mitchnick Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Remember that November 2009 was a torch, and we know how that winter turned out. So a mild November doesn't always mean the winter will be mild. Yeah, and I read DT's post on Facebook yesterday he referenced 11/09 and said "it was a nasty cool autumn"....not here (at BWI, OCT was -.8F and NOV was +3.2F) and we were ground zero for snows that year IAD and DCA had similar results for those two months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time. The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state. But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea. I am all about a cold and snowy January though. I'll take that I still say the E QBO saves us to get BWI AN snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Tuesday may be an active day if we can scour the clouds and the timing of the front is right. Maybe strong winds possible tornado or 2? looks pretty iffy overall.. not really a tornado setup per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 here's a bone 18Z NAM at the end of the run puts the front through BWI/DCA at 78 hrs so that we're at or below freezing at 850 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M still plenty of moisture behind the 850 line at 78 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F13%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 81 and 84 panels show precip falling but surface temps ain't so hot this is similar setup to last week when I mentioned that the stubborn SE ridge may give us some rain to snow events hey, it's something to practice fantasizing about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I'll take that I still say the E QBO saves us to get BWI AN snows The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Great post. You should post this in some of the other sub forums given many are freaking out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January. I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic. The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5). Man, I love you and hope the he!! you are right!!!! at 53, waiting for "next year" gets all the more tenuous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 here's a bone 18Z NAM at the end of the run puts the front through BWI/DCA at 78 hrs so that we're at or below freezing at 850 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M still plenty of moisture behind the 850 line at 78 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M 81 and 84 panels show precip falling but surface temps ain't so hot this is similar setup to last week when I mentioned that the stubborn SE ridge may give us some rain to snow events hey, it's something to practice fantasizing about! . At 81 hrs the surface temp forecast by the nam is 44 degrees so I wouldn't get too excited even if you want to fantasize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 '67-'68 was a 40" winter here. The second November snowfall was 8", there was a 9" storm in Dec, a 6" fall that began on 2/29, and a 10" storm two weeks later, in March. The first half of January was bitterly cold with a low at MRB of -13 twice, on 1/2 and 1/12. That two-week cold wave had an average daily hi/lo of 25/2 with consistent heavy snowcover. Would love to come close to duplicating that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 . At 81 hrs the surface temp forecast by the nam is 44 degrees so I wouldn't get too excited even if you want to fantasize. yep, which is why I said practice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Big news is we might finally get a freeze at DCA late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Big news is we might finally get a freeze at DCA late week. I've already had 3 or 4 nights at freezing or below. Shows how much the river impacts DCA's temps. I've been to 30 twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 So are we really going to see 1-2" of rain Tues/Wed? Don't see much talk of this upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 10hpa is the 1% of the atmosphere. Can't wait to see what it does to those protesters this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still looking at a fair amount of rain for the midweek event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I've already had 3 or 4 nights at freezing or below. Shows how much the river impacts DCA's temps. I've been to 30 twice. I've been down to 26* three times and 25* once more. I've actually been quite surprised at how many nights I've reached freezing this year. Of course, this is the first year I've had a fall/winter garden, so I've been paying quite a bit more attention to temperatures (as opposed to "dang, it's chilly this morning")... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Charleston NWS says it well..."OUR ATTENTION HAS GONE QUICKLY FROM BRUSH FIRE CONCERNS TO FLOOD CONCERNS." They have the upper limit at over 3" possible by Wednesday night in my area. Gusty Thunderstorms this evening...slight risk area is just to my west. Warm winds are gusting out of the south as they were all day yesterday. Leaves were flying everywhere. The airports gusts are into the 20s this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still looking at a fair amount of rain for the midweek event NAM says what rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM says what rain We've had too much rain as of late anyways. need a return to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Have you been tracking the 06Z and 18Z GFS to see if winter should be canceled? Don't you mean uncanceled? Ji cancelled it over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 We've had too much rain as of late anyways. need a return to normal I think we need to see that it can still get wet around here as winter approaches....I know it was wet but I'm not looking for it to start getting dry just as winter comes along....anywho...the weather will do what it wants to do....good luck to all of those forecasts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 might be cool to have the driest november on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 So far through yesterday BWI -1.1 DCA -1.6 IAD -2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 might be cool to have the driest november on record Rainfall so far BWI 0.12 DCA 0.06 IAD 0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Rainfall so far BWI 0.12 DCA 0.06 IAD 0.07 it'll be tough probably but we're on pace so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 So far through yesterday BWI -1.1 DCA -1.6 IAD -2.8 Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out. Night time minimums sure have helped out Dulles....I'm also guessing the new norms were a bit higher than the old ones....seems like it was hard for IAD to be negative for the longest time but now not so much...so far anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM says what rain http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F14%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Come on Mitch...an inch vs. .30??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 71 and sun. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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