November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion

[HM]

Hey HM havent seen you on here in quite a while, what are your thoughts for the patter change, originally most were thinking later november, now most are thinking mid december?

I have posted here and there. Yesterday I was in the New England sub forum. I think the late November pattern change is just fine. The +AAM recently and forcing shifting quickly into the "El Niño" regions is messing with the progs a little bit and also making things warmer. I don't really see anything right now that would suggest things aren't acting out of expectations, as far as on a climate-sense.

Perhaps 09-10 and 10-11 skewed perceptions on what normal is and that isn't a 580dm block over Greenland, lol.

[beavis1729]

TALLAHASSEE 22 >DCA 33

just crazy

Yeah...and even Chicago-O'Hare hasn't dropped below 30F yet this Fall...crazy.

[H2O]

Chilly start but otherwise spectacular day. Little breezy but perfect outdoor yard work weather.

As far as what the reston the month in Dec will be...I have learned to be patient with weather around here.

[ThreeRedheads]

Chilly start but otherwise spectacular day. Little breezy but perfect outdoor yard work weather.

As far as what the reston the month in Dec will be...I have learned to be patient with weather around here.

For the lolz file!

[brad1551]

November has been a nice month so far. No complaints from me at all. Were still in the fall equinox were warm temps come and cool temps follow. Soon the cooler temps will follow with cold blast. The real question is when? I was talking to someone today and they said usually a warm November means a mild winter. I said bs prove it and enlighten me with knowledge. Conversation ended quick. Look I am not a Met and I am going to college to become a Met. I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters. I am learning facts and not bs thankyou.

[WxUSAF]

Well don't look now, but all 3 airports are still below normal on temps for the month-to-date.

BWI: -1.3F

DCA: -2F

IAD: -3F (!!)

Looks like the first half of the week will see days ~5-10 degrees above normal before ending the week with days ~5-10 below. Then probably another warm up coming in a week's time before a potential big cold shot around Thanksgiving. Point being, the temp departure for the month will probably depend on the days after Thanksgiving, because we'll probably be near normal by Black Friday.

[RodneyS]

I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters.

The best example of a mild November leading to a mild winter in this area is 2001. November 2001 in DC was a record high 54.8 degrees, and that was followed by 45.5 in December (tied for third highest all-time), 41.6 in January 2002 (14th highest all-time), and 42.6 in February (14th highest all-time). Snow at DCA during 2001-2002 was 3.2 inches and was even less at IAD (2.6 inches).

[Stormpc]

Tuesday may be an active day if we can scour the clouds and the timing of the front is right. Maybe strong winds possible tornado or 2?

[usedtobe]

I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up.

It's a decent cold shot but there is too much low pressure to our north to get any snow down here. I don't like the pattern through the month.

[Bob Chill]

MJO is currently in phase 7 and approaching 8. Kinda weak though. I hope it doesn't fizzle before phases 1 - 2.

[HM]

It's a decent cold shot but there is too much low pressure to our north to get any snow down here. I don't like the pattern through the month.

I agree that this isn't some widespread snow threat but I do think when the s/w comes overhead Thursday-Thu Night, there could be some interesting showers out there.

[PhineasC]

MJO is currently in phase 7 and approaching 8. Kinda weak though. I hope it doesn't fizzle before phases 1 - 2.

Have you been tracking the 06Z and 18Z GFS to see if winter should be canceled?

[stormman]

I agree that this isn't some widespread snow threat but I do think when the s/w comes overhead Thursday-Thu Night, there could be some interesting showers out there.

Hm,

a lot of people are starting to throw out the 2001-2002 winter, where everyone kept saying its going to turn cold and stormy and it never did, and we just ended up with one snow event late january and that was the winter. Are you concerned any, or do you feel we will eventually see a big flip in pattern to a cold and snowy one?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

November has been a nice month so far. No complaints from me at all. Were still in the fall equinox were warm temps come and cool temps follow. Soon the cooler temps will follow with cold blast. The real question is when? I was talking to someone today and they said usually a warm November means a mild winter. I said bs prove it and enlighten me with knowledge. Conversation ended quick. Look I am not a Met and I am going to college to become a Met. I want to know if anyone has heard of mild November means mild winter? I do not believe it and I looked it up and can not find anything about it , except patterns of mild novembers with plenty of cold winters. I am learning facts and not bs thankyou.

Remember that November 2009 was a torch, and we know how that winter turned out.

So a mild November doesn't always mean the winter will be mild.

[HM]

Hm,

a lot of people are starting to throw out the 2001-2002 winter, where everyone kept saying its going to turn cold and stormy and it never did, and we just ended up with one snow event late january and that was the winter. Are you concerned any, or do you feel we will eventually see a big flip in pattern to a cold and snowy one?

A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time.

The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state.

But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea.

I am all about a cold and snowy January though.

[stormman]

A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time.

The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state.

But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea.

I am all about a cold and snowy January though.

I hope your right, def dont need another 01-02 winter, im actually up in the suburbs of philly. not dc area

[mitchnick]

Remember that November 2009 was a torch, and we know how that winter turned out.

So a mild November doesn't always mean the winter will be mild.

Yeah, and I read DT's post on Facebook yesterday he referenced 11/09 and said "it was a nasty cool autumn"....not here (at BWI, OCT was -.8F and NOV was +3.2F) and we were ground zero for snows that year

IAD and DCA had similar results for those two months

[mitchnick]

A comparison to 2001-02 is simply not valid at this time.

The Southeast Ridge and variability is something that should be expected in any La Niña winter, especially in the Mid-Atlantic. I also agree with Zywts that the northern Plains looked warm from the get-go for November. As the -AAM state returns and the RNA pattern solidifies, expect a general retrogression to close out the month. This will lead to a very class cold enso late Nov into early December PNA state.

But I have warned countless times this year that this will not be a normal La Niña December and will at times look like 67/56/54 to some extent. After a +AAM peak, there will likely be another Midwest winter storm in early to mid December followed up by a warm shot (with an El Niño looking temp profile across the CONUS). I don't think the East Coast sees any noteworthy storms this December, but I am nervous saying that (given the last several Decembers have featured something incredible). If the DC area is going to see some snow, it may be in the dec 6-14th period?!?! I have no idea.

I am all about a cold and snowy January though.

I'll take that

I still say the E QBO saves us to get BWI AN snows

[Ian]

Tuesday may be an active day if we can scour the clouds and the timing of the front is right. Maybe strong winds possible tornado or 2?

looks pretty iffy overall.. not really a tornado setup per se.

[mitchnick]

here's a bone

18Z NAM at the end of the run

puts the front through BWI/DCA at 78 hrs so that we're at or below freezing at 850

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

still plenty of moisture behind the 850 line at 78 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F13%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

81 and 84 panels show precip falling

but surface temps ain't so hot

this is similar setup to last week when I mentioned that the stubborn SE ridge may give us some rain to snow events

hey, it's something to practice fantasizing about!

[HM]

I'll take that

I still say the E QBO saves us to get BWI AN snows

The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January.

I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic.

The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5).

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January.

I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic.

The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5).

Great post. You should post this in some of the other sub forums given many are freaking out!

[mitchnick]

The unique combination of westerlies in the low levels helping to boost the Aleutian High potential (more poleward) and the oncoming easterlies helping to stir the waves up, could set the stage for some good blocking this January.

I think the cold still comes late Nov-early Dec, but it will have the variability theme going through 12/5. It is the 12/5-12/15 period that is cold and it likely snows for us before we break milder again. Toward New Years (in between xmas/new years) the NAO will come back strongly and produce a sustained cold / snowy pattern through most of January. I could see several snow events during that time, including the Mid-Atlantic.

The stratospheric signals like Jan 10-15 but other notable dates are jumping out, too (near New Years and perhaps 2 between jan 20 and feb 5).

Man, I love you and hope the he!! you are right!!!!

at 53, waiting for "next year" gets all the more tenuous

[usedtobe]

here's a bone

18Z NAM at the end of the run

puts the front through BWI/DCA at 78 hrs so that we're at or below freezing at 850

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

still plenty of moisture behind the 850 line at 78 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

81 and 84 panels show precip falling

but surface temps ain't so hot

this is similar setup to last week when I mentioned that the stubborn SE ridge may give us some rain to snow events

hey, it's something to practice fantasizing about!

.

At 81 hrs the surface temp forecast by the nam is 44 degrees so I wouldn't get too excited even if you want to fantasize.

[WVclimo]

'67-'68 was a 40" winter here. The second November snowfall was 8", there was a 9" storm in Dec, a 6" fall that began on 2/29, and a 10" storm two weeks later, in March.

The first half of January was bitterly cold with a low at MRB of -13 twice, on 1/2 and 1/12. That two-week cold wave had an average daily hi/lo of 25/2 with consistent heavy snowcover.

Would love to come close to duplicating that winter.

[mitchnick]

.

At 81 hrs the surface temp forecast by the nam is 44 degrees so I wouldn't get too excited even if you want to fantasize.

yep, which is why I said practice

[Ian]

Big news is we might finally get a freeze at DCA late week.

[usedtobe]

Big news is we might finally get a freeze at DCA late week.

I've already had 3 or 4 nights at freezing or below. Shows how much the river impacts DCA's temps. I've been to 30 twice.

[mdhokie]

So are we really going to see 1-2" of rain Tues/Wed? Don't see much talk of this upcoming system.

[Amped]

10hpa is the 1% of the atmosphere. Can't wait to see what it does to those protesters this year.