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December 16/17 threat


stormtracker

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Agree. The one tomorrow is a gift in my eyes and I'm more excited about it than the weekend one.

It's always nice to get one to trend well into game time as this seems to be doing. Some payback for the crappy cold!

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It's always nice to get one to trend well into game time as this seems to be doing. Some payback for the crappy cold!

These overrunning events are always fun. I was afraid of getting fringed earlier but it looks like a solid snowfall for locations south of the Mason-Dixon line.

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it's a big difference with the vort strength.. not sure what it means but it may at least prolong the event..

NAM looks like it is giving this thing a thin chance of lasting out past midnight Thurs for the DC environs... Do you put any credit in that, or will it be caught by the Blue Ridge?

nam_slp_036s.gif

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I'd say that although the 18z NAM gives DC a bit less, the h5 pattern is supportive of a bit more than what is reflected at the surface. As Ian said earlier, and looking at the 15z SREF's, it is evident that this thing is still improving albeit slightly, and as I said before could be a mini version of January 30th. (Which others are beginning to say as well.) 00z will be nice to get a good read on things and see if the NAM keeps going north and can work that favorable h5 positioning and energy out for south of the M/D line.

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That's an important key to this weekend. Need that to be as strong as possible out there.

Agreed Dr.No, the strength of that NE wave serving as the 50/50 block is key. I think on this run because the low and h5 is a bit slower and holds things up a bit, won't get a full beat on the weekend storm, but still we will get a pretty firm idea of whether or not the nam will keep it up from 06z and 12z.

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This water vapor loop shows how the PV is trying to keep the system south. Check out on the last couple of frames how the orientation of the PV is changing. The western side is trying to move further west and eastern side is trying to move to the north.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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