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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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Hey I just moved down into Carroll County, MD. Is this the ''official'' obs thread for the DC/Baltimore area?

Welcome to the land of the winter tease and disappointment!

You will likely fare much better than others in our area. Westminster is a sweetspot for snowtotals.

Yes, this is the place for your obs. Enjoy!

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6z GFS op looks pretty cold FWIW. Overnight GFS ensembles (0z and 6z) are seasonal for most of the run and Euro and it's ensembles actually look a bit colder than that.

the PAC gets much better looking on the Euro.....it is probably transient cold, but we get a trough in the east toward the end of the run....no blocking....probably cold and dry....but perhaps it is a step in the right direction

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I don't understand how the 6z GFS is so cold given what it's printing out signal wise, strong +AO/+NAO, the +PNA is there but the MJO would be crappy at that time in octants 4 and 5, quite potent too. Disconnect in forcing somewhere?

Meanwhile 62 beautiful degrees with a refreshing wind partially off the water, outside air smells very nice :D

Few of the sunset here in Loudoun Co on Saturday night

Thats crazy nice man

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....no blocking....probably cold and dry....but perhaps it is a step in the right direction

Agree on all 3 parts. Definitely no signs of putting moisture into the mix when we get a cold shot. 240hr frame of the Euro op looks like a clipper is ready to drop into the northern plains with another reinforcing cold shot of air, but seems like it would probably take it north of us. Still, I'll take seasonable temps for now and we can worry about moisture when the pattern gets established.

Today is another beautiful day though.

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The end of the 1st week in December intrigues me a bit. Aside from the GFS and Euro both progging southern stream energy down southwest or Some Form of it for a few days now, it's my personal interpretation of the atmospheric progression that leads me to believe there should be a weakness near us during that time, and in a favorable trajectory in giving us a shot at accumulating snowfall. It's a week out but I think we have a good chance at a wintry event within the next 10 days.

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