Ji Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Terrible next few weeks ahead but good thing it's November and who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 At least the euro and gfs agree agree right now. Looks like some great outdoor weather for the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 At least the euro and gfs agree agree right now. Looks like some great outdoor weather for the next couple of weeks. Love it. We can still get some really nice weather this time of year, so there's no reason not to enjoy every minute of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Love it. We can still get some really nice weather this time of year, so there's no reason not to enjoy every minute of it. Yes sir! Average highs are still in the low 60's. We've been cooler than avg for a while so 60's feel warm. EC ridge looking pretty strong coming in in the next couple of weeks. We may have a few days in the low 70's. I'm an avid disc golf player so this kind of weather late in the season is awesome. I'm playing a big course later today and love the cool fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Keeping tabs on that coastal system that the models want to put in play on Friday... not thinking snowmaker at the moment, but there is some potential... For DC 18z Friday: Hagerstown 12z Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I took a look at the GFS earlier and was wondering about that, Ellinwood. Seems like the vort is in a nearly perfect place, just no cold to go along with it. Good to see the vorts continuing to dig though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I took a look at the GFS earlier and was wondering about that, Ellinwood. Seems like the vort is in a nearly perfect place, just no cold to go along with it. Good to see the vorts continuing to dig though. 12z decided not to really phase the northern stream with the southern energy Time to wait and see what the Euro does with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I don't believe in early season setting the stage as much as some (well, really I don't believe in it much at all). But it's interesting to see the tendency for vorts to try to pass south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I don't believe in early season setting the stage as much as some (well, really I don't believe in it much at all). But it's interesting to see the tendency for vorts to try to pass south of us. Makes for interesting viewing, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 12z decided not to really phase the northern stream with the southern energy Time to wait and see what the Euro does with it. Looks a little better than the GFS (I think), and it sends another vort south on Sunday. GFS doesn't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The boundary layer never cools down fast enough to make snow on the back side in these neutral trough situations. You may get some snow in the mountains in the 18z GFS scenario but not much else for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 1am temps: DCA: 41 BWI: 31 IAD: 30 All three stations are reporting clear skies and calm winds. lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 25..... Coldest night so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 22F here. The last several nights have all been colder than forecast, with this morning being the coldest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 The 06Z GFS op 500's look really interesting on the potential Friday event with a negative tilted trough deep into the south. But the ensemble members don't agree whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 23 here for the low. No wind at all this morning, but leaves are just raining down off of all the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Had a little "slushy frost" on the car this morning. Nothing like last Sunday morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Nice and chilly this morning. Need to figure out when to put down the storm windows but it isn't looking like it will be this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Nice contrast with blue sky and leaves today. Perfect fall stuff. My cutting the lawn short trick when the leaves fall has worked great this year. My neighbors have already done their yards once and I STILL have less leaves in my yard than them right now. Gonna do a quick pile up and tight mowing. Come on NW winds! Am I evil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Put flannel sheets on the bed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 i tihnk my heat is on the fritz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 i tihnk my heat is on the fritz Uh oh! Hope it's an easy and inexpensive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 i tihnk my heat is on the fritz Buy a $60 ceramic heater. It will keep any room warm and toasty. You won't use it often but you'll be happy you own one from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 i tihnk my heat is on the fritz build a fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I think right now is the only time there has been "decent" color this year in my yard. Took these a few minutes ago. You can see the mangled tops of my tulip poplars. One of those trees decided to drop a branch through my roof during severe outbreak in july 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Uh oh! Hope it's an easy and inexpensive solution. it still works but not as well as it did and it's louder. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I'm not a big believer in Nov patterns being a precursor to winter but I really don't like the high pressure parked in the goa pretty much through the entire run of the GFS (euro supports this too). We really don't want to see that during djf. Zwts made a great post about the pdo in another thread. Since we pretty much need a +PNA during a nina to get the ns vorts to take a favorable track, any high parked in the goa is going to deny that. If we have to rely on blocking this winter then it could be a frustrating one. I'm in no way saying I think the prog -pna through the first half of the month is a big deal but it is also don't like a persistent high in the goa and a -pna setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I'm not a big believer in Nov patterns being a precursor to winter but I really don't like the high pressure parked in the goa pretty much through the entire run of the GFS (euro supports this too). We really don't want to see that during djf. Zwts made a great post about the pdo in another thread. Since we pretty much need a +PNA during a nina to get the ns vorts to take a favorable track, any high parked in the goa is going to deny that. If we have to rely on blocking this winter then it could be a frustrating one. I'm in no way saying I think the prog -pna through the first half of the month is a big deal but it is also don't like a persistent high in the goa and a -pna setting up. come on Bob, there's no reason to let weather patterns get in the way of our snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 -NAO seems like a lock for most of the mid-month, but the -PNA pattern is going to keep the SE ridge around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 -NAO seems like a lock for most of the mid-month, but the -PNA pattern is going to keep the SE ridge around. Pretty unexciting -nao. Seasonal to slightly below seasonal. End of gfs run replaces the big high in the goa with a low. Fantasy land but at least its gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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