WxUSAF Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 the rubber band will snap, but probably closer to 12/1 than the original target of most around 11/15 Riding the DTrain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Well the ECMWF EPS Control model has a fantasy blizzard on Nov 22/23 for the NE (NY and points north), will that make JI happy? The ENS GFS shows a little weak low off the coast of Boston at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong. Doesn't Ji's winter start when the first thread is posted about the upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Well the ECMWF EPS Control model has a fantasy blizzard on Nov 22/23 for the NE (NY and points north), will that make JI happy? The ENS GFS shows a little weak low off the coast of Boston at the same time frame. Quite the opposite. Just jump into the next MA tracking thread and read Ji's posts once the models flip to a DC skip and NE hit. Winter is too much fun around here for a lot of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looks like a dusting to an inch of snow is possible along the western Apps Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Over the last 20 years november has warmed more than any other month. If you compare the most recent decade (2001-2010) in DC with the earliest decade for which there are official records (1871-1880), November has warmed 7.1 degrees, which easily makes it number one. September is second with a 5.1 degree warm-up, May is eleventh with a 1.2 degree warm-up, and July is last with only a 0.9 degree warm-up. On the other hand, if you look at the most recent 30-year period (1981-2010) and compare that with the oldest 30-year period (1871-1900), March is number one with a 5.3 degree warm-up, November is second with a 4.7 degree warm-up, June is eleventh with a 2.2 degree warm-up, and May is last with a 1.9 degree warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Riding the DTrain? I honestly haven't followed Dave since the last time he was on the Boards it's just a gut feeling that for whatever reason, other than 76/77, cold always gets delayed in the east longer than ensembles/models think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Anyone traveling on I-695 near the Key Bridge, (or anyone near the water) be advised that visibility has dropped to approx 200 feet due to very dense fog overtaking the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I honestly haven't followed Dave since the last time he was on the Boards it's just a gut feeling that for whatever reason, other than 76/77, cold always gets delayed in the east longer than ensembles/models think That's just how it almost always is with any pattern change during any time of the year. Models tend to rush pattern changes, whether it be from warm to cold or cold to warm. The challenge is figuring out when they finally get the timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 In the last long term PDO cycle there were only 3 serious Ninos in 32 winters....Nina will be dominant for a while probably. Honestly, our best bet is not just to hope for the next niño, but also to hope it doesn't flip the next winter. Neutral years/periods after niño aren't bad....the PAC is usually more helpful and you can get a southern stream.....if we are in a 3 year Nina, I still would bet on an 8-14" storm either this winter or next with the blocking regime we are in and all the big storms lately...maybe both winters? I'd guess the same. We'll get to the median at least during one of the next two years. I'm not that discouraged by the pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Riding the DTrain? Well he was born to forecast. The rest of us just have to struggle because we don't forecast for commodity traders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'd guess the same. We'll get to the median at least during one of the next two years. I'm not that discouraged by the pattern right now. I'm not either but I think my posts imply that I am. I'm just a weenie that hates a delayed start to cold and potential snow. I'm pretty optimistic about a good # of trackable threats and some good cold periods during the winter. Plus, I'm really enjoying spending time outside right now. Nothing better than deep blue skies and comfy temps. Even blowing leaves is a nice way to enjoy the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I really don't know why anyone wants cold right now. Let's just enjoy the weather for a couple of weeks. I'll be thrilled if the cold comes on the weekend after Thanksgiving. All the outdoor chores complete, the belly full, football going strong. That's when winter begins, not after election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Looks like a dusting to an inch of snow is possible along the western Apps Friday morning. Could you post a snowfall map for this call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I'd guess the same. We'll get to the median at least during one of the next two years. I'm not that discouraged by the pattern right now. I don't mind delayed starts. Early events usually mix for me anyway. Not to say we won't have something to track in December. I'm pretty sure we will. But I don't need cold in November. How is the MJO doing? On my phone now. I haven't checked. I think it was racing through the early and middle phases a couple weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 This is the worst winter since 01-02 I don't think we have to worry about that winter, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dec or Jan above normal. Lots of uncertainty, but we aren't seeing a +6 winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't mind delayed starts. Early events usually mix for me anyway. Not to say we won't have something to track in December. I'm pretty sure we will. But I don't need cold in November. How is the MJO doing? On my phone now. I haven't checked. I think it was racing through the early and middle phases a couple weeks ago? Cruising through phases 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't think we have to worry about that winter, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Dec or Jan above normal. Lots of uncertainty, but we aren't seeing a +6 winter lol. I see more of a 1999-2000 winter where we had a good 2 week run and the rest was pure crap. Wxrisk is hyping a major pattern shift again based on 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I see more of a 1999-2000 winter where we had a good 2 week run and the rest was pure crap. Wxrisk is hyping a major pattern shift again based on 12z euro 99-00 pretty much featured a +AO/NAO combo through djf. I don't really see that happening this year. It might but I think the odds are on our side of at least having a -AO for a decent stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 man, this is a nice radar http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/213763-the-richmond-metrohampton-roads-winter-2009-10-discussionobs-thread/page__view__findpost__p__4343665 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I see more of a 1999-2000 winter where we had a good 2 week run and the rest was pure crap. Wxrisk is hyping a major pattern shift again based on 12z euro maybe similar in that we have a good period, but otherwise i dont see many similarities....that was one of the warmest US winters on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Cruising through phases 4-5 nice....we should be in the better phases later this month or early December...people should be happy...why do we want a trough in the east on November 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I really don't know why anyone wants cold right now. Let's just enjoy the weather for a couple of weeks. I'll be thrilled if the cold comes on the weekend after Thanksgiving. All the outdoor chores complete, the belly full, football going strong. That's when winter begins, not after election day. yes...our average high is 61.....why does anyone want a "good" pattern now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 man, this is a nice radar<a href='http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/213763-the-richmond-metrohampton-roads-winter-2009-10-discussionobs-thread/page__view__findpost__p__4343665' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://www.easternus...ost__p__4343665</a> Was supposed to get 4-6" and another 4-6" the next day. I got 13" that night and almost nothing the next day as we got dry-slotted hardcore here in Cent. VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 nice....we should be in the better phases later this month or early December...people should be happy...why do we want a trough in the east on November 9th? absolutely and for those of us stupid/pathetic enough to hold out hope for a 95/96 faux redux like JI and absolutely not me, ENSO this year is a tenth of a degree Celsius warmer than AUG-OCT/95 tri-monthly http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 yes...our average high is 61.....why does anyone want a "good" pattern now? hopefully it's in the 60s all winter.. snow is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 hopefully it's in the 60s all winter.. snow is cold. i dont mind occasional torches and thaws in the winter....but it does get cold and I want something to track or at least a pattern with potential....it is frustrating when a 7-10 day cold period begins and/or ends with a 47 degree rainstorm, but that it probably in the cards a couple/few times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i dont mind occasional torches and thaws in the winter....but it does get cold and I want something to track or at least a pattern with potential....it is frustrating when a 7-10 day cold period begins and/or ends with a 47 degree rainstorm, but that it probably in the cards a couple/few times this winter Cold/dry, warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 hopefully it's in the 60s all winter.. snow is cold. I'm diggin the reverse psychology angle ur playin this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 i dont mind occasional torches and thaws in the winter....but it does get cold and I want something to track or at least a pattern with potential....it is frustrating when a 7-10 day cold period begins and/or ends with a 47 degree rainstorm, but that it probably in the cards a couple/few times this winter Isn't that kind of necessary in a Nina though? I think before a pattern change from warm to cold storms would track to our north at first usually, then later I think disturbances ride up the coast along the stale boundary or swing to our south which would require some SE ridge? I can't recall a pattern flip here in winter starting and ending with snow/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.