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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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Monthly climo numbers through yesterday. They should be pretty close to the final since we don't expect any precip today and temps will probably end up near climo.

DCA: +2.9F, -1.12"

BWI:+4.2F, -0.73"

IAD: +2.7F, -1.11"

RIC: +3.1F, +1.05"

So much for my idea of ending up within 1F of normal by month's end :arrowhead: . The last 10 days just torched with double digit positive anomalies and consistently overperformed the models by a few degrees.

Have we set a record yet for the number of times Ji has cancelled winter...before it's even begun???:whistle:

Seriously though...the temperature departures aren't that surprising. But I never realized the DC area was that dry in terms of precipitation. I guess after all the rain through much of the fall, that got kind of lost in the shuffle.

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November monthlies IMBY:

Highs / departure: 58.3 / +3.3

Lows / departure: 36.9 / +1.1

Precip / departure: 5.48 / +2.53

Summary: warm & wet. This is the 3rd consecutive month with significant positive precip departures (+6.61" during this 3-month period). Interestingly, all but .01" of rain fell from the 15th to the end of the month. Amusingly, we were talking of a record dry November in the early/mid part of the month. Boy, did that turn out to be wrong. Hopefully, likewise, all this talk of a mild winter we are hearing now will turn out wrong also. Saw two rounds of snow-showers: the morning of the 11th and the evening of the 17th. Max high of 68F on Nov. 8th and Nov. 27th. Minimum temp of 22F on Nov. 6th.

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