Ian Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dca will hit tonight imo. 31 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dca will hit tonight imo. 31 maybe? South wind and dp of 23. I'll take the under, but only slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 On a disappointing note, it looks like the Canaan Heights Coop. observer is at least shutting down his site -- http://canaanweather.4t.com/ maybe even discontinuing as a coop observer. In know that many used that as a valuable reference for the stats up here. Maybe I'll have to step up to the plate. Wow that sucks, it was one of the few reliable COOPS out there in the Appalachians of WVA/WMD. Come on Jon, take it over, please 32* here now after a high of 46* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 DCA is stuck at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ****!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 There was frost on the leaves when I walked the dog @ 10pm. Wtf? Is DCA sitting on top of a nuclear waste site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 DCA is stuck at 39 it hit 38 somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die. I more pessimistic than Wes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die. I more pessimistic than Wes right now. I think it is good we aren't wasting a good pattern....It is only November 19th.........I'd hate to waste a +PNA pattern right now when we have no blocking and climo is horrible.....+PNA is not typically a stable pattern in a NIna and I'd much rather get one when we have blocking or climo is better....a -EPO pattern without a +PNA or -NAO is not usually good for us, but I think it is a 1st step as Wes and Coastal have mentioned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dca will hit tonight imo. 31 maybe? WAA FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 WAA FTL. I thought a light south non river wind would help. Seemed like pretty good conditions for radiational cooling. Even most of Wakefield's area is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 WAA FTL. DCA sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Major cold blast and Dec 5 snow on 6z Gfs..but no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Major cold blast and Dec 5 snow on 6z Gfs..but no blocking I agree on the cold blast, but not sure where you're seeing a Dec 5th snow. Although it's transient, that's the best looking +PNA we've seen on a model run in a long time. Even better news is that the 0z and 6z ensembles are generally supportive of an eastern trough/western ridge by early December. But, again, they all look fairly transient without upstream blocking in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dca fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I was away all week, but I see my station recorded a 20 Friday morning. Heavy frost this morning as well. After this past weeks rain I'm almost to the 50" mark for the year. It was very nice in Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I thought a light south non river wind would help. Seemed like pretty good conditions for radiational cooling. Even most of Wakefield's area is below freezing. Check out Ft. Belvior. Into the 20s with calm conditions prior to midnight, but as soon as there was a registered breeze, jumped up into the mid-30s. DCA had the wind off the river the whole night and never stood a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Check out Ft. Belvior. Into the 20s with calm conditions prior to midnight, but as soon as there was a registered breeze, jumped up into the mid-30s. DCA had the wind off the river the whole night and never stood a chance. Every once in awhile I need another geography lesson on the peninsula known as DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dca fail What was the final temp? I got down to 28.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The latest GFS does show a change towards a positive PNA as we retrograde the upper low away from AK. if so that at least could initiate a pattern break and at least temporary change. Unless the NAo goes negative, I don't see the change lasting. I also wonder whether it will be a little too quick as that often seems to be the case when chnages start occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 METAR KDCA 191152Z 19009KT 10SM BKN250 03/M04 A3044 RMK AO2 SLP309 T00331039 10039 20028 51005 2.8°C which is 37.0°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 What was the final temp? I got down to 28.8. 37.. the river is still like 46. i've had probably 2 or 3 freezes here. there was ice on stuff this morning though i think we only got to about 34-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Another excellent fall weekend shaping up. I do have a question though. When blowing leaves, why does the wind always blow against you no matter which direction your facing? It's really pissing me off today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 37.. the river is still like 46. i've had probably 2 or 3 freezes here. there was ice on stuff this morning though i think we only got to about 34-35. I think 35-36 for us...WTOP/4000 Wisconsin got to 34....Howard/Children's hospital 36-37.....we are probably 35-36....in my experience, most of DC is right around or slightly below DCA, except when you get into the more elevated areas of upper NW...even Chevy Chase elementary was 34...sometimes the dowtnown stations are a degree warmer even....there used to be a station at the zoo....not sure why they got rid of it...I think we definitely got below freezing on the 12th and probably yesterday morning too, but I didn't check...Howard doesn't like that some of these stations are on roof tops.....he may have a point, but I think they are pretty accurate once you toss the outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Only made it to 31.8 last night around 11PM, then warmed to 34 by sunrise. Doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Only made it to 31.8 last night around 11PM, then warmed to 34 by sunrise. Doesn't make much sense. At 850 we went from about +2 at 00z to +7 at 12z. At 900 we went from -2 to +9. Pretty good warm air advection overnight. Damn nice day today, and even warmer tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 if we only had cold air around the NAM is depicting a classic DCA/BWI special, with a west to east system jackpoting us over the next day with probably close to .75" http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M High Pressure is in the perfect spot just north of NY State Border http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M I just hope we get a few more of these through the winter, once it finally gets cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 At 850 we went from about +2 at 00z to +7 at 12z. At 900 we went from -2 to +9. Pretty good warm air advection overnight. Damn nice day today, and even warmer tomorrow. Needed to clear my cache. And def already have 53 at 9AM, going to hit at least 70 it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Needed to clear my cache. And def already have 53 at 9AM, going to hit at least 70 it looks. you think? clouds are thickening and temps might not make it out of the low 60's if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 no chance it hits 70 today.. mid-60s still seem a decent bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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