bluewave Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I am not sure that the November 1994 and 2003 analogs were high on the list of choices for this November. At least the first half of the month looks like it will have similar teleconnections to those two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think we need to look at 2000 as an analog. An active tornado season + an active hurricane season + La Nina + Snow in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I think we need to look at 2000 as an analog. An active tornado season + an active hurricane season + La Nina + Snow in October 2000 did fairly good during the first half of the month temp-wise compared to the forecast. 2nd half of the month turned cold throughout the U.S. PNA actually finished at +0.74 for the monthly average, with a -NAO and a very solid -AO. That led into a +PNA, -NAO/-AO December much like we're expecting to see. Not a bad analog, though January 2001 sketches me out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I do not like 00-01 as an analog at all... 03-04 is actually quite a good analog, though. Not so sure about 93-94, but the similarities are (apparently) there as well. What are we thinking about major storm potential again at the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I am not sure that the November 1994 and 2003 analogs were high on the list of choices for this November. At least the first half of the month looks like it will have similar teleconnections to those two months. Why would you use them as an analogue based just on how similar the h5 set up was at this time now compared to then? That set up May be the case now but, alot of different drivers are on the table for this upcoming winter than were then , particularly 1994-95; Enso sticks out like a sore thumb as it was opposite that year. If something akin to a '94-95 winter did occur many on here would have to see a shrink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I do not like 00-01 as an analog at all... 03-04 is actually quite a good analog, though. Not so sure about 93-94, but the similarities are (apparently) there as well. What are we thinking about major storm potential again at the end of the month? He was using November '94 not '93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I do not like 00-01 as an analog at all... 03-04 is actually quite a good analog, though. Not so sure about 93-94, but the similarities are (apparently) there as well. What are we thinking about major storm potential again at the end of the month? Any particular reason why 00-01 doesn't work for you at all? I could see another significant storm late this month... a lot of things coming together for it (though the whole tropical interaction thing was rather unique with the Oct storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 Why would you use them as an analogue based just on how similar the h5 set up was at this time now compared to then? That set up May be the case now but, alot of different drivers are on the table for this upcoming winter than were then , particularly 1994-95; Enso sticks out like a sore thumb as it was opposite that year. If something akin to a '94-95 winter did occur many on here would have to see a shrink I am only talking about what the pattern looks like for the start of this month. I am not trying to use these two particular analogs to figure out the winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I am only talking about what the pattern looks like for the start of this month. I am not trying to use these two particular analogs to figure out the winter yet. Yeah, Sorry about that Chris. I didn't notice you were speaking of just the start of November. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 2002 if I'm not wrong also started quite mild until that Mid-South severe wx outbreak changed the pattern. I don't think we had quite as strong a positive height anomaly in the East as 1994 and 2003. The problem though with 1994 and 2002 is that both were El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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