mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 a late start to winter is not a bad thing we will see plenty of winter this year imho; I just hope we get some decent snow hits vs. misses like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 a late start to winter is not a bad thing we will see plenty of winter this year imho; I just hope we get some decent snow hits vs. misses like last year A late start to winter around here is January 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 A late start to winter around here is January 1. well, I was just commenting that late starts around here are not necessarily bad late start to me is around Christmas, but what's a week not that it was that great snow-wise around here, 93/94 didn't get cold until Christmas night although 78/79 has 3" of snow Thanksgiving week, winter (snow) was missing in action until mid-late JAN I do believe this year we'll have a pattern change to winter by the first week of DEC and it should be below normal temp-wise in DEC; snow, dunno' personally, a pattern change late NOV/early DEC is good timing for us (winter will remember DEC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Would it be possible to have separate threads for current obs/forecasting and the long/medium-term winter discussions? This thread has taken on a schizophrenic nature, as it keeps switching between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Would it be possible to have separate threads for current obs/forecasting and the long/medium-term winter discussions? This thread has taken on a schizophrenic nature, as it keeps switching between the two. there's a difference between us and clinical schizophrenia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 here are some obs for you Dude, at least State of MD obs http://www.wispresort.com/wisp/info/w.webcam.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 +LF here. Grass is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Would it be possible to have separate threads for current obs/forecasting and the long/medium-term winter discussions? This thread has taken on a schizophrenic nature, as it keeps switching between the two. i think there is a winter thread.. the weenies cant control themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 i think there is a winter thread.. the weenies cant control themselves to be fair, the title of the thread is "NOVEMBER 2011 OBS/FORECASTING DISCUSSION" sooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 to be fair, the title of the thread is "NOVEMBER 2011 OBS/FORECASTING DISCUSSION" sooooo... i would have bolded the november part but that's just me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 there's a difference between us and clinical schizophrenia? Let's not jump to conclusions... i would have bolded the november part but that's just me... Ian for admin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 +LF here. Grass is covered. This. Lost the entire maple in about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 i waited too long to take pics i guess.. but since everyone in the world has a camera now i doubt it's too missed. i may hit the lowlands (rock creek park/the mall area) the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well, the good news about the 12z GFS is the pattern is pretty fluid and we never really warm up significantly. Bad news is the NAO stays near neutral, PNA stays negative to occasionally neutral, SE ridge hangs around (although is definitely not dominant), and no clear sign of a big pattern change. Ensembles seem to be saying "more of the same" with a strongly -PNA, moderate -NAO, and moderate SE ridge for pretty much the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 This. Lost the entire maple in about 5 days. Yea, this is the big final drop day for most trees. Totally cool leaftadoes spinning on my street with some of the big gusts. One more day in the yard in the next week or so and that's all she wrote till April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well, the good news about the 12z GFS is the pattern is pretty fluid and we never really warm up significantly. Bad news is the NAO stays near neutral, PNA stays negative to occasionally neutral, SE ridge hangs around (although is definitely not dominant), and no clear sign of a big pattern change. Ensembles seem to be saying "more of the same" with a strongly -PNA, moderate -NAO, and moderate SE ridge for pretty much the entire run. someone in the NE thread said JB pulled out maps today and was discussing 01/02 how can he expect to maintain his credibility mentioning that year after forecasting a cold winter, with a warm up in FEB? I think he's hugging the CFS for some unknown reason it's simply too early to worry about OCT snows are evil, they will fook up your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Yea, this is the big final drop day for most trees. Totally cool leaftadoes spinning on my street with some of the big gusts. One more day in the yard in the next week or so and that's all she wrote till April. I still have 3 maples hanging on to about half even after today's winds. Still plenty of raking to do, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The wind blew most of the leaves from my front yard into the neighbor's yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 My chinese neighbor blew all her leaves fallen from this Autumn into a big pile yesterday morning by the curb..guess where half of that pile is now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro weeklies can't forecast their way out of a paper bag beyond week one. This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Brrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Brrrrrr Daytime high of 38.4 here in WV with scattered flurries and windchills made it feel very wintery after all the mild weather lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I tell you what ... after reviewing the D8 and 9... It wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of fiddling with that larger scale synopsis and there'd be a hell to pay cold invasion for just about everyone N of an MV-MA line... That's the strongest yet -EPO signature, and then factoring in the old ECMWF "dig the trough too far SW" bias (does that still apply??), and viola... The dailies get smart and a lot of people end up surprised. We'll see. LMAO, at TIP. this is one of the worst looking patterns possibe. All we need if for the troff to come 3,000 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The wind blew most of the leaves from my front yard into the neighbor's yard. Return flow on Sunday. Get the rake ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. He's just trying to make his it's going to get cold at D+10 that he made 7 days ago look less silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Low of the season at my house, but still no freeze. Same at DCA, low of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Freeze at BWI and IAD again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The models continue to show disaster. Warm December start likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Last night at 1AM the temp was 28F under clear, calm skies. Woke up at 6:30 expecting to hit a really cold low, and the temp had already risen to 32F, with a SW wind. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 25.2 was the morning low here. Was below freezing at 8:30 or so last evening. Up to 31 now. Brrr. Bring on those sw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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