ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Isn't that kind of necessary in a Nina though? I think before a pattern change from warm to cold storms would track to our north at first usually, then later I think disturbances ride up the coast along the stale boundary or swing to our south which would require some SE ridge? I can't recall a pattern flip here in winter starting and ending with snow/mix. Feb 11-12, 2006 (end cold period) Dec 5, 2007 (start cold) Mar 1-2, 2009 (start cold) Those are a few off the top of my head...I know 1/26 last year was in the middle of a cold pattern, so that obviously doesn't qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 1320893678[/url]' post='1108145']Isn't that kind of necessary in a Nina though? I think before a pattern change from warm to cold storms would track to our north at first usually, then later I think disturbances ride up the coast along the stale boundary or swing to our south which would require some SE ridge? I can't recall a pattern flip here in winter starting and ending with snow/mix. The problem is the cold periods often end up being dry and when we finally get a storm it tracks to our north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Forecast through Nov. 20th: Seasonably Warm, Cold Front (Showers), Cold (Dry), Gradual warming... Repeat until patten changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Foggy this morning. KBWI 101054Z 00000KT 1/16SM R10/0800FT FG VV001 11/10 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP127 T01060100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Foggy this morning. KBWI 101054Z 00000KT 1/16SM R10/0800FT FG VV001 11/10 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP127 T01060100 Very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Sunrise is pretty this morning in Gaithersburg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 1/8 - 1/4 mi visibility around Columbia this morning. Leaves haven been pouring off the trees in the last couple days. A maple tree in my neighbors lawn has gone from being 90%+ foliated to about 30% in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Took me an hour to go 20 miles today, fog was pretty thick north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I don't mind delayed starts. Early events usually mix for me anyway. Not to say we won't have something to track in December. I'm pretty sure we will. But I don't need cold in November. How is the MJO doing? On my phone now. I haven't checked. I think it was racing through the early and middle phases a couple weeks ago? Matt, We're in 5 heading for 6. I don't thinnk the mjo signal is quite as robust in fall as it is in winter because of the changinv wavelengths. By the Nov-Jan period, phases 7,8, and 1 are cold in the east and by D-Feb it shifts a little later to phases 8,1,2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Looks like some will see some drops falling in a little bit. A bit breezy out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 It's been raining for a few hours. So damp and chilly outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 GFS breaks down the big high in the GOA early and keeps it away through the run. SE ridge not that strong and fades away. Pretty much progressive and seasonal for us through the lr. Nothing really significant either way with wam/cold. Hopefully the first decent +PNA pops the week after thanksgiving. It would put Dec 5th in play. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i owned the nws on today's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Has HM released his winter forecast yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 if today's front came through in a month or so, we'd have a nice little period of snow I'd betcha' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 if today's front came through in a month or so, we'd have a nice little period of snow I'd betcha' depends on how much it had to do with sean. i doubt the front would have been crawling so slow at least.. and sean probably helped throw some moistuer back over top the cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 depends on how much it had to do with sean. i doubt the front would have been crawling so slow at least.. and sean probably helped throw some moistuer back over top the cold dome. naso' fast NINA = stubborn SE Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 naso' fast NINA = stubborn SE Ridge fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Cold, raw, rainy. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 mod rain, temp in the 40s. So sleepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Its raw outside thats for sha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 here's some good news long term you've all seen the FSU link for snow cover: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ well, if you go down to the 3rd graph down-5 Year Snow Cover and click on the link "35N-55N" right under the year 2009, you get the last 5 year snow cover for the area 35N through 55N looky there....now that's a good trend over the past 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Ground whitening tease snow going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 The 7 day GFS almost gives us something to track!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 it might be time to cancel December at least. The Euro Weeklies are horrible from what i heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 it might be time to cancel December at least. The Euro Weeklies are horrible from what i heard Euro weeklies can't forecast their way out of a paper bag beyond week one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Euro weeklies can't forecast their way out of a paper bag beyond week one. Orh would disagree. He has been defending their performance including nailing the late October blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 it might be time to cancel December at least. The Euro Weeklies are horrible from what i heard You know what this means for the rest of winter if the euro is messing up already, right? Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 36F, windy, and snow showers this morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Orh would disagree. He has been defending their performance including nailing the late October blast The week one forecast (which is actually the 5-11 day forecast) usually does okay/good, but if he tries to argue beyond that, I can tell you right now that the other weeks beyond that can often be (and usually are) way off. Looking at the most recent verification for a week two forecast (12-18 day) from the Euro weeklies, it showed above normal to much above normal temperatures over the western half of the U.S. and Canada and below normal in the eastern half. The verification was just the opposite over the western U.S. and Canada is completely the opposite, though it did mange to get the belows over the eastern U.S. right. So yeah, it got everything wrong except the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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