WxUSAF Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well, the good news about the 12z GFS is the pattern is pretty fluid and we never really warm up significantly. Bad news is the NAO stays near neutral, PNA stays negative to occasionally neutral, SE ridge hangs around (although is definitely not dominant), and no clear sign of a big pattern change. Ensembles seem to be saying "more of the same" with a strongly -PNA, moderate -NAO, and moderate SE ridge for pretty much the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 This. Lost the entire maple in about 5 days. Yea, this is the big final drop day for most trees. Totally cool leaftadoes spinning on my street with some of the big gusts. One more day in the yard in the next week or so and that's all she wrote till April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well, the good news about the 12z GFS is the pattern is pretty fluid and we never really warm up significantly. Bad news is the NAO stays near neutral, PNA stays negative to occasionally neutral, SE ridge hangs around (although is definitely not dominant), and no clear sign of a big pattern change. Ensembles seem to be saying "more of the same" with a strongly -PNA, moderate -NAO, and moderate SE ridge for pretty much the entire run. someone in the NE thread said JB pulled out maps today and was discussing 01/02 how can he expect to maintain his credibility mentioning that year after forecasting a cold winter, with a warm up in FEB? I think he's hugging the CFS for some unknown reason it's simply too early to worry about OCT snows are evil, they will fook up your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Yea, this is the big final drop day for most trees. Totally cool leaftadoes spinning on my street with some of the big gusts. One more day in the yard in the next week or so and that's all she wrote till April. I still have 3 maples hanging on to about half even after today's winds. Still plenty of raking to do, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The wind blew most of the leaves from my front yard into the neighbor's yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 My chinese neighbor blew all her leaves fallen from this Autumn into a big pile yesterday morning by the curb..guess where half of that pile is now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro weeklies can't forecast their way out of a paper bag beyond week one. This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Brrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Brrrrrr Daytime high of 38.4 here in WV with scattered flurries and windchills made it feel very wintery after all the mild weather lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I tell you what ... after reviewing the D8 and 9... It wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of fiddling with that larger scale synopsis and there'd be a hell to pay cold invasion for just about everyone N of an MV-MA line... That's the strongest yet -EPO signature, and then factoring in the old ECMWF "dig the trough too far SW" bias (does that still apply??), and viola... The dailies get smart and a lot of people end up surprised. We'll see. LMAO, at TIP. this is one of the worst looking patterns possibe. All we need if for the troff to come 3,000 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The wind blew most of the leaves from my front yard into the neighbor's yard. Return flow on Sunday. Get the rake ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. He's just trying to make his it's going to get cold at D+10 that he made 7 days ago look less silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Low of the season at my house, but still no freeze. Same at DCA, low of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Freeze at BWI and IAD again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The models continue to show disaster. Warm December start likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Last night at 1AM the temp was 28F under clear, calm skies. Woke up at 6:30 expecting to hit a really cold low, and the temp had already risen to 32F, with a SW wind. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 25.2 was the morning low here. Was below freezing at 8:30 or so last evening. Up to 31 now. Brrr. Bring on those sw winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. If a regularly-run model didn't have at least some skill, it probably wouldn't be running (especially at the level of something like the Euro). Just because a model has some skill doesn't mean you have to use any of its output. I forecast with the assumption that whatever the weeklies have past week one is probably going to be wrong... it works more often than not. He's just trying to make his it's going to get cold at D+10 that he made 7 days ago look less silly. Verification is objective, and I admit to being wrong. Can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The models continue to show disaster. Warm December start likely? That +AO is killing our chances, need the cold air to move out of the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 No rain here in November and little hope this week.... The switch was flipped October 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading. Moving on to mid-December? Looks like there is no excuse for that unfinished yard work for many-a-moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Moving on to mid-December? Looks like there is no excuse for that unfinished yard work for many-a-moon. I wouldn't yet speculate that far in advance. All I'm saying is through this month, things don't look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The pattern looks pretty bad through the month. A raging EPO, a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast, ugh, The supposed negative nao on the progs is pretty misleading. I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I feel like this cold blast coming next week is pretty impressive. The source region is clearly Siberian and these temps are going to be cold, despite what the MOS says next Thursday-Friday. I wonder if we'll see some flakes before we warm back up. Hey HM havent seen you on here in quite a while, what are your thoughts for the patter change, originally most were thinking later november, now most are thinking mid december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 This is a pretty silly statement. They aren't that great at the end of their run, but they definitely have skill. Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Low of the season at my house, but still no freeze. Same at DCA, low of 33. TALLAHASSEE 22 >DCA 33 just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so. skill and "past d 7" are not words you can believe too much together in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Not that I'm qualified to speak, but I do follow the weekies and have noticed they don't seem to pick out pattern changes well after week2. I don't know if this is fact or incorrect observation on my part, but I cannot ever recall the week3 or week4 progs correctly doing so. Their skill diminishes the further you go out in time like any model, but they have done just fine in the past at that time range....last winter they were very good at identifying the record blocking in December a few weeks out. It certainly doesn't mean they are going to be right this time. But at this point, I don't exactly see a reason that is screaming that they are off their rocker for early December. Hopefully they are wrong about the big positive EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 its time to pull out the old" Thank God this pattern is happening in november and not december" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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