ravensrule Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is. I would take that storm map you posted in a heatbeat The chances of that snow map verifying is slimmer than is what's between mine and your legs combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The chances of that snow map verifying is slimmer than is what's between mine and your legs combined. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Dave -- http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php that is NOT what I aksed for I am familar with the CIPS site its is incomprehensible to me and poorly run I am asking for THAT map LINK I have looked at over 104 maps in the last 30 minutes and I cant find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The chances of that snow map verifying is slimmer than is what's between mine and your legs combined. I know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that is NOT what I aksed for I am familar with the CIPS site its is incomprehensible to me and poorly run I am asking for THAT map LINK I have looked at over 104 maps in the last 30 minutes and I cant find it Do you mean how you get there? Or this below? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/EVENT/2010/20100201_120_total.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 right click is ur friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z RGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ^^ sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ^^ sweet You can double check.. but I believe thats around 5mm for us in DC. This translates into around 0.2 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 500h map is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 RICHMOND NOW UNDER WINTER STORM WATCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Seems as if all the model maps for tomorrow have a very consistent look. I guess that's to be expected at this time frame. I am very close to the northern limit, so still hoping for a little overperformance. Should be nice and cold here, so maybe that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 gfs a little more qpf in the dc area... think 1-2" is a safe bet, hoping for a little more bumpage to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Think this could be a January 30th event for DC/BAL. The northern edge always overperforms. It is playing history, and the 12z is a small detraction of the trends. 00z will show a last minute trend I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 RICHMOND NOW UNDER WINTER STORM WATCH The WSW is for 2-5"... but I know you know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 gfs a little more qpf in the dc area... think 1-2" is a safe bet, hoping for a little more bumpage to that Bumpage haha, yeah I agree Ian with ratios and the trends you are safe for that, plus what I said about the northern fringe which a met pointed out. The cold air will certainly play to our advantage. It does seem the slightest bit lighter as well. If we can get even close to the ETA, or at least continue the 6z trends back up at 18z and 00z, then there could be some surprises for DC + CMD. What we do know is that DT will get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/610_100.gif 12z GGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 with regard to saturday night sunday s and e of RIC folks need to recall DEC 25 2004 SNOWSTORM for se VA 6-8" fell in willamsburg 12"+ in PHF and ORF and suffolk... that might be what we see dec 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 with regard to saturday night sunday s and e of RIC folks need to recall DEC 25 2004 SNOWSTORM for se VA 6-8" fell in willamsburg 12"+ in PHF and ORF and suffolk... that might be what we see dec 19 Although it was Dec. 26 one day after X-MAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --*AN UPDATE FOR TV METS B4 THE NOON NEWS. CURRENT THINKING FOR THE SNOW FOR THU IS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SRN TIER COUNTIES - GREENE TO PENDLETON AND S. UP TO 3" OF SNOW PSBL THERE. GOOD CHC WE`LL BE ISSUING AN ADVSRY THERE W/ THE AFTN PCKG. FURTHER N SNOW ACCUM THREAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY. IF AN ADVSRY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED IT WOULD PRBLY BE USING THE "1 INCH DURG COMMUTE" RULE THAT WAS INITIATED LAST YR. AS SN NOT XPCTD UNTIL NOON THU THAT WOULDN`T BE ISSUED B4 THE MID SHIFT TNGT...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THU MRNG SHIFT.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --*AN UPDATE FOR TV METS B4 THE NOON NEWS. CURRENT THINKING FOR THE SNOW FOR THU IS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SRN TIER COUNTIES - GREENE TO PENDLETON AND S. UP TO 3" OF SNOW PSBL THERE. GOOD CHC WE`LL BE ISSUING AN ADVSRY THERE W/ THE AFTN PCKG. FURTHER N SNOW ACCUM THREAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY. IF AN ADVSRY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED IT WOULD PRBLY BE USING THE "1 INCH DURG COMMUTE" RULE THAT WAS INITIATED LAST YR. AS SN NOT XPCTD UNTIL NOON THU THAT WOULDN`T BE ISSUED B4 THE MID SHIFT TNGT...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THU MRNG SHIFT.* Hmmm.. I sense chaos tomorrow. If the QPF is as advertized on the 12Z runs today, with temps in the low/mid 20s when the snow starts in the morning (after school decisions are made). Not going to be a pretty site on the roadways especially if an advisory isn't issued until AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 [top] 000 WWUS41 KAKQ 151551 WSWAKQ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1051 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. VAZ048-049-060>063-065>071-079>083-087>089-160130- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER- MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD- HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT- GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND... ASHLAND...SOUTH HILL...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND... LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD 1051 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 gfs a little more qpf in the dc area... think 1-2" is a safe bet, hoping for a little more bumpage to that wes agrees http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/snow_threat_up_1_or_2_inches_p.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS096.gif classic BIG snow track for eastern VA and Lower MD eastern shore v usually GFS ENSEMBLE trck is always east of the Opersational not so in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT, your current thoughts for SE BAL? I don't ask imby usuaLly, but wanted to check up on your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 .1 qpf from the first storm is up to baltimore on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DC -.14" RIC-.38 Norfolk -.48 BWI-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm going to concentrate on this and enjoy our 1, maybe 2 inch snowfall tomorrow. The weekend deal is annoying the hell out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm going to concentrate on this and enjoy our 1, maybe 2 inch snowfall tomorrow. The weekend deal is annoying the hell out of me And it will look nice and you will enjoy it damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm going to concentrate on this and enjoy our 1, maybe 2 inch snowfall tomorrow. The weekend deal is annoying the hell out of me I'll second this. Better to stick with the more certain events of tomorrow than to submit to this emotional up and down ride. Never punt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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