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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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On a disappointing note, it looks like the Canaan Heights Coop. observer is at least shutting down his site -- http://canaanweather.4t.com/ maybe even discontinuing as a coop observer.

In know that many used that as a valuable reference for the stats up here. Maybe I'll have to step up to the plate.

Wow that sucks, it was one of the few reliable COOPS out there in the Appalachians of WVA/WMD. Come on Jon, take it over, please :thumbsup:

32* here now after a high of 46*

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I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

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I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

I think it is good we aren't wasting a good pattern....It is only November 19th.........I'd hate to waste a +PNA pattern right now when we have no blocking and climo is horrible.....+PNA is not typically a stable pattern in a NIna and I'd much rather get one when we have blocking or climo is better....a -EPO pattern without a +PNA or -NAO is not usually good for us, but I think it is a 1st step as Wes and Coastal have mentioned....

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Major cold blast and Dec 5 snow on 6z Gfs..but no blocking

I agree on the cold blast, but not sure where you're seeing a Dec 5th snow. Although it's transient, that's the best looking +PNA we've seen on a model run in a long time.

Even better news is that the 0z and 6z ensembles are generally supportive of an eastern trough/western ridge by early December. But, again, they all look fairly transient without upstream blocking in the Atlantic.

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I thought a light south non river wind would help. Seemed like pretty good conditions for radiational cooling. Even most of Wakefield's area is below freezing.

Check out Ft. Belvior. Into the 20s with calm conditions prior to midnight, but as soon as there was a registered breeze, jumped up into the mid-30s. DCA had the wind off the river the whole night and never stood a chance.

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The latest GFS does show a change towards a positive PNA as we retrograde the upper low away from AK. if so that at least could initiate a pattern break and at least temporary change. Unless the NAo goes negative, I don't see the change lasting. I also wonder whether it will be a little too quick as that often seems to be the case when chnages start occurring.

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What was the final temp? I got down to 28.8.

37.. the river is still like 46. i've had probably 2 or 3 freezes here. there was ice on stuff this morning though i think we only got to about 34-35.

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37.. the river is still like 46. i've had probably 2 or 3 freezes here. there was ice on stuff this morning though i think we only got to about 34-35.

I think 35-36 for us...WTOP/4000 Wisconsin got to 34....Howard/Children's hospital 36-37.....we are probably 35-36....in my experience, most of DC is right around or slightly below DCA, except when you get into the more elevated areas of upper NW...even Chevy Chase elementary was 34...sometimes the dowtnown stations are a degree warmer even....there used to be a station at the zoo....not sure why they got rid of it...I think we definitely got below freezing on the 12th and probably yesterday morning too, but I didn't check...Howard doesn't like that some of these stations are on roof tops.....he may have a point, but I think they are pretty accurate once you toss the outliers

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if we only had cold air around

the NAM is depicting a classic DCA/BWI special, with a west to east system jackpoting us over the next day with probably close to .75"

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

High Pressure is in the perfect spot just north of NY State Border

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

I just hope we get a few more of these through the winter, once it finally gets cold

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