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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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Sweet Ill be in TX for Christmas.

This winter is going to be a 08-09 repeat, I have a feeling. I am along the same lines as Wes here. Pattern looks terrible and in reality, we shouldnt expect snow until late Dec. It is what it is, nothing we all can do about it

I got my first snow on 1/10/2009. Had a few weeks of cold after that including some below-zero weather. Missed 3/1/09. 5" snow for the season.

I think (hope) this winter has a bit more than that to offer. At least if we can get normal precip, we could cash in a couple more times than 08-09. Even if its ice/mix more often.

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Sweet Ill be in TX for Christmas.

This winter is going to be a 08-09 repeat, I have a feeling. I am along the same lines as Wes here. Pattern looks terrible and in reality, we shouldnt expect snow until late Dec. It is what it is, nothing we all can do about it

I don't see the similarities at this point. That Nov. turned cold about halfway through, IIRC. And even though December had basically no snow, I don't remember it being very warm.

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Just wanted to say that I really enjoy your posts.

Thanks. As you probably realize by now, I'm a stats geek, as opposed to a forecasting geek. I enjoy looking at statistical anomalies, and I'm genuinely puzzled as to why there was so much more March snow than December snow in the early days in DC, despite the much colder December temperatures. March was a wetter month than December during 1888-1917 (average 3.62 inches vs. 3.20 inches of precipitation), but that's basically the same differential as during 1981-2010 (average 3.48 inches vs. 3.05 inches). Perhaps it was a combination of factors, including the luck of the draw, but it would be interesting to look at other areas in that time frame to see whether March was also significantly snowier than December.

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Very windy last night with the frontal passage around 2AM...another 0.49" fell for a total of 1.06" with this system. The ground is squishy. November is now my second wettest month this year at 6.55" after being dry the first half. Temperature quickly rose to 62 right before the front passage. May see some snow flakes late tonight and tomorrow morning.

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Random stat:

DCA has hit 60° for 10 consecutive days. The only times that this has happened in the second half of November previously was in 1931 and 1979. Both of those periods were more impressive, though, with a majority of each streak in the 70s.

I'm bummed I missed most of it. Cold winds for my arrival this eve.

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Yes I know it's in fantasy land, but we don't have much else to track...GFS has a very interesting setup 276-312hr. Big shortwave digs and partially phases with southern stream energy and pops a coastal. Of course it's a total fish storm, but the setup is pretty good.

Big north Atlantic ridge (despite the + or neutral NAO) keeps the SE ridge at bay this run. Brakes down the PNA at the end of the run, but is otherwise a pretty cold run (especially compared to what we've been having).

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