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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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I was thinking this morning that the early season snowfall we had has given an overall "mood" that would not normally be present on this calendar date. I would venture that normally on Nov. 30, we wouldn't be too upset about a warmish pattern. Granted, if this were Dec. 30, it would be a different story, but I think that early snow threw us a bit out of a "normal" mindset.

Oh, BTW, someone start a new thread tonight so that we can remove this "hex" we have on us. :P

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The folks in new England are depressed about the pattern...does note bode well for us

they were depressed in 09/10 when they all hit average (and most were above average) snowfall simply because we were getting jackpoted (not all in the NE thread, but the usual suspects)

why do you care? they live in a different world climo-wise and, at least at this point, their biatching now is probably equivalent to our biatching if we were faced with the current pattern in early JAN (and we would all be biatching)

anyway, you were whining in mid-JAN 2010 about the winter; I seriously doubt they were worried about your complaining then

we'll get snow of consequence in JAN/FEB if we miss it in DEC so get over it and start practicing your scale modes on the guitar!

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The final precipitation totals (in inches) for each of those months were as follows:

November 2005: 1.92

November 2001: 0.55

November 1964: 1.42

November 1931: 1.01

November 1918: 1.48

November 1917: 0.53

November 1878: 3.03

November 1874: 2.08

Average, 8 years: 1.50

So, the average of those eight years is very similar to what would be expected based on multiplying 16 (the number of days remaining in November) by the average of .093 inches of precipitation per day that has occurred in DC in November during 1871-2010. Let's see how close we come to that average this year.

And the answer is that we exceeded the 1.50 inch average by 0.44 inch.

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Monthly climo numbers through yesterday. They should be pretty close to the final since we don't expect any precip today and temps will probably end up near climo.

DCA: +2.9F, -1.12"

BWI:+4.2F, -0.73"

IAD: +2.7F, -1.11"

RIC: +3.1F, +1.05"

So much for my idea of ending up within 1F of normal by month's end :arrowhead: . The last 10 days just torched with double digit positive anomalies and consistently overperformed the models by a few degrees.

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Monthly climo numbers through yesterday. They should be pretty close to the final since we don't expect any precip today and temps will probably end up near climo.

DCA: +2.9F, -1.12"

BWI:+4.2F, -0.73"

IAD: +2.7F, -1.11"

RIC: +3.1F, +1.05"

So much for my idea of ending up within 1F of normal by month's end :arrowhead: . The last 10 days just torched with double digit positive anomalies and consistently overperformed the models by a few degrees.

Have we set a record yet for the number of times Ji has cancelled winter...before it's even begun???:whistle:

Seriously though...the temperature departures aren't that surprising. But I never realized the DC area was that dry in terms of precipitation. I guess after all the rain through much of the fall, that got kind of lost in the shuffle.

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November monthlies IMBY:

Highs / departure: 58.3 / +3.3

Lows / departure: 36.9 / +1.1

Precip / departure: 5.48 / +2.53

Summary: warm & wet. This is the 3rd consecutive month with significant positive precip departures (+6.61" during this 3-month period). Interestingly, all but .01" of rain fell from the 15th to the end of the month. Amusingly, we were talking of a record dry November in the early/mid part of the month. Boy, did that turn out to be wrong. Hopefully, likewise, all this talk of a mild winter we are hearing now will turn out wrong also. Saw two rounds of snow-showers: the morning of the 11th and the evening of the 17th. Max high of 68F on Nov. 8th and Nov. 27th. Minimum temp of 22F on Nov. 6th.

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