near the CA/OR coast with shortwaves getting a bit torn apart as pieces head east in the dominant flow and other pieces head up into that convoluted mess in BC. I'll admit maybe I'm not doing too well at reading the 500mb flow, but that's how I see it. I also see pretty significant timing differences between today's 12Z GFS and yesterday's 12Z EC. Something like maybe 24hr - 36hr difference in the timing of the sw. The implications are huge as yesterday's 12Z EC would have implied quickly rising heights over the NE and some potential for an OV system as the more amplified alternative to the sheared apart light over running event that it was showing. I guess my worries are this looks like a fairly complicated, fast flow way to make it snow in DC that doesn't inspire confidence. At the same time, it's nice to see something heading our way from somewhere other than 50N/110W...

[Guest someguy]

DT is very Bullsih on this

posyted on it over at FB and at SV...

12z CMC very bullish for va nc md

1st the Low is further south b/c of the supressed pattern

its Mucvh colder than 0z run

.. 850 temps and 2m temps cold all level through entire event

QPF from Montreal wx center site shows 30mm total at ROA all snow / ice ....23mm at RIC ,., all snow and Ice 16 MM at DC

please use this site to this data

and use the PULL DOWN menus

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=T2m&hh=132&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=T2m&hh2=144&fixhh=1

[stormtracker]

12z Euro says no dice...keeps precip south from what I heard

[CarolineWx]

Yes what i am hearing EURO retrogrades storm in the northeast and that causes the Thursday storm to be suppressed and sheared out

[stormtracker]

12z GGEM is pretty decent, but its sort of on its own. GFS is close I guess

[stormtracker]

DT is very Bullsih on this

posyted on it over at FB and at SV...

12z CMC very bullish for va nc md

1st the Low is further south b/c of the supressed pattern

its Mucvh colder than 0z run

.. 850 temps and 2m temps cold all level through entire event

QPF from Montreal wx center site shows 30mm total at ROA all snow / ice ....23mm at RIC ,., all snow and Ice 16 MM at DC

please use this site to this data

and use the PULL DOWN menus

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=T2m&hh=132&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=T2m&hh2=144&fixhh=1

You sure that's 16mm for DC? That;s about .70 inches liquid

[winter_warlock]

12z GGEM is pretty decent, but its sort of on its own. GFS is close I guess

im sure the models wont look the same run to run for at least a few days,... id lean more toward euro a bit, IMO it seemed to handle the current storm a little better

[winter_warlock]

can't post those maps from accuwx pro jack

oh ok sry i didnt know

[Ender]

DT is very Bullsih on this

posyted on it over at FB and at SV...

Dave's an excellent meteorologist and a friend of mine. I appreciate that you took the time to make sure we were aware of his thoughts. Thanks.

[Amped]

I apologize for my trolling last night. I did not think thet the GFS could just altogether miss a shortwave and put flat height contours where a troff should be.

I forgot, It's the GFS.

[Guest someguy]

estimated adding up the QPF from 144 hr 1656 and 168

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

[Ender]

12z Euro says no dice...keeps precip south from what I heard

Indeed, we're going to have to hope that it's got the wrong idea. It looks good for the Mohawk valley, though. They could use a good year...

[Ender]

estimated adding up the QPF from 144 hr 1656 and 168

http://meteocentre.c...PN_144_0000.gif

http://meteocentre.c...PN_156_0000.gif

That looks like 10mm for RIC and maybe 5mm for DC. Not 23 and 16.

[Inudaw]

That looks like 10mm for RIC and maybe 5mm for DC. Not 23 and 16.

If you use the "Low end" it would be 7.5 mm in the first frame for RIC, and between 7.5 and 10 mm in the second frame.

Or 15 to 17.5 mm for Richmond. :X

[wxmeddler]

Either its above freezing somewhere through the column, and more QPF or we get less QPF and <0°C through the collumn.

WELCOME TO LA NINA!

[Guest someguy]

That looks like 10mm for RIC and maybe 5mm for DC. Not 23 and 16.

dont agree

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Dave's an excellent meteorologist and a friend of mine. I appreciate that you took the time to make sure we were aware of his thoughts. Thanks.

glad to see DT bullish

[Ender]

If you use the "Low end" it would be 7.5 mm in the first frame for RIC, and between 7.5 and 10 mm in the second frame.

Or 15 to 17.5 mm for Richmond. :X

Hm...I see RIC as well inside the dark blue 5mm - 7.5mm band on the 144hr frame, but the green 7.5mm stuff as maybe as far north as Petersburg. On the 156hr I saw RIC as, again, inside that very, very thin 5mm - 7.5mm band with the 7.5mm - 10mm band being just a few miles to their east, but I was probably short changing them on that. At any rate it's pretty much the worst model that anyone uses on a regular basis. It's one giant step above the NOGAPS (IMO of course).

[Inudaw]

Hm...I see RIC as well inside the dark blue 5mm - 7.5mm band on the 144hr frame, but the green 7.5mm stuff as maybe as far north as Petersburg. On the 156hr I saw RIC as, again, inside that very, very thin 5mm - 7.5mm band with the 7.5mm - 10mm band being just a few miles to their east, but I was probably short changing them on that. At any rate it's pretty much the worst model that anyone uses on a regular basis. It's one giant step above the NOGAPS (IMO of course).

I based my observation on the Official Richmond airport location.. Which is south east of the City of Richmond. ^ ^;

[Guest someguy]

ENDER I am mongering ...

stop trying to bring reality into this

[Guest someguy]

12z euro more BULLISH on insentropic lift overrunnign event

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif

[Guest someguy]

HOLY CRAP

[Dr No]

To put some weenie logic into this, that's right where we want to see the models for a day 5-6 event. Keep it south until Tuesday. It seems like this upcoming week has more potential in it than the last couple.

The 12/11/2010 12Z Euro has a strong low level jet, so just north of where the 850 line is should do very well.

[PhineasC]

Sweet, the pattern of cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/dry continues.

[Guest someguy]

god almighty I LOVE it when the fooking -AO TANKS and the -NAO classic west based mid atlantic favorite spot

[Guest someguy]

Sweet, the pattern of cold/dry, warm/wet, and cold/dry continues.

well if you care to look the 0z euro was 200 miles EAST of that

thats quite a shift for 1 run

of course I am not sure how having 850 temps at 192 hrs over DC of -9c is warm and wet

but then I am not very good at this sort of thing ......