November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is it really that bad though? We only have about a 12 week shot around here. I never count March in the snow season. It's nice to get March snow and all but it rarely sticks around for long and rarely happens.

Out of the 12 week window we never have a full 12 weeks of favorable pattern anyway. If we're gonna throw 3 weeks down the toilet, it's better to take it on the chin at the beginning.

If things look like crap a month from now then I'm joining Ji.

They only bad part of that philosophy is that when you throw out December weeks and replace them with late Feb weeks, you throw out the lowest sun angle of the year and replace it with a sun angle more in line with mid-late October. I don't know about anyone else, but when it does actually snow, I like to see it last a day or two. Those snows where it snows overnight into about 9 in the morning, and then it is all mostly gone by sunset suck in my book. If that's all we can muster out of this winter, then I hope it stays just like it is.

[aldie 22]

I'm looking forward to the cooler weather later this week....I enjoyed being outside getting up all of the leaves and putting up the lights in the warmer weather but as the calendar turns to December I want more seasonable air at least.

[BethesdaWX]

I don't think I'd put any faith in it even if everything looked great. I have zero confidence in any model solution beyond about 5 days. They may be somewhat skilled at predicting a general pattern of weather, but they don't seem too good to me at predicting "real" weather at that time frame.

He had mentioned he thought that there might be something interesting at that time frame. That's really the only reason that I even posted that.

The large-scale pattern pretty much blows at this point but I'm putting my already sh*tty reputation on the line this time. On a daily basis, I love to observe the pattern in satellite imagery (UAH) and am always exploring and observing tendancies often to no applicable avail as chaos seems to be prevolent. But without getting into any true detail, there is a dispersion of energy that will involve itself in progression after coming down the Rockies while the synoptic flow to the north remains quite potent with the +NAO.

Regarding the Rockies trough, recall what happened a month ago in late October, the trough into the intermountain west, +NAO then as well though there were shorter wavelengths and a different MJO phase, but truly the wavelength difference actually results in a similar profression now even with the MJO in a different octant, great coincidence but still the energy won't be traverse in the same manner aside from the resemblance in the general picture.

I'm a bit worried the energy appendage to the north may result in an early phase and a cut to the west, but in My Mind, there is a 70% our CWA recieves winter precipitation with this one. If this turns out a dud, I'm pretty much screwed but I feel confident in this one.

[RodneyS]

I never count March in the snow season. It's nice to get March snow and all but it rarely sticks around for long and rarely happens.

An interesting historical note is that in the good old days in DC, March was a snowier month than December. During the 30-year period 1888-1917 (official snow records for DC began in 1884, but for some reason snow totals are unavailable for December 1886 and December 1887), March averaged 5.0 inches versus 3.7 inches in December.

[Ji]

the problem is I dont see anything that is going to dislodge the pattern....what is going to make the NAO go negative?

[Bob Chill]

An interesting historical note is that in the good old days in DC, March was a snowier month than December. During the 30-year period 1888-1917 (official snow records for DC began in 1884, but for some reason snow totals are unavailable for December 1886 and December 1887), March averaged 5.0 inches versus 3.7 inches in December.

That is odd and I have pondered it a bit in the past. Why would March change? Is it indicative of a changing climate or just plain luck (or unluck)?

The one thing that points towards a changing climate is that folks up north still get good snows in March so it's not like it snows less on the EC during March. Just not as often further south than it used to.

[aldie 22]

the problem is I dont see anything that is going to dislodge the pattern....what is going to make the NAO go negative?

This feels like another one of those years where Southern Texas gets a white christmas while we are in the 50's.....oh well

[aldie 22]

That is odd and I have pondered it a bit in the past. Why would March change? Is it indicative of a changing climate or just plain luck (or unluck)?

The one thing that points towards a changing climate is that folks up north still get good snows in March so it's not like it snows less on the EC during March. Just not as often further south than it used to.

People up North are complaining about how March sucks for them now too....even still down here we are talking about what...3" in December and 4" in March as an average in years past???

[mappy]

um, there is a winter banter thread?

[WxUSAF]

The large-scale pattern pretty much blows at this point but I'm putting my already sh*tty reputation on the line this time. On a daily basis, I love to observe the pattern in satellite imagery (UAH) and am always exploring and observing tendancies often to no applicable avail as chaos seems to be prevolent. But without getting into any true detail, there is a dispersion of energy that will involve itself in progression after coming down the Rockies while the synoptic flow to the north remains quite potent with the +NAO.

Regarding the Rockies trough, recall what happened a month ago in late October, the trough into the intermountain west, +NAO then as well though there were shorter wavelengths and a different MJO phase, but truly the wavelength difference actually results in a similar profression now even with the MJO in a different octant, great coincidence but still the energy won't be traverse in the same manner aside from the resemblance in the general picture.

I'm a bit worried the energy appendage to the north may result in an early phase and a cut to the west, but in My Mind, there is a 70% our CWA recieves winter precipitation with this one. If this turns out a dud, I'm pretty much screwed but I feel confident in this one.

Are you talking about the potential storm around the 7th? The only shot for us is an anafront situation since that cold front looks potentially pretty strong. I wouldn't hold your breath on that, although folks farther north could get into that as well as the upslope areas of the Apps.

Also...can folks remember that although a -NAO is often key to getting sustained cold and/or snowstorms in our area, it is NOT the only way to do it.

Also...these last 3-4 warm days have overperformed each day by a few degrees. So much for my idea a couple weeks ago that November would end up within 1F of normal.

[BethesdaWX]

Are you talking about the potential storm around the 7th? The only shot for us is an anafront situation since that cold front looks potentially pretty strong. I wouldn't hold your breath on that, although folks farther north could get into that as well as the upslope areas of the Apps.

Also...can folks remember that although a -NAO is often key to getting sustained cold and/or snowstorms in our area, it is NOT the only way to do it.

Also...these last 3-4 warm days have overperformed each day by a few degrees. So much for my idea a couple weeks ago that November would end up within 1F of normal.

Yes, but I wasn't taking the GFS or any model verbatim, if I remember correctly the GFS loves the "cold front" look near its reso change? Seems these scenarios always mold into something more dynamic as we get closer.

If the system phases early and explodes out west that'd really suck.....but just going by the trends this autumn, and correct me if I'm wrong, the GFS seems to have constantly overdone the cold intrusions into the US lattitude wise? Assuming the usual is the case perhaps there is no phasing and we get a bowling ball low traversing the deep south? Thats what I think should happen, or a secondary developing on the front if the primary cuts west.

[RodneyS]

People up North are complaining about how March sucks for them now too....even still down here we are talking about what...3" in December and 4" in March as an average in years past???

The overall averages for all years in which official monthly snow totals are available in DC, 1884-2010 (127 Marchs and 125 Decembers) are 2.9 inches in March and 3.0 inches in December. The thing I find puzzling about March/December snow totals during 1888-1917 is that, like now, temperatures were much warmer in March than in December. Specifically, March 1888-1917 averaged 43.0 degrees versus 36.2 in December. For the most recent 30 years, 1981-2010, March averaged 46.9 versus 39.8 in December. So, since those old days, March has warmed slightly more than December (3.9 degrees versus 3.6 degrees), but that difference is pretty minor. I think the answer to our relative lack of March snow nowadays is that it is generally too warm to snow then, but I'm unclear as to why March snow exceeded December snow during 1888-1917.

[WinterWxLuvr]

um, there is a winter banter thread?

Seriously?

You're a day late and a dollar short with that one. This is one of the worst threads we've had in a while.

Let it burn in flames and hope the December thread is better.

[WxUSAF]

12z GFS roulette still likes the big cold front on the 6th/7th idea and the ensembles seem to agree. Possibly an anafrontal situation as the Op has a wave ride up the cold front, but still probably little/no precip once the column gets cold enough for snow. Both the ensemble mean and Op break down the PNA ridge (have basically flat contours) at the end of the run, but they do still have some ridging out over the Pacific.

[WxUSAF]

This is one of the worst threads we've had in a while.

Haterz gon' hate.

[mappy]

Seriously?

You're a day late and a dollar short with that one. This is one of the worst threads we've had in a while.

Let it burn in flames and hope the December thread is better.

ok

[Bob Chill]

12z GFS roulette still likes the big cold front on the 6th/7th idea and the ensembles seem to agree. Possibly an anafrontal situation as the Op has a wave ride up the cold front, but still probably little/no precip once the column gets cold enough for snow. Both the ensemble mean and Op break down the PNA ridge (have basically flat contours) at the end of the run, but they do still have some ridging out over the Pacific.

I thought the entire gfs run kinda stinks. LP after lp just parked over AK. Same pattern over and over. How long can it last? A crappy pac for 2 straight months? I don't count the upcoming +pna as a pattern change or anything decent at all.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

That is odd and I have pondered it a bit in the past. Why would March change? Is it indicative of a changing climate or just plain luck (or unluck)?

The one thing that points towards a changing climate is that folks up north still get good snows in March so it's not like it snows less on the EC during March. Just not as often further south than it used to.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season_creep

[WxUSAF]

I thought the entire gfs run kinda stinks. LP after lp just parked over AK. Same pattern over and over. How long can it last? A crappy pac for 2 straight months? I don't count the upcoming +pna as a pattern change or anything decent at all.

Yeah, it's not great, but better than it's been. Probably seasonable temps when all averaged out. Certainly no significant shots at snow. The pattern is evolving, just slowly. Perhaps after mid-month when the MJO cycles to something more favorable we can look for a sustained wintry pattern.

Just looking at the Euro 500 chart for the northern hemisphere you can see how much has changed/will change by Days 8-10. That former super ridge over Scandanavia is now a trough. Nice ridge east of the Caspian (JB's old Cahirs connection), trough near Kamchatka. Those are all pretty good teleconnectors to an east coast trough, I believe. Euro also looks be brewing a monster Lakes/Apps runner on Day 10. AO and NAO are both ragingly positive still, however.

[Bob Chill]

Euro also looks be brewing a monster Lakes/Apps runner on Day 10.

We probably need something like that to get the ec trough to set up (of course this assumes that the nao doesn't remain raging positive after the lp heads north into canada).

It would be nice to see a semi-stationary lp spinning around n of the great lakes. It would lift our spirits even if it only means cold sunny days.

[Kmlwx]

Yeah, it's not great, but better than it's been. Probably seasonable temps when all averaged out. Certainly no significant shots at snow. The pattern is evolving, just slowly. Perhaps after mid-month when the MJO cycles to something more favorable we can look for a sustained wintry pattern.

Just looking at the Euro 500 chart for the northern hemisphere you can see how much has changed/will change by Days 8-10. That former super ridge over Scandanavia is now a trough. Nice ridge east of the Caspian (JB's old Cahirs connection), trough near Kamchatka. Those are all pretty good teleconnectors to an east coast trough, I believe. Euro also looks be brewing a monster Lakes/Apps runner on Day 10. AO and NAO are both ragingly positive still, however.

I guess it's good to get these terrible factors right now rather than having them shift to terrible as winter is starting. I'm still pretty hopeful that given how bad the pattern is now it may be more favorable come later in winter. That's an uneducated guess though lol

[das]

the problem is I dont see anything that is going to dislodge the pattern....what is going to make the NAO go negative?

SSW. Strat sure is cold right now though.

[das]

The overall averages for all years in which official monthly snow totals are available in DC, 1884-2010 (127 Marchs and 125 Decembers) are 2.9 inches in March and 3.0 inches in December. The thing I find puzzling about March/December snow totals during 1888-1917 is that, like now, temperatures were much warmer in March than in December. Specifically, March 1888-1917 averaged 43.0 degrees versus 36.2 in December. For the most recent 30 years, 1981-2010, March averaged 46.9 versus 39.8 in December. So, since those old days, March has warmed slightly more than December (3.9 degrees versus 3.6 degrees), but that difference is pretty minor. I think the answer to our relative lack of March snow nowadays is that it is generally too warm to snow then, but I'm unclear as to why March snow exceeded December snow during 1888-1917.

Just wanted to say that I really enjoy your posts.

[mattie g]

Just wanted to say that I really enjoy your posts.

RodneyS[tatman]

Edit: I like the stats, too.

[Bob Chill]

+1 here for RodneyS. Keep on posting that stuff.

I'm a stat head myself. My wife calls me the walking quantifier because I have to run #'s on just about everything. I even calculate mpg on a calculator for every single fillup (i do this for non-compulsive reasons. a sudden dropoff in mpg is the first sign of trouble with the motor. even before anything sounds or feels weird).

[Avdave]

This feels like another one of those years where Southern Texas gets a white christmas while we are in the 50's.....oh well

Sweet Ill be in TX for Christmas.

This winter is going to be a 08-09 repeat, I have a feeling. I am along the same lines as Wes here. Pattern looks terrible and in reality, we shouldnt expect snow until late Dec. It is what it is, nothing we all can do about it

[WVclimo]

Sweet Ill be in TX for Christmas.

This winter is going to be a 08-09 repeat, I have a feeling. I am along the same lines as Wes here. Pattern looks terrible and in reality, we shouldnt expect snow until late Dec. It is what it is, nothing we all can do about it

I got my first snow on 1/10/2009. Had a few weeks of cold after that including some below-zero weather. Missed 3/1/09. 5" snow for the season.

I think (hope) this winter has a bit more than that to offer. At least if we can get normal precip, we could cash in a couple more times than 08-09. Even if its ice/mix more often.

[Avdave]

Todays highs

IAD 70*, 1 degree short of the record of 71 set in 1998

DCA 71*, 3 degrees short of the record 74 in 1973

BWI 69*, 4 degrees short of the record 73 in 1990

MRB 68*, 7 degrees short of the record 75 in 1998

[Ian]

I hope it's like this all winter

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sweet Ill be in TX for Christmas.

This winter is going to be a 08-09 repeat, I have a feeling. I am along the same lines as Wes here. Pattern looks terrible and in reality, we shouldnt expect snow until late Dec. It is what it is, nothing we all can do about it

I don't see the similarities at this point. That Nov. turned cold about halfway through, IIRC. And even though December had basically no snow, I don't remember it being very warm.