H2O Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still looking at a fair amount of rain for the midweek event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I've already had 3 or 4 nights at freezing or below. Shows how much the river impacts DCA's temps. I've been to 30 twice. I've been down to 26* three times and 25* once more. I've actually been quite surprised at how many nights I've reached freezing this year. Of course, this is the first year I've had a fall/winter garden, so I've been paying quite a bit more attention to temperatures (as opposed to "dang, it's chilly this morning")... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Charleston NWS says it well..."OUR ATTENTION HAS GONE QUICKLY FROM BRUSH FIRE CONCERNS TO FLOOD CONCERNS." They have the upper limit at over 3" possible by Wednesday night in my area. Gusty Thunderstorms this evening...slight risk area is just to my west. Warm winds are gusting out of the south as they were all day yesterday. Leaves were flying everywhere. The airports gusts are into the 20s this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Still looking at a fair amount of rain for the midweek event NAM says what rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM says what rain We've had too much rain as of late anyways. need a return to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Have you been tracking the 06Z and 18Z GFS to see if winter should be canceled? Don't you mean uncanceled? Ji cancelled it over a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 We've had too much rain as of late anyways. need a return to normal I think we need to see that it can still get wet around here as winter approaches....I know it was wet but I'm not looking for it to start getting dry just as winter comes along....anywho...the weather will do what it wants to do....good luck to all of those forecasts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 might be cool to have the driest november on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 So far through yesterday BWI -1.1 DCA -1.6 IAD -2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 might be cool to have the driest november on record Rainfall so far BWI 0.12 DCA 0.06 IAD 0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Rainfall so far BWI 0.12 DCA 0.06 IAD 0.07 it'll be tough probably but we're on pace so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 So far through yesterday BWI -1.1 DCA -1.6 IAD -2.8 Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Probably ~+10 today, ~+10 tomorrow, ~+5 Wednesday, ~-3-5 Thursday, ~-5-8 Friday, ~-5 Saturday, and near normal Sunday. So that stretch will probably bring us a bit closer to normal on the month, before another warm up early next week and then a potential cold shot for the end of the month. I bet we end up within 1F of normal either way if that shakes out. Night time minimums sure have helped out Dulles....I'm also guessing the new norms were a bit higher than the old ones....seems like it was hard for IAD to be negative for the longest time but now not so much...so far anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM says what rain http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F14%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Come on Mitch...an inch vs. .30??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 71 and sun. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Rainfall so far BWI 0.12 DCA 0.06 IAD 0.07 And yet my backyard is still damp. Cool weather and lack of sun (due to massive trees in bak neighbors' yards) mean the yard just doesn't dry out come mid-October unless we get warmth and a lot of wind. This month has pretty much been great weather-wise, and made even better by being in the Florida Panhandle this week for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Come on Mitch...an inch vs. .30??? I've had this argument with my wife before so I'm not going to have it with you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 fwiw, RGEM is pretty wet over the next few days with plenty to come after 48 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 fwiw, RGEM is pretty wet over the next few days with plenty to come after 48 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg GFS is fairly wet as well at 12z so not sure why the NAM stayed dry(I'm too lazy to go look at the differences track wise between the two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M the DC split is back... edit: it never really went away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 GFS is fairly wet as well at 12z so not sure why the NAM stayed dry(I'm too lazy to go look at the differences track wise between the two) NAM is always dry till 24-36 hours before the event and then it always almost too wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Without having any real type of EC troughing and having a -pna for the balance of the month will likely lead to a dry month for the most part. I'm really enjoying seasonal temps and dry weather this month. I broke a nice sweat on Saturday wearing shorts and a t-shirt. Driving into work today with the windows down was nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 it'll be tough probably but we're on pace so far Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Your post got me to thinking about the relationship (or lack thereof) between being "on pace" with "what is most likely to happen." DCA has recorded only 0.06 inches of precipitation so far this month through 13+ days, and so you're absolutely correct that it is on pace to record less precipitation than the record low of 0.29 inches that were recorded there in November 1981. However, if you consider that Washington, DC has averaged 2.78 inches of precipitation in November during 1871-2010, all things being equal we would expect about an inch and a half of precipitation during November 15-30 (i.e., 2.78 inches over 30 days equals about .093 inches per day, and multiplying .093 inches per day by 16 days equals 1.49 inches). Accordingly, even though we're currently on pace for a record low amount of precipitation this month, the odds of it happening are actually pretty slim. Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip 2005 2001 1964 1931 1918 1917 1878 1874 And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter 01-02, northern tier torch, east dry 64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl 17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip 2005 2001 1964 1931 1918 1917 1878 1874 And because this is what we do, picking out the ninas only for the winter 01-02, northern tier torch, east dry 64-65, northern plains bitter, near normal temps and precip mid-atl 17-18, COLD and dry plains to east coast Thanks, it's very informative that eight other Novembers started this dry in DC, especially since the record-setting month of November 1981 is not on the list. DCA recorded measurable precipitation on the following days that month: November 5th: 0.08 inch November 6th: 0.19 inch November 17th: 0.01 inch November 24th: 0.01 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 This would be spectacular weather for Opening Day. Someone fast forward this weather to late March/early April 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 This would be spectacular weather for Opening Day. Someone fast forward this weather to late March/early April 2012. A little too warm for soccer. 15 degrees or so less would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The best example of a mild November leading to a mild winter in this area is 2001. November 2001 in DC was a record high 54.8 degrees, and that was followed by 45.5 in December (tied for third highest all-time), 41.6 in January 2002 (14th highest all-time), and 42.6 in February (14th highest all-time). Snow at DCA during 2001-2002 was 3.2 inches and was even less at IAD (2.6 inches). Thanks a bunch for the info.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 NAM is always dry till 24-36 hours before the event and then it always almost too wet Remember that come snowstorm time when it shows 3" QPF right before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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