November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion

[Ellinwood]

This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill.

If a regularly-run model didn't have at least some skill, it probably wouldn't be running (especially at the level of something like the Euro). Just because a model has some skill doesn't mean you have to use any of its output. I forecast with the assumption that whatever the weeklies have past week one is probably going to be wrong... it works more often than not.

He's just trying to make his it's going to get cold at D+10 that he made 7 days ago look less silly.

Verification is objective, and I admit to being wrong. Can't win 'em all.

[Riptide]

The models continue to show disaster. Warm December start likely?

That +AO is killing our chances, need the cold air to move out of the arctic.

[snownut]

No rain here in November and little hope this week.... The switch was flipped October 29th.

[usedtobe]

The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading.

[clueless]

The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading.

Moving on to mid-December?

Looks like there is no excuse for that unfinished yard work for many-a-moon.

[usedtobe]

Moving on to mid-December?

Looks like there is no excuse for that unfinished yard work for many-a-moon.

I wouldn't yet speculate that far in advance. All I'm saying is through this month, things don't look promising.

[HM]

The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading.

I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up.

[stormman]

I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up.

Hey HM havent seen you on here in quite a while, what are your thoughts for the patter change, originally most were thinking later november, now most are thinking mid december?

[BethesdaWX]

This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill.

Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Low of the season at my house, but still no freeze. Same at DCA, low of 33.

TALLAHASSEE 22 >DCA 33

just crazy

[Ian]

Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so.

skill and "past d 7" are not words you can believe too much together in general

[ORH_wxman]

Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so.

Their skill diminishes the further you go out in time like any model, but they have done just fine in the past at that time range....last winter they were very good at identifying the record blocking in December a few weeks out. It certainly doesn't mean they are going to be right this time. But at this point, I don't exactly see a reason that is screaming that they are off their rocker for early December. Hopefully they are wrong about the big positive EPO.

[Ji]

its time to pull out the old" Thank God this pattern is happening in november and not december"

[HM]

Hey HM havent seen you on here in quite a while, what are your thoughts for the patter change, originally most were thinking later november, now most are thinking mid december?

I have posted here and there. Yesterday I was in the New England sub forum. I think the late November pattern change is just fine. The +AAM recently and forcing shifting quickly into the "El Niño" regions is messing with the progs a little bit and also making things warmer. I don't really see anything right now that would suggest things aren't acting out of expectations, as far as on a climate-sense.

Perhaps 09-10 and 10-11 skewed perceptions on what normal is and that isn't a 580dm block over Greenland, lol.

[beavis1729]

TALLAHASSEE 22 >DCA 33

just crazy

Yeah...and even Chicago-O'Hare hasn't dropped below 30F yet this Fall...crazy.

[H2O]

Chilly start but otherwise spectacular day. Little breezy but perfect outdoor yard work weather.

As far as what the reston the month in Dec will be...I have learned to be patient with weather around here.

[Deck Pic]

1320098331[/url]' post='1086924']

I think November will probably be below normal here this year, though no huge signal....I think it will take on more of an el nino look though with the coldest anomalies in the south and warm in the upper midwest and plains...I think this "consensus" forecast of a brutal winter in the upper midwest and plains could be in trouble....I don't see a November anything like 1995

Pats back....so far at least.

[ThreeRedheads]

Chilly start but otherwise spectacular day. Little breezy but perfect outdoor yard work weather.

As far as what the reston the month in Dec will be...I have learned to be patient with weather around here.

For the lolz file!

[brad1551]

November has been a nice month so far. No complaints from me at all. Were still in the fall equinox were warm temps come and cool temps follow. Soon the cooler temps will follow with cold blast. The real question is when? I was talking to someone today and they said usually a warm November means a mild winter. I said bs prove it and enlighten me with knowledge. Conversation ended quick. Look I am not a Met and I am going to college to become a Met. I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters. I am learning facts and not bs thankyou.

[WxUSAF]

Well don't look now, but all 3 airports are still below normal on temps for the month-to-date.

BWI: -1.3F

DCA: -2F

IAD: -3F (!!)

Looks like the first half of the week will see days ~5-10 degrees above normal before ending the week with days ~5-10 below. Then probably another warm up coming in a week's time before a potential big cold shot around Thanksgiving. Point being, the temp departure for the month will probably depend on the days after Thanksgiving, because we'll probably be near normal by Black Friday.

[RodneyS]

I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters.

The best example of a mild November leading to a mild winter in this area is 2001. November 2001 in DC was a record high 54.8 degrees, and that was followed by 45.5 in December (tied for third highest all-time), 41.6 in January 2002 (14th highest all-time), and 42.6 in February (14th highest all-time). Snow at DCA during 2001-2002 was 3.2 inches and was even less at IAD (2.6 inches).

[Stormpc]

Tuesday may be an active day if we can scour the clouds and the timing of the front is right. Maybe strong winds possible tornado or 2?

[usedtobe]

I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up.

It's a decent cold shot but there is too much low pressure to our north to get any snow down here. I don't like the pattern through the month.

[Bob Chill]

MJO is currently in phase 7 and approaching 8. Kinda weak though. I hope it doesn't fizzle before phases 1 - 2.

[HM]

It's a decent cold shot but there is too much low pressure to our north to get any snow down here. I don't like the pattern through the month.

I agree that this isn't some widespread snow threat but I do think when the s/w comes overhead Thursday-Thu Night, there could be some interesting showers out there.

[PhineasC]

MJO is currently in phase 7 and approaching 8. Kinda weak though. I hope it doesn't fizzle before phases 1 - 2.

Have you been tracking the 06Z and 18Z GFS to see if winter should be canceled?

[stormman]

I agree that this isn't some widespread snow threat but I do think when the s/w comes overhead Thursday-Thu Night, there could be some interesting showers out there.

Hm,

a lot of people are starting to throw out the 2001-2002 winter, where everyone kept saying its going to turn cold and stormy and it never did, and we just ended up with one snow event late january and that was the winter. Are you concerned any, or do you feel we will eventually see a big flip in pattern to a cold and snowy one?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

November has been a nice month so far. No complaints from me at all. Were still in the fall equinox were warm temps come and cool temps follow. Soon the cooler temps will follow with cold blast. The real question is when? I was talking to someone today and they said usually a warm November means a mild winter. I said bs prove it and enlighten me with knowledge. Conversation ended quick. Look I am not a Met and I am going to college to become a Met. I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters. I am learning facts and not bs thankyou.

Remember that November 2009 was a torch, and we know how that winter turned out.

So a mild November doesn't always mean the winter will be mild.

[HM]

Hm,

a lot of people are starting to throw out the 2001-2002 winter, where everyone kept saying its going to turn cold and stormy and it never did, and we just ended up with one snow event late january and that was the winter. Are you concerned any, or do you feel we will eventually see a big flip in pattern to a cold and snowy one?

A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time.

The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state.

But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea.

I am all about a cold and snowy January though.

[stormman]

A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time.

The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state.

But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea.

I am all about a cold and snowy January though.

I hope your right, def dont need another 01-02 winter, im actually up in the suburbs of philly. not dc area