mitchnick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Riding the DTrain? I honestly haven't followed Dave since the last time he was on the Boards it's just a gut feeling that for whatever reason, other than 76/77, cold always gets delayed in the east longer than ensembles/models think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Anyone traveling on I-695 near the Key Bridge, (or anyone near the water) be advised that visibility has dropped to approx 200 feet due to very dense fog overtaking the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I honestly haven't followed Dave since the last time he was on the Boards it's just a gut feeling that for whatever reason, other than 76/77, cold always gets delayed in the east longer than ensembles/models think That's just how it almost always is with any pattern change during any time of the year. Models tend to rush pattern changes, whether it be from warm to cold or cold to warm. The challenge is figuring out when they finally get the timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 In the last long term PDO cycle there were only 3 serious Ninos in 32 winters....Nina will be dominant for a while probably. Honestly, our best bet is not just to hope for the next niño, but also to hope it doesn't flip the next winter. Neutral years/periods after niño aren't bad....the PAC is usually more helpful and you can get a southern stream.....if we are in a 3 year Nina, I still would bet on an 8-14" storm either this winter or next with the blocking regime we are in and all the big storms lately...maybe both winters? I'd guess the same. We'll get to the median at least during one of the next two years. I'm not that discouraged by the pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Riding the DTrain? Well he was born to forecast. The rest of us just have to struggle because we don't forecast for commodity traders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'd guess the same. We'll get to the median at least during one of the next two years. I'm not that discouraged by the pattern right now. I'm not either but I think my posts imply that I am. I'm just a weenie that hates a delayed start to cold and potential snow. I'm pretty optimistic about a good # of trackable threats and some good cold periods during the winter. Plus, I'm really enjoying spending time outside right now. Nothing better than deep blue skies and comfy temps. Even blowing leaves is a nice way to enjoy the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I really don't know why anyone wants cold right now. Let's just enjoy the weather for a couple of weeks. I'll be thrilled if the cold comes on the weekend after Thanksgiving. All the outdoor chores complete, the belly full, football going strong. That's when winter begins, not after election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looks like a dusting to an inch of snow is possible along the western Apps Friday morning. Could you post a snowfall map for this call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't mind delayed starts. Early events usually mix for me anyway. Not to say we won't have something to track in December. I'm pretty sure we will. But I don't need cold in November. How is the MJO doing? On my phone now. I haven't checked. I think it was racing through the early and middle phases a couple weeks ago? Cruising through phases 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't think we have to worry about that winter, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dec or Jan above normal. Lots of uncertainty, but we aren't seeing a +6 winter lol. I see more of a 1999-2000 winter where we had a good 2 week run and the rest was pure crap. Wxrisk is hyping a major pattern shift again based on 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I see more of a 1999-2000 winter where we had a good 2 week run and the rest was pure crap. Wxrisk is hyping a major pattern shift again based on 12z euro 99-00 pretty much featured a +AO/NAO combo through djf. I don't really see that happening this year. It might but I think the odds are on our side of at least having a -AO for a decent stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 man, this is a nice radar http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/213763-the-richmond-metrohampton-roads-winter-2009-10-discussionobs-thread/page__view__findpost__p__4343665 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 man, this is a nice radar<a href='http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/213763-the-richmond-metrohampton-roads-winter-2009-10-discussionobs-thread/page__view__findpost__p__4343665' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://www.easternus...ost__p__4343665</a> Was supposed to get 4-6" and another 4-6" the next day. I got 13" that night and almost nothing the next day as we got dry-slotted hardcore here in Cent. VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 nice....we should be in the better phases later this month or early December...people should be happy...why do we want a trough in the east on November 9th? absolutely and for those of us stupid/pathetic enough to hold out hope for a 95/96 faux redux like JI and absolutely not me, ENSO this year is a tenth of a degree Celsius warmer than AUG-OCT/95 tri-monthly http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 yes...our average high is 61.....why does anyone want a "good" pattern now? hopefully it's in the 60s all winter.. snow is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i dont mind occasional torches and thaws in the winter....but it does get cold and I want something to track or at least a pattern with potential....it is frustrating when a 7-10 day cold period begins and/or ends with a 47 degree rainstorm, but that it probably in the cards a couple/few times this winter Cold/dry, warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 hopefully it's in the 60s all winter.. snow is cold. I'm diggin the reverse psychology angle ur playin this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i dont mind occasional torches and thaws in the winter....but it does get cold and I want something to track or at least a pattern with potential....it is frustrating when a 7-10 day cold period begins and/or ends with a 47 degree rainstorm, but that it probably in the cards a couple/few times this winter Isn't that kind of necessary in a Nina though? I think before a pattern change from warm to cold storms would track to our north at first usually, then later I think disturbances ride up the coast along the stale boundary or swing to our south which would require some SE ridge? I can't recall a pattern flip here in winter starting and ending with snow/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Isn't that kind of necessary in a Nina though? I think before a pattern change from warm to cold storms would track to our north at first usually, then later I think disturbances ride up the coast along the stale boundary or swing to our south which would require some SE ridge? I can't recall a pattern flip here in winter starting and ending with snow/mix. Feb 11-12, 2006 (end cold period) Dec 5, 2007 (start cold) Mar 1-2, 2009 (start cold) Those are a few off the top of my head...I know 1/26 last year was in the middle of a cold pattern, so that obviously doesn't qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Forecast through Nov. 20th: Seasonably Warm, Cold Front (Showers), Cold (Dry), Gradual warming... Repeat until patten changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Foggy this morning. KBWI 101054Z 00000KT 1/16SM R10/0800FT FG VV001 11/10 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP127 T01060100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Foggy this morning. KBWI 101054Z 00000KT 1/16SM R10/0800FT FG VV001 11/10 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP127 T01060100 Very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Sunrise is pretty this morning in Gaithersburg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 1/8 - 1/4 mi visibility around Columbia this morning. Leaves haven been pouring off the trees in the last couple days. A maple tree in my neighbors lawn has gone from being 90%+ foliated to about 30% in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Took me an hour to go 20 miles today, fog was pretty thick north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I don't mind delayed starts. Early events usually mix for me anyway. Not to say we won't have something to track in December. I'm pretty sure we will. But I don't need cold in November. How is the MJO doing? On my phone now. I haven't checked. I think it was racing through the early and middle phases a couple weeks ago? Matt, We're in 5 heading for 6. I don't thinnk the mjo signal is quite as robust in fall as it is in winter because of the changinv wavelengths. By the Nov-Jan period, phases 7,8, and 1 are cold in the east and by D-Feb it shifts a little later to phases 8,1,2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Looks like some will see some drops falling in a little bit. A bit breezy out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 It's been raining for a few hours. So damp and chilly outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 GFS breaks down the big high in the GOA early and keeps it away through the run. SE ridge not that strong and fades away. Pretty much progressive and seasonal for us through the lr. Nothing really significant either way with wam/cold. Hopefully the first decent +PNA pops the week after thanksgiving. It would put Dec 5th in play. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i owned the nws on today's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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