Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this region is good at looking past an event to one that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this region is good at looking past an event to one that's not going to happen. Agree. The one tomorrow is a gift in my eyes and I'm more excited about it than the weekend one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this region is good at looking past an event to one that's not going to happen. Quantity over quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Agree. The one tomorrow is a gift in my eyes and I'm more excited about it than the weekend one. It's always nice to get one to trend well into game time as this seems to be doing. Some payback for the crappy cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this region is good at looking past an event to one that's not going to happen. Agreed. But this weekend event has been so vexing. If only all the models would just go OTS. We wouldn't have to put up with one or two somewhat crazy solutions that keep luring us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's always nice to get one to trend well into game time as this seems to be doing. Some payback for the crappy cold! These overrunning events are always fun. I was afraid of getting fringed earlier but it looks like a solid snowfall for locations south of the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WWA out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WWA out. Charles, St Mary's, Stafford, and to the south and west for everyone. Smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 sref is rollin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 sref is rollin' So is the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 15z SREFs continue to march slightly northward... 0.25 line is somewhere between DCA and EZF. the 0.1 line is up to the Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 sref more wetter -- .25 nudging north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 sref more wetter -- .25 nudging north Yoda is way ahead of you, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yoda is way ahead of you, bro. im trying to write a forecast at the same time, sorry.i shouldnt have alerted him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this is one of those ideal overperforming situations perhaps. clouds far enough back that temps will tank after dark then we cloud over by sunrise etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im trying to write a forecast at the same time, sorry.i shouldnt have alerted him. Go ahead and do the forecast. I have the 18z RGEM and 18z NAM window's open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thats a pretty sharp cutoff at 24 hrs by BWI on the 18z NAM sim radar -- 850s are -7 EZF and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam's interesting at 30 has more backside energy which almost looks to keep the snow going longer this run though it may die over the mtns yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like 18z NAM holds... perhaps a hundreth or two less this go around for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam's interesting at 30 has more backside energy which almost looks to keep the snow going longer this run though it may die over the mtns yet Yeah. I was a bit surprised by the h5 energy at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah. I was a bit surprised by the h5 energy at 30 it's a big difference with the vort strength.. not sure what it means but it may at least prolong the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 it's a big difference with the vort strength.. not sure what it means but it may at least prolong the event.. 36 h7 and h5.. intriguing http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_036l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 it's a big difference with the vort strength.. not sure what it means but it may at least prolong the event.. NAM looks like it is giving this thing a thin chance of lasting out past midnight Thurs for the DC environs... Do you put any credit in that, or will it be caught by the Blue Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is interesting seeing how the low amplifies as it leaves the coast on the 18z NAM. This system becomes a powerful coastal low on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'd say that although the 18z NAM gives DC a bit less, the h5 pattern is supportive of a bit more than what is reflected at the surface. As Ian said earlier, and looking at the 15z SREF's, it is evident that this thing is still improving albeit slightly, and as I said before could be a mini version of January 30th. (Which others are beginning to say as well.) 00z will be nice to get a good read on things and see if the NAM keeps going north and can work that favorable h5 positioning and energy out for south of the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is interesting seeing how the low amplifies as it leaves the coast on the 18z NAM. This system becomes a powerful coastal low on the GFS. That's an important key to this weekend. Need that to be as strong as possible out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DCA is probably around 0.15 QPF on the 18z NAM. The 0.25 line is down by EZF again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That's an important key to this weekend. Need that to be as strong as possible out there. Agreed Dr.No, the strength of that NE wave serving as the 50/50 block is key. I think on this run because the low and h5 is a bit slower and holds things up a bit, won't get a full beat on the weekend storm, but still we will get a pretty firm idea of whether or not the nam will keep it up from 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DCA is probably around 0.15 QPF on the 18z NAM. The 0.25 line is down by EZF again Yoda, what do you think of the h5 images? Certainly looks we could do better than what the surface reflections are showing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This water vapor loop shows how the PV is trying to keep the system south. Check out on the last couple of frames how the orientation of the PV is changing. The western side is trying to move further west and eastern side is trying to move to the north. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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