RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Hi folks, below is a link to my 2011-12 winter forecast. Sorry it was delayed a couple days later than normal this year. Click the slideshow link to see the reasoning. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/winter-2011-12-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Hi folks, below is a link to my 2011-12 winter forecast. Sorry it was delayed a couple days later than normal this year. Click the slideshow link to see the reasoning. http://www.examiner....011-12-forecast Thanks for the forecast and I hope it verifies. Last year, there was a lot of buzz about solar contribution to the winter. Any thoughts on this? Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Thanks for the forecast and I hope it verifies. Last year, there was a lot of buzz about solar contribution to the winter. Any thoughts on this? Regards I have read on the solar link to seasonal forecasting, and I think it is naive to not think there is one. I however have not done enough research to include it in my seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great forecast, I really liked the PDO and AMO disco's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracetoyou Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great job Allen! Very well explained & looks like a great forecast. You do great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great job as usual, Allan. That was a good read. Like many others, I hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 hope you're right Allen I see the Indian Ocean has been warming of late and now appears to have above normal temps throughout I recall some discussion fall last year that the warmer than normal Indian Ocean pointed toward a colder than normal winter, or colder than some werethinking, and it turned out cold in the east any thoughts on the warmer than normal Indian Ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Hi folks, below is a link to my 2011-12 winter forecast. Sorry it was delayed a couple days later than normal this year. Click the slideshow link to see the reasoning. http://www.examiner....011-12-forecast nice read Alan...Good luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Excellent forecast... matches my thoughts fairly well Could you post your analog years for us? Since you came up with the same pattern as me I'd like to compare my years to what you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Excellent forecast... matches my thoughts fairly well Could you post your analog years for us? Since you came up with the same pattern as me I'd like to compare my years to what you have. Sure. Obviously I took bits and pieces of the following years but didnt rely solely on them. 2010-11 ( Although this was a strong La Nina, the Atlantic had similarities, also the expectation for similar strong blocking, -PDO) 1955-56 (Same as with 2010-11, draw back again is that this Nina should be weaker than 55-56) 1970-71 (Main drawback was -AMO) 1950-51 (Could be decent match, but I expect more blocking overall) 1961-62 I looked at others but alot of pattern ideas came from the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Sure. Obviously I took bits and pieces of the following years but didnt rely solely on them. 2010-11 ( Although this was a strong La Nina, the Atlantic had similarities, also the expectation for similar strong blocking, -PDO) 1955-56 (Same as with 2010-11, draw back again is that this Nina should be weaker than 55-56) 1970-71 (Main drawback was -AMO) 1950-51 (Could be decent match, but I expect more blocking overall) 1961-62 I looked at others but alot of pattern ideas came from the above. Good deal. 1961-62 actually flew under my radar since it didn't technically qualify as a Nina, but I do see how it would work. Agree with 2010-11 and 1970-71, and while the other two were considered I ended tossing them because of the strength of the Nina during the summer months (I like looking at seasonal trends in addition to the overall value to match up ENSO analogs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great Job and presentation Allan! Btw, I recall the winter of 1978-79 being a solid -PDO/-NAO winter. How does it stack up this year? I'm thinking enso was neutral. I don't know how the AMO was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great job Allan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Good deal. 1961-62 actually flew under my radar since it didn't technically qualify as a Nina, but I do see how it would work. Agree with 2010-11 and 1970-71, and while the other two were considered I ended tossing them because of the strength of the Nina during the summer months (I like looking at seasonal trends in addition to the overall value to match up ENSO analogs). mei values were lower in 1961-62 than 1962-63 which was an official weak nina while 1961-62 was classified neutral... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 great write-up! Very clearly presented and logical. So, it seems nearly every cold winter forecast is banking on the -NAO occurring. To me, the confidense of a cold eastern seaboard jumps tremendously with a -NAO in place. What is the outcome if this does not happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Amazing outlook and great write-up. Good luck with your forecast, it seems very reasonable esp your analysis on the QBO and PDO/AMO. BTW what do you think about my region? Toronto, Ontario? I personally think 2008-09 is a great analogue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great discussion, well-reasponed. Question on your weak La Nina composite: were you going by MEI or ONI mainly? Because 1956-57, 1962-63, 1974-75 were all weak Ninas per ONI and aren't on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 great write-up! Very clearly presented and logical. So, it seems nearly every cold winter forecast is banking on the -NAO occurring. To me, the confidense of a cold eastern seaboard jumps tremendously with a -NAO in place. What is the outcome if this does not happen? The -PDO/weak/moderate La Nina will likely favor a trough in western Canada and into the NW US, this would likely favor a really warm US if there is no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Amazing outlook and great write-up. Good luck with your forecast, it seems very reasonable esp your analysis on the QBO and PDO/AMO. BTW what do you think about my region? Toronto, Ontario? I personally think 2008-09 is a great analogue as well. Should be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Great discussion, well-reasponed. Question on your weak La Nina composite: were you going by MEI or ONI mainly? Because 1956-57, 1962-63, 1974-75 were all weak Ninas per ONI and aren't on there. I focused mostly on MEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Nice read Allen. Thanks for sharing this and thanks for Your hard work researching what needed to be researched for this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Good job as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Sure. Obviously I took bits and pieces of the following years but didnt rely solely on them. 2010-11 ( Although this was a strong La Nina, the Atlantic had similarities, also the expectation for similar strong blocking, -PDO) 1955-56 (Same as with 2010-11, draw back again is that this Nina should be weaker than 55-56) 1970-71 (Main drawback was -AMO) 1950-51 (Could be decent match, but I expect more blocking overall) 1961-62 I looked at others but alot of pattern ideas came from the above. Nice write-up. I have 1955-56 as one of my main analog years as well. Surprised you have 10-11 and not 08-09, but I do agree the former has more similarities than not to the current global regime (comparable NAO, AMO, and PDO states). If most of us are correct, should be another pretty cold winter nationwide. There seems to be a fairly strong consensus on the Southern tier being warm.You're more bullish on overwhelming cold for all three months than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Should be a good one. Great to hear you think it will be a good winter in Ontario. The past two winter, while amazing in the US have been duds up here, with 2009-2010 being awful. Do you think 1970-71 could be a strong analog? That year saw a warm October in both Toronto and Ottawa, but turned very snowy come December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Great to hear you think it will be a good winter in Ontario. The past two winter, while amazing in the US have been duds up here, with 2009-2010 being awful. Do you think 1970-71 could be a strong analog? That year saw a warm October in both Toronto and Ottawa, but turned very snowy come December. I know you'd like that. We wouldn't down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Alan, When will you be changing your Dec forecast to reflect the ensembles flooding Canada with mild air and erasing any snowcover they gain over the next 2 weeks? Alot of mets are becoming very worried over a torch December now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Alan, When will you be changing your Dec forecast to reflect the ensembles flooding Canada with mild air and erasing any snowcover they gain over the next 2 weeks? Alot of mets are becoming very worried over a torch December now LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Alan, When will you be changing your Dec forecast to reflect the ensembles flooding Canada with mild air and erasing any snowcover they gain over the next 2 weeks? Alot of mets are becoming very worried over a torch December now Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Who? Bastardi, although he claims the Euro weeklies are not in line with his thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Bastardi, although he claims the Euro weeklies are not in line with his thinking. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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