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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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Just wanted to say that I really enjoy your posts.

Thanks. As you probably realize by now, I'm a stats geek, as opposed to a forecasting geek. I enjoy looking at statistical anomalies, and I'm genuinely puzzled as to why there was so much more March snow than December snow in the early days in DC, despite the much colder December temperatures. March was a wetter month than December during 1888-1917 (average 3.62 inches vs. 3.20 inches of precipitation), but that's basically the same differential as during 1981-2010 (average 3.48 inches vs. 3.05 inches). Perhaps it was a combination of factors, including the luck of the draw, but it would be interesting to look at other areas in that time frame to see whether March was also significantly snowier than December.

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Very windy last night with the frontal passage around 2AM...another 0.49" fell for a total of 1.06" with this system. The ground is squishy. November is now my second wettest month this year at 6.55" after being dry the first half. Temperature quickly rose to 62 right before the front passage. May see some snow flakes late tonight and tomorrow morning.

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Random stat:

DCA has hit 60° for 10 consecutive days. The only times that this has happened in the second half of November previously was in 1931 and 1979. Both of those periods were more impressive, though, with a majority of each streak in the 70s.

I'm bummed I missed most of it. Cold winds for my arrival this eve.

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Yes I know it's in fantasy land, but we don't have much else to track...GFS has a very interesting setup 276-312hr. Big shortwave digs and partially phases with southern stream energy and pops a coastal. Of course it's a total fish storm, but the setup is pretty good.

Big north Atlantic ridge (despite the + or neutral NAO) keeps the SE ridge at bay this run. Brakes down the PNA at the end of the run, but is otherwise a pretty cold run (especially compared to what we've been having).

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Yes I know it's in fantasy land, but we don't have much else to track...GFS has a very interesting setup 276-312hr. Big shortwave digs and partially phases with southern stream energy and pops a coastal. Of course it's a total fish storm, but the setup is pretty good.

Big north Atlantic ridge (despite the + or neutral NAO) keeps the SE ridge at bay this run. Brakes down the PNA at the end of the run, but is otherwise a pretty cold run (especially compared to what we've been having).

Well, it certainly is looking more and more like the temps will return to at least seasonal, perhaps below here and there. It may not be tracking snow events, but its a step in the right direction. Now if we could actually rely upon the models past a few days.

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Random stat:

DCA has hit 60° for 10 consecutive days. The only times that this has happened in the second half of November previously was in 1931 and 1979. Both of those periods were more impressive, though, with a majority of each streak in the 70s.

Thanks -- you have a terrific database. :thumbsup: I note that the 1931-32 meteorological winter (D,J,F) in DC was the warmest of all time, with an average temperature of 44.6 degrees and a whopping one inch of snow. However, March 1932 averaged only 40.0 degrees, making it the 19th coldest March of all time and the coldest month of the season, and 4 inches of snow fell. The 1979-80 meteorological winter was also relatively warm in DC, at 39.0 degrees (32nd warmest), but with 13.7 inches of snow. March 1980 continued slightly warmer than average, at 46.2 degrees (57th warmest), but DCA still recorded 6.1 inches of snow. It's also interesting to note that 1979 was the last time that snow fell in October in the DC area prior to this year, with 0.3 inches recorded at DCA and 1.3 inches at IAD.

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Yes I know it's in fantasy land, but we don't have much else to track...GFS has a very interesting setup 276-312hr. Big shortwave digs and partially phases with southern stream energy and pops a coastal. Of course it's a total fish storm, but the setup is pretty good.

Big north Atlantic ridge (despite the + or neutral NAO) keeps the SE ridge at bay this run. Brakes down the PNA at the end of the run, but is otherwise a pretty cold run (especially compared to what we've been having).

Trouble is the ensemble mean doesn't much like the idea and keeps slightly above normal heights over the southeast in that time frame. It doesn't seem to like the gfs.

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