AO Forecast to Plunge

[Amped]

Warmings start with a "Flat Tire" PV look

Not sure I understand them but here are some some animations so you could recognize one.

Select any event, then Click Veiw Events>Animations> Geopotential Height

http://www.appmath.c.../ssws/index.php

Or 2D PV looks similar.

[mitchnick]

I like this pic too

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=f240&var=ta1&lng=eng

[Srain]

Don, the signals are becoming a bit clearer of a return of the blocking regime via guidance in the medium range. What are you thoughts on a more cooperative Pacific pattern with the shift of the GOA low westward toward the Aleutians and a neutral/slightly +PNA now seen in the ensembles? Knowing your forecasting is primarily EC centered, you always offer interesting tidbits for those of us further W. It sure appears that the pattern may well be setting up to a more conducive situation for those of us in the Southern Plains and drought parched regions as we move in January. Happy New Year! Steve

[wxmx]

Don, the signals are becoming a bit clearer of a return of the blocking regime via guidance in the medium range. What are you thoughts on a more cooperative Pacific pattern with the shift of the GOA low westward toward the Aleutians and a neutral/slightly +PNA now seen in the ensembles? Knowing your forecasting is primarily EC centered, you always offer interesting tidbits for those of us further W. It sure appears that the pattern may well be setting up to a more conducive situation for those of us in the Southern Plains and drought parched regions as we move in January. Happy New Year! Steve

Not Don, but it looks like the non-Niñaish Pacific won't last much, as I first feared... but the potential of high latitude ridging/blocking is increasing...and I'm not just talking next 10 days...but for late Jan and early Feb. We may end up in a similar pattern to late November/December for most of the CONUS.

First, the debacle of the Pacific. You can see that Aleutian ridging is forecasted to return...this, with time, will promote a GOA low and any W coast ridging will be gone.

But then, you can also see the -NAO...which will prevent any torching E of the Rockies.

After that things might get interesting. A new MT induced wave in the Eurasian zone (yet again) might trigger a stratospheric warming.

You can see the spike at the end from 10hpa to 1.0hpa...which is really in the upper stratosphere, still far from affecting the troposphere, but that's how stratospheric warmings get going.

In the next figure you can see rather strong westerlies in the stratosphere, sign of a strong PV at day 0 (yesterday's analysis)

And this is the Euro forecast for day 10

The blue between 80N-90N well up in the stratosphere show a reversal of the winds... that's still far away from a MMW (Mid Winter Major Warming), but that's just the beginning, and even if the MMW doesn't materialize, the PV won't be as strong as it is now, leaving a window of opportunity for future ridging in the AO, NAO zones.

Now, we should just watch the signals and see how they develop.

[nzucker]

Absurdly negative AO on Day 10 ECM. What the heck is going on up there?

[Jebman]

Absurdly negative AO on Day 10 ECM. What the heck is going on up there?

Welcome to the realized impact of the NEW Solar Minimum - What meteorologists and climatologists will refer to as the Jebman Minimum which will last 30 to 100 years. They will name it after me because in the midst of massive unprecedented migration of people south during the 2010s and especially during the 2020s, Jebman INSISTED on moving NORTH into even more forbiddingly frigid snowy conditions after which the entire Northern Hemisphere looked on, with their jaws resting on the ground.

[okie333]

Welcome to the realized impact of the NEW Solar Minimum - What meteorologists and climatologists will refer to as the Jebman Minimum which will last 30 to 100 years. They will name it after me because in the midst of massive unprecedented migration of people south during the 2010s and especially during the 2020s, Jebman INSISTED on moving NORTH into even more forbiddingly frigid snowy conditions after which the entire Northern Hemisphere looked on, with their jaws resting on the ground.

Some dude named Eddy already had that idea... or rather, others had that idea for him.

[usedtobe]

Based on the fall snow cover in Europe, Judah Cohen is forecasting below normal temps in the east Jan-March.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/

[VAwxman]

Based on the fall snow cover in Europe, Judah Cohen is forecasting below normal temps in the east Jan-March.

http://voices.washin...talweathergang/

Interesting. I do believe snow cover is playing a role, but I struggle to see why the October snow cover would be the main culprit... not that it isn't a factor, but I can't see using it as the main one. I think the big snows in late Nov into Dec are just as responsible owing to pressure changes influencing the jet stream patterns.

Snow cover in Eurasia in Oct was above normal, but not all that extraordinary, or something that you'd expect to lead to the level of blocking seen so far this winter.

But to be fair, the actual monthly anomaly map does show that the highest concentrations were in much of Siberia, with the European sector being where it was lower than normal.

Nonetheless, whether it is the October snow or the snow cover more recently, it is playing a role IMO.

[bombogenesis]

Less sea ice in the arctic leads to warmer air temperatures and perhaps this warmer air is causing a thicker atmosphere (higher heights) which would explain the much above normal heights up there. I believe Jeff Masters wrote about this on his blog?

[OhioValleyWx]

I started believing the temperate regions were going to be much colder over the next 30 to 40 years starting in 2004. It still will take a few years but with all the evidence I see this could be a runaway positive feedback for colder and colder times for the next several decades. I do not have much to add because everyone has supplied good evidence of why it should continue. I had January being warm but with the signals significantly different in a deepening cold PDO and the beginning subtle cooling of the Atlantic I trimmed the warmth some. Now with the new data it appears that the eastern half of the US gets a "break" from extreme cold but 2 weeks from today we could be setting the stage for some bitter weather over 2/3 of the United States. If trends keep sharpening over the spring, summer, into next fall; next winter could be even colder and stormier farther south.

I live in southwest Ohio and I have told people that Ohio could be the new South Dakota in several years. Our biggest snows are usually mid Jan to mid Feb but if things keep going like some projections indicate, our best snows might be late Oct through early Dec and we just freeze and get light disturbances until mid February because the jet is so far south all we get is light snow events. Then when spring tries to come back the area runs into the warm fight but with so much cold air in place we get an early Spring thump snow and it takes us well into April to start to have any prolonged Spring weather. Basically add 2 to 3 weeks of winter on the front end and add 2 or 3 weeks of winter on the back end. That is a pretty extreme case but when summing up all the conditions that are beginning to occur that might be quite accurate by the 20s decade into the 30s.

Josh

[usedtobe]

Interesting. I do believe snow cover is playing a role, but I struggle to see why the October snow cover would be the main culprit... not that it isn't a factor, but I can't see using it as the main one. I think the big snows in late Nov into Dec are just as responsible owing to pressure changes influencing the jet stream patterns.

Snow cover in Eurasia in Oct was above normal, but not all that extraordinary, or something that you'd expect to lead to the level of blocking seen so far this winter.

But to be fair, the actual monthly anomaly map does show that the highest concentrations were in much of Siberia, with the European sector being where it was lower than normal.

Nonetheless, whether it is the October snow or the snow cover more recently, it is playing a role IMO.

I agree, and suspect the the solar min is just as big a factor. Cohen is getting quite a bit of play for his model. I posted the map because I thought many here would interested in it. It does look like the negative ao is going to return though wehn I looked at the D+11 analogs. at least for he dc area, they aren't that impressive in terms of yielding snow and they suggested the chanced of an inch or more was about the same as climo. Same for the d+8 though it did show one KU storm.

[radarman]

Interesting. I do believe snow cover is playing a role, but I struggle to see why the October snow cover would be the main culprit... not that it isn't a factor, but I can't see using it as the main one. I think the big snows in late Nov into Dec are just as responsible owing to pressure changes influencing the jet stream patterns.

October has the highest snow cover variability over the expanses of Eurasia. By Nov. and Dec. the large majority of the continent is already snow covered, so it's effects become difficult to model, differentially speaking. Also, the angle of the sun is higher of course, so the relative effect of the albedo change is increased early in the season. Basically, it's just an early winter momentum proxy, with the primary mechanism being the establishment of high amplitude vertically propagating waves.

Snow cover in Eurasia in Oct was above normal, but not all that extraordinary, or something that you'd expect to lead to the level of blocking seen so far this winter.

Agreed on both counts. Which is why I don't totally agree with the article, despite my confidence in some of the feedbacks he describes. It certainly does seem like there's something more going on here with the absurd blocking. This model first came to prominence in the great 02-03 winter when the Oct. snow was off the charts, but the AO response was not nearly as significant as last year, when the snow cover was less. My guess is that the AO is inversely correlated to the snow cover anomaly, but the mechanism for cryospheric cooling is only partially related to the actual AO.

[ayuud]

AO tanking

[Madmaxweather]

I started believing the temperate regions were going to be much colder over the next 30 to 40 years starting in 2004. It still will take a few years but with all the evidence I see this could be a runaway positive feedback for colder and colder times for the next several decades. I do not have much to add because everyone has supplied good evidence of why it should continue. I had January being warm but with the signals significantly different in a deepening cold PDO and the beginning subtle cooling of the Atlantic I trimmed the warmth some. Now with the new data it appears that the eastern half of the US gets a "break" from extreme cold but 2 weeks from today we could be setting the stage for some bitter weather over 2/3 of the United States. If trends keep sharpening over the spring, summer, into next fall; next winter could be even colder and stormier farther south.

I live in southwest Ohio and I have told people that Ohio could be the new South Dakota in several years. Our biggest snows are usually mid Jan to mid Feb but if things keep going like some projections indicate, our best snows might be late Oct through early Dec and we just freeze and get light disturbances until mid February because the jet is so far south all we get is light snow events. Then when spring tries to come back the area runs into the warm fight but with so much cold air in place we get an early Spring thump snow and it takes us well into April to start to have any prolonged Spring weather. Basically add 2 to 3 weeks of winter on the front end and add 2 or 3 weeks of winter on the back end. That is a pretty extreme case but when summing up all the conditions that are beginning to occur that might be quite accurate by the 20s decade into the 30s.

Josh

Very nice write up. There is some great data brought up in this thread. Very informative!

[tacoman25]

I am among those who are convinced solar is a much larger factor than fall snowcover. I think the overall evidence clearly indicates that. If we do not see solar activity pick up much before next winter, we will probably see major blocking yet again.

[okie333]

I am among those who are convinced solar is a much larger factor than fall snowcover. I think the overall evidence clearly indicates that. If we do not see solar activity pick up much before next winter, we will probably see major blocking yet again.

Snow cover is important, don't get me wrong, but the Sun is the king when many are making it a mere squire.

AO is going to drop big time around January 10-20 or so.

Tomorrow:

10 days:

The values from 55N-90N above the 30 mark (long term effect on AO), and the values from 65N-90N below the 100 mark (short term effect on AO... some say it is the AO), are the ones to watch. The intersection point at 60N, 10mb (within the long-term region), is often used to define stratospheric warming events (note that for all these regions, a low value is good, and a negative value is amazingly great). QBO (EQ from 30 to 50) also looks to be starting its downturn.

[wxmx]

Snow cover is important, don't get me wrong, but the Sun is the king when many are making it a mere squire.

AO is going to drop big time around January 10-20 or so.

Tomorrow:

10 days:

The values from 55N-90N above the 30 mark (long term effect on AO), and the values from 65N-90N below the 100 mark (short term effect on AO... some say it is the AO), are the ones to watch. The intersection point at 60N, 10mb (within the long-term region), is often used to define stratospheric warming events (note that for all these regions, a low value is good, and a negative value is amazingly great). QBO (EQ from 30 to 50) also looks to be starting its downturn.

That 10 day forecast is jaw dropping...PV gets utterly annihilated in the troposphere.

[wxmx]

PV splits then it's displaced well away from the polar regions in the lower stratosphere... too bad that not on our side of the world.

[OhioValleyWx]

I am among those who are convinced solar is a much larger factor than fall snowcover. I think the overall evidence clearly indicates that. If we do not see solar activity pick up much before next winter, we will probably see major blocking yet again.

I second or third or infinity that notion of solar playing a serious role. It might take a few years to really start to feel the effects but it has been a few years and the effects are starting to show up quite large now. Snow, indeed has a role, and has more of a quick effect but the devil is the long progression of weakening solar activity. If it stays quiet as you mention it will only become more pronounced. Most want quick and direct effects to have proof that things are changing but the major problems occur with the sleeping giants that do not necessarily show a great impact all at once but a little at a time and then when you sit back and look at the whole perspective you realize how major a change has occurred. Subtleties are the signs that I pay most attention to.

Josh

[radarman]

PV splits then it's displaced well away from the polar regions in the lower stratosphere... too bad that not on our side of the world.

Yes, it looks like primary vortex ends up sitting in North China by the end of next week. Hopefully in turn it rips up a monster ridge over Kamchatka or something, promoting more HP over the pole, and eventually an arctic outbreak over on this side, but that'll take an extra week to ten days. Might be closer to the 20th by the time we experience the effects of all this, but it's all part and parcel.

[Jebman]

I could not be happier. I hope we are headed straight for another Maunder Minimum period.

I want my frigid weather with snow. I'd also love polar bears in Northern Virginia!!! I love times of low sunspot activity so much!!!

Could anthropogenic warming have ALREADY tipped us over toward another period of severe cooling in the Northern Hemisphere?

Has anyone checked the North Atlantic Current lately? Could it be slowing down some?

We live in VERY interesting times indeed!!!

I'd love much shorter summers and much more severe, longer winters!!!

I'll never be allowed to move north, but the north is coming south to me!!!!!

Woooooooooo---Hoooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

[A-L-E-X]

I second or third or infinity that notion of solar playing a serious role. It might take a few years to really start to feel the effects but it has been a few years and the effects are starting to show up quite large now. Snow, indeed has a role, and has more of a quick effect but the devil is the long progression of weakening solar activity. If it stays quiet as you mention it will only become more pronounced. Most want quick and direct effects to have proof that things are changing but the major problems occur with the sleeping giants that do not necessarily show a great impact all at once but a little at a time and then when you sit back and look at the whole perspective you realize how major a change has occurred. Subtleties are the signs that I pay most attention to.

Josh

I agree and this is why our best analogs are coming from the early part of the 20th century. When we look at the cyclic nature of the indicies we have to keep in mind that there has to be a "parent" to their cyclical nature, and solar output is the "parent" of all weather phenomena on our planet.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I could not be happier. I hope we are headed straight for another Maunder Minimum period.

I want my frigid weather with snow. I'd also love polar bears in Northern Virginia!!! I love times of low sunspot activity so much!!!

Woooooooooo---Hoooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

Not to rain on your party but odds are If it happens you'll be dead and gone by that time. lolz

[pcbjr]

From RaleighWx's Model site - into positive mid-month (????). 18Z blip ?

[Amped]

Long range GFS doesn't actually show a PV collapse at 10 MB There is a second warming though on the 13th that looks more promising. I have no Idea how accurate the GFS is at this level. I'm not too optomistic about it. Sorry if this causes page loading problems.

[Isotherm]

I am among those who are convinced solar is a much larger factor than fall snowcover. I think the overall evidence clearly indicates that. If we do not see solar activity pick up much before next winter, we will probably see major blocking yet again.

Tacoman -- interesting I just posted essentially the same thing in my winter outlook thread. With a weaker ENSO coupled with continued low solar environment, and decadal trends (-PDO, -NAO, falling AMO) the next several winters could be pretty interesting globally. There's no doubt in my mind the Sun is the main culprit for the historic blocking we've seen the past two winters. I was pretty convinced after seeing Landscheidt's work this past fall on NAO/solar correlations, but now I'm 100% certain after we've all seen the NAO basically give strong la nina the middle finger.

[am19psu]

I was pretty convinced after seeing Landscheidt's work this past fall on NAO/solar correlations

Do you have a link to the articles? Or will a simple google or google scholar search turn up everything I need to read?

[nynjpaweather]

Do you have a link to the articles? Or will a simple google or google scholar search turn up everything I need to read?

You can find everything pretty easily on Google. Just be specific and you'll be good to go.

[am19psu]

You can find everything pretty easily on Google. Just be specific and you'll be good to go.

Do I need to be looking for refereed journal articles or blog posts? Thanks.