December 16/17 threat

[Ian]

first cwg snowmap:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/pm_update_still_cold_waiting_o.html

[PhineasC]

first cwg snowmap:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/pm_update_still_cold_waiting_o.html

[WinterWxLuvr]

first cwg snowmap:

http://voices.washin..._waiting_o.html

Bust.

[Ian]

Bust.

i wouldnt be surprised if it came north based on 'trends' but we're running out of time i guess.. and i like to hug the wettest/coldest model myself sometimes

[Guest someguy]

first cwg snowmap:

http://voices.washin..._waiting_o.html

so you are goong for LESS snow than the GFS in RIC.....?

sure... and MIX?

not good

[TUweathermanDD]

so you are goong for LESS snow than the GFS in RIC.....?

sure... and MIX?

not good

Agreed, and I know you aren't just saying this because you live in the snow hole, I believe this will occur:

Baltimore: 1.6''

Around DC: 2.3''

CHO: 3.4''

RIC: 5.1''

That's preliminary...and also I doubt much mixing for RIC

[yoda]

18z RGEM

[MN Transplant]

Pretty consistent on the NAM for tomorrow

DCA

06z: 0.17"

12z: 0.13"

18z: 0.15"

[TUweathermanDD]

Pretty consistent on the NAM for tomorrow

DCA

06z: 0.17"

12z: 0.13"

18z: 0.15"

Can you throw BWI's my way? I'd appreciate it.

[yoda]

Pretty consistent on the NAM for tomorrow

DCA

06z: 0.17"

12z: 0.13"

18z: 0.15"

Would 12:1 SR's make sense?

[Ian]

Would 12:1 SR's make sense?

I would think higher.. Except maybe DCA. 15:1?

[MN Transplant]

Can you throw BWI's my way? I'd appreciate it.

Here's the link

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

[yoda]

I would think higher.. Except maybe DCA. 15:1?

15:1 SR's with 0.15 would give 0.225 of QPF. Which would give DCA just over 2 inches

[yoda]

Color map of RGEM at 24: http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_024.jpg

36: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg

[TUweathermanDD]

Here's the link

http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec

Thanks, been a while since I used them, but heck BWI at 0.074 with 15:1 still is about 1.10 (1.11 I believe)

However, I think we should get at least .1 here in SE Baltimore, so 1'' is a pretty good bet for the area, any more liquid or any more trends and good things could happen.

[PhineasC]

Thanks, been a while since I used them, but heck BWI at 0.074 with 15:1 still is about 1.10 (1.11 I believe)

However, I think we should get at least .1 here in SE Baltimore, so 1'' is a pretty good bet for the area, any more liquid or any more trends and good things could happen.

Yeah, you could get 1.2 inches.

[yoda]

I would surmise that the 18z RGEM shows 4-6mm of precip for DCA area... on average I would say 0.2.

[Ian]

i think .2 is about where we'll settle

[TUweathermanDD]

Yeah, you could get 1.2 inches.

You're right! Thanks for noticing Phin.

But you and I both know it could give us a little surprise, and that Ian should change his CWG map

[Ian]

.33 got DCA 6.4 last yr on jan 30 -- this will probably have a bit lower ratios but should be the type of snow that accums at DCA about as well as elsewhere

[ravensrule]

Yeah, you could get 1.2 inches.

That is double what you have .

[BTRWx]

The 0c line trend looks too close for comfort for D.C. on the 18Z GFS. Qpf looks good though imo.

[Kmlwx]

The 0c line trend looks too close for comfort for D.C. on the 18Z GFS. Qpf looks good though imo.

I really don't think that's going to be a concern up this way.

[PhineasC]

That is double what you have .

Actually, I will see plenty of snow this weekend. Sorry.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Actually, I will see plenty of snow this weekend. Sorry.

Don't think that's what he meant.

[PhineasC]

Don't think that's what he meant.

I know what he meant but I generally don't exchange penis jokes with handicapped teenagers on weather boards.

Do you think this is the SNE forum or something?

[mitchnick]

I think all we can hope for is that punch of PAC moisture boosts us up to around .2", which, if it happened, would give us close to 3" with expected ratios

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[WinterWxLuvr]

I know what he meant but I generally don't exchange penis jokes with handicapped teenagers on weather boards.

Do you think this is the SNE forum or something?

You've been on your A-game the past day or two.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I'm very happy we have this event to mitigate the pain of our bigger threat looking more OTSish.

From a quick look latest GFS/NAM/SREF all have 0.25 comin close to DC.

Can we break 2 inches?

It would be nice if we could!

[BTRWx]

I really don't think that's going to be a concern up this way.

yea, the placement of the big 0c symbol affected my perception a bit. I'm learning piece by piece.