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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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I've already had 3 or 4 nights at freezing or below. Shows how much the river impacts DCA's temps. I've been to 30 twice.

I've been down to 26* three times and 25* once more. I've actually been quite surprised at how many nights I've reached freezing this year. Of course, this is the first year I've had a fall/winter garden, so I've been paying quite a bit more attention to temperatures (as opposed to "dang, it's chilly this morning")...

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Charleston NWS says it well..."OUR ATTENTION HAS GONE QUICKLY FROM BRUSH FIRE CONCERNS TO FLOOD

CONCERNS."

They have the upper limit at over 3" possible by Wednesday night in my area. Gusty Thunderstorms this evening...slight risk area is just to my west.

Warm winds are gusting out of the south as they were all day yesterday. Leaves were flying everywhere. The airports gusts are into the 20s this morning.

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We've had too much rain as of late anyways. need a return to normal

I think we need to see that it can still get wet around here as winter approaches....I know it was wet but I'm not looking for it to start getting dry just as winter comes along....anywho...the weather will do what it wants to do....good luck to all of those forecasts out there.

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So far through yesterday

BWI -1.1

DCA -1.6

IAD -2.8

Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out.

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Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out.

Night time minimums sure have helped out Dulles....I'm also guessing the new norms were a bit higher than the old ones....seems like it was hard for IAD to be negative for the longest time but now not so much...so far anyway

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Rainfall so far

BWI 0.12

DCA 0.06

IAD 0.07

And yet my backyard is still damp. Cool weather and lack of sun (due to massive trees in bak neighbors' yards) mean the yard just doesn't dry out come mid-October unless we get warmth and a lot of wind.

This month has pretty much been great weather-wise, and made even better by being in the Florida Panhandle this week for work.

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GFS is fairly wet as well at 12z so not sure why the NAM stayed dry(I'm too lazy to go look at the differences track wise between the two)

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Without having any real type of EC troughing and having a -pna for the balance of the month will likely lead to a dry month for the most part.

I'm really enjoying seasonal temps and dry weather this month. I broke a nice sweat on Saturday wearing shorts and a t-shirt. Driving into work today with the windows down was nice too.

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it'll be tough probably but we're on pace so far

Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim.

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Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim.

Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip

2005

2001

1964

1931

1918

1917

1878

1874

And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter

01-02, northern tier torch, east dry

64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl

17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast

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Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip

2005

2001

1964

1931

1918

1917

1878

1874

And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter

01-02, northern tier torch, east dry

64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl

17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast

Thanks, it's very informative that eight other Novembers started this dry in DC, especially since the record-setting month of November 1981 is not on the list. DCA recorded measurable precipitation on the following days that month:

November 5th: 0.08 inch

November 6th: 0.19 inch

November 17th: 0.01 inch

November 24th: 0.01 inch

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The best example of a mild November leading to a mild winter in this area is 2001. November 2001 in DC was a record high 54.8 degrees, and that was followed by 45.5 in December (tied for third highest all-time), 41.6 in January 2002 (14th highest all-time), and 42.6 in February (14th highest all-time). Snow at DCA during 2001-2002 was 3.2 inches and was even less at IAD (2.6 inches).

Thanks a bunch for the info..

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