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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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On a disappointing note, it looks like the Canaan Heights Coop. observer is at least shutting down his site -- http://canaanweather.4t.com/ maybe even discontinuing as a coop observer.

In know that many used that as a valuable reference for the stats up here. Maybe I'll have to step up to the plate.

I just read that this morning, man that sucks. I check it all the time it will be missed

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Euro looks interesting in the 192-240 frames. 500 is closed off in the carolinas and 850 temps are -2. 850 winds out of the n and nw and a hp sitting in se canada. Not saying it says snow or anything but at least it's something to watch. Verbatim it would at least "feel" like late Nov.

Cool, it'd be fun to track something.

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What one model giveth, the next taketh away.

yep, been watching it happen since 2006. Of course, it's silly to think that there much of a chance of anything verifying at days 8+.

both the euro and gfs are breaking down the big -pna in the extended. that is probably the only significant thing that I like. epo and ao are still stinking it up pretty good though.

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bored with the weather around here... however, I do enjoy the warmer temps :) I don't mind delaying winter even if it does royally screw over my forecast.

Earlier in the week? Awfully chilly outside my door today :whistle:

Temp anomalies for the month-to-date:

BWI: +1.6F

DCA: +0.5F

IAD: 0.0F

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On a disappointing note, it looks like the Canaan Heights Coop. observer is at least shutting down his site -- http://canaanweather.4t.com/ maybe even discontinuing as a coop observer.

In know that many used that as a valuable reference for the stats up here. Maybe I'll have to step up to the plate.

Wow that sucks, it was one of the few reliable COOPS out there in the Appalachians of WVA/WMD. Come on Jon, take it over, please :thumbsup:

32* here now after a high of 46*

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I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

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Major cold blast and Dec 5 snow on 6z Gfs..but no blocking

I agree on the cold blast, but not sure where you're seeing a Dec 5th snow. Although it's transient, that's the best looking +PNA we've seen on a model run in a long time.

Even better news is that the 0z and 6z ensembles are generally supportive of an eastern trough/western ridge by early December. But, again, they all look fairly transient without upstream blocking in the Atlantic.

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I thought a light south non river wind would help. Seemed like pretty good conditions for radiational cooling. Even most of Wakefield's area is below freezing.

Check out Ft. Belvior. Into the 20s with calm conditions prior to midnight, but as soon as there was a registered breeze, jumped up into the mid-30s. DCA had the wind off the river the whole night and never stood a chance.

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The latest GFS does show a change towards a positive PNA as we retrograde the upper low away from AK. if so that at least could initiate a pattern break and at least temporary change. Unless the NAo goes negative, I don't see the change lasting. I also wonder whether it will be a little too quick as that often seems to be the case when chnages start occurring.

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