NESIS rating for 29 Oct storm?

[das]

Maybe a 2?

[tamarack]

My guess is that it doesn't make it - not enough big cities with 10"+, maybe just BDL and ORH. NESIS doesn't care whether or not the trees still have leaves, and that was a major factor in the impact.

Edit, 11/3: Saw BDL listed with 20.3" shortly after the above post. Nearby stations all seemed 10-12", but if the 20"+ stands, it might pull the storm to cat 1.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I've been wondering about this and was hoping someone would make a poll. I think it will be a category 1.

[Scotty Lightning]

Preliminary map is out.

[MJW155]

My guess is that it doesn't make it - not enough big cities with 10"+, maybe just BDL and ORH. NESIS doesn't care whether or not the trees still have leaves, and that was a major factor in the impact.

Edit, 11/3: Saw BDL listed with 20.3" shortly after the above post. Nearby stations all seemed 10-12", but if the 20"+ stands, it might pull the storm to cat 1.

What's the point of having a NESIS rating if you don't include storms like this?

95% of the population probably don't remember snowstorms other than Blizzard of '96, '78 or the March Superstorm.

But they'll remember this one.

[Fozz]

Preliminary map is out.

LOL I wish that was accurate. Baltimore did not see anything close to 4-10".

[PottercountyWXobserver]

LOL I wish that was accurate. Baltimore did not see anything close to 4-10".

Same here, we did not see 1-4" as depicted on this map. Nothing stuck on the ground, although if the ground was cold enough the QPF amount maybe would of warranted an 1" of snow.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Well I was right that it was a category 1, but that map is total BS. It has BWI and DCA in the 1-4" zone when they only had a trace, and Baltimore and all points north and west in the 4-10" zone when they had WAY less than that.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Utterly amazing. This beats the previous record for earliest KU storm by a whopping 43 days.

[LMolineuxLM1]

Preliminary map is out.

Oh how that map is so wrong, has Delco into the Zero inches range when even I got 1 inch here in SE Delco. They need to fix it.

[Coach McGuirk]

I wish they'd spend the time and make the maps a little more accurate and detailed.

[BeastFromTheEast]

I wish they'd spend the time and make the maps a little more accurate and detailed.

Its a Preliminary one, so.....

[Amped]

A little better

[das]

1320557968[/url]' post='1097936']

A little better

Yes, that is a little better. What is the source? It is missing some 10-11" and 12-15" spots in Maryland.

[das]

1320546712[/url]' post='1097709']

Utterly amazing. This beats the previous record for earliest KU storm by a whopping 43 days.

Agreed, that's the big story here. The griping in this thread about a prelim map made a week after an event is interesting, to say the least.

[WinterWxLuvr]

A little better

Not by much. It's way wrong for my area, and also, you can look at the Altoona to State College corridor to see more of a mistake.

[Mallow]

Not by much. It's way wrong for my area, and also, you can look at the Altoona to State College corridor to see more of a mistake.

Yup, we had 3-4 inches and we were about the lowest total in the area. That map would have you believe we only had 1-2 inches, so too low. The other map, though, shows us closer to 4-10 inches (though near the 4" side of things), which is too high.

[JBG]

Well I was right that it was a category 1, but that map is total BS. It has BWI and DCA in the 1-4" zone when they only had a trace, and Baltimore and all points north and west in the 4-10" zone when they had WAY less than that.

You measure snow by taking what accumulates and adding it to later storm accumulations even if intermediate rain or melting washes some of it out. One doesn't only measure snow blanket on the ground.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

You measure snow by taking what accumulates and adding it to later storm accumulations even if intermediate rain or melting washes some of it out. One doesn't only measure snow blanket on the ground.

But that's not what happened in my area (BWI). It was all rain, with just a few brief periods of sleet and snow flurries mixed in that never accumulated in the first place.

[Ian]

Agreed, that's the big story here. The griping in this thread about a prelim map made a week after an event is interesting, to say the least.

they're known for making inaccurate maps anyway

[ptb127]

Yes, that is a little better. What is the source? It is missing some 10-11" and 12-15" spots in Maryland.

I got 13.5" of snow in Hazleton, PA and there is no purple colors in PA at all.

[Sunny and Warm]

I got 13.5" of snow in Hazleton, PA and there is no purple colors in PA at all.

Not to mention the blue dot in SE PA is misplaced. It should be in SW Lehigh and adjacent Berks and upper Montco. This region reported several 12-16" amounts in the hills with the valleys getting 7-10"

[tamarack]

What's the point of having a NESIS rating if you don't include storms like this?

95% of the population probably don't remember snowstorms other than Blizzard of '96, '78 or the March Superstorm.

But they'll remember this one.

Pretty sure that NESIS is based on snowfall amount correlated with population. Thus interesting storm aspects like wind, cold, ice, tree damage, power outages, are not figured in. Trying to include some/most/all of those might make the system too cumbersome and time-consuming to be feasible, but that's merely a guess. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

[okie333]

Pretty sure that NESIS is based on snowfall amount correlated with population. Thus interesting storm aspects like wind, cold, ice, tree damage, power outages, are not figured in. Trying to include some/most/all of those might make the system too cumbersome and time-consuming to be feasible, but that's merely a guess. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Not to mention the fact that this, an OCTOBER storm, is the only pre-December storm on the NESIS.

[das]

Pretty sure that NESIS is based on snowfall amount correlated with population. Thus interesting storm aspects like wind, cold, ice, tree damage, power outages, are not figured in. Trying to include some/most/all of those might make the system too cumbersome and time-consuming to be feasible, but that's merely a guess. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

The ranking scale is calculated from an algorithm of snowfall amount, total snowfall area, affected population and means of population in the 13-state northeast area and 10" snowfall area. Here is the paper by Squires & Lawrimore from NCDC:

Squires-Lawrimore.pdf

[Thunder Road]

Assessing damage would be incalculably difficult unless NESIS perhaps used total damage dollars as a factor as well. Theoretically more branches down = more power out = more dollars spent than a similar storm in December, which would help give this storm a bump. But then of course there's the inflation problem...

[Juliancolton]

No scale is going to be able to combine all aspects of meteorology and all aspects of social, infrastructural, and economic impacts. NESIS works, IMO, if you're a weather researcher looking into snowfall climatology.

[ice1972]

But a damaging ice storm in December doing about the same amount of tree damage and causing similar power outages and infrastructure damage would get a highe NESIS no?

This October snowstorm has easily had the biggest social impact on us and a lot of folks.....I think it needs a higher rating

[ORH_wxman]

But a damaging ice storm in December doing about the same amount of tree damage and causing similar power outages and infrastructure damage would get a highe NESIS no?

This October snowstorm has easily had the biggest social impact on us and a lot of folks.....I think it needs a higher rating

But that is not what the NESIS scale measures exactly. It measures total snow over population. That is like saying Katrina should have been upgraded to a cat 5 at landfall because of the social impact it caused in New Orleans.

[ice1972]

But that is not what the NESIS scale measures exactly. It measures total snow over population. That is like saying Katrina should have been upgraded to a cat 5 at landfall because of the social impact it caused in New Orleans.

Understood but what would you say about the first part of my reply.......what NESIS would an ice storm get that does that same amount of damage across the same swath as this past storm? If NESIS does not measure social impact then my hypothetical storm should get the same number......and my guess is that it wouldn't is all I was saying....