Ian Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se yea had sleet here, and a good period of mangled snowflakes hitting the windshield just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se I'll be looking but haven't seen any yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Heaviest precip staying south and east and on the shore? Familiar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I like the chilly weather and dark skies. It's a nice reminder that we are getting ready to turn the corner.......maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'll be looking but haven't seen any yet. i got some drizzle. it reminded me of december 26, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 i got some drizzle. it reminded me of december 26, Yeah, that was my reference just above. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There are some snowflakes in the air in the Herndon-Reston are right now. Lasted about a minute, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 looks like areas to my south cashed in with the qpf hmmm, what year had an OCT snow and which area around me did better (climo-wise) with snowfall....79/80 2.5" of precip yesterday and today here in Short Pump. The heavier bursts of precip definitely mixed here. We had maybe 45 minutes or so of a 40/40/20 Rain/sleet/snow mix this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There's some good entertainment @ days 9-11 on the 12z gfs. Big ole closed 500mb low spinning around in the ohio valley. Why does it feel like I've recently seen this movie before? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There's some good entertainment @ days 9-11 on the 12z gfs. Big ole closed 500mb low spinning around in the ohio valley. Why does it feel like I've recently seen this movie before? lol Also, the December 5th storm forms at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There's some good entertainment @ days 9-11 on the 12z gfs. Big ole closed 500mb low spinning around in the ohio valley. Why does it feel like I've recently seen this movie before? lol no cold air though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 no cold air though ha! Cut off to our west = rain anytime of year. I was just pointing out that this seems to be the season of cut offs. Not saying I remotely believe it's going to verify but if it does, it would be anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 ha! Cut off to our west = rain anytime of year. I was just pointing out that this seems to be the season of cut offs. Not saying I remotely believe it's going to verify but if it does, it would be anomalous. There are 3 or 4 interesting looks on the GFS ensembles for the Thanksgiving holiday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There are 3 or 4 interesting looks on the GFS ensembles for the Thanksgiving holiday time frame. If you look at the 500 h patterns for those different solutions, they still don't look that exciting. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTNH_12z/f156.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'm going to be a glass half full kind of guy here, but there has been a couple/few days of consistency here on the GFS , Euro and their ensemble means to start changing the pattern toward the end of the month. They move that PV out of Alaska and allow the PNA to at least go neutral, if not weakly positive. Problem is, as mentioned elsewhere, that there's not much available cold air in Canada. But, that would allow us to at least have seasonable temperatures (which is really what we've had so far in November as well), if not a bit below normal. If we can get the PV out of AK, get the PNA back into the positive range, and at least keep the NAO near neutral, that should allow Canada to get cold and that would bode well going into mid December. I believe that's when folks have also suggested the MJO would be in a more favorable octant. I don't know much about MJO forcing, so I'm not sure if that's a tail wagging the dog kind of scenario or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Also, the December 5th storm forms at 384 <image removed> Recent climo is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 worst winter EVAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 brrrrrrrrrr cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 If you look at the 500 h patterns for those different solutions, they still don't look that exciting. http://www.meteo.psu...H_12z/f156.html True, and I confess that I haven't had any time to look at anything (even if I did actually know what I was looking at). But they do look better than they did about 4 or 5 days ago. At least maybe the worm is starting to turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'm going to be a glass half full kind of guy here, but there has been a couple/few days of consistency here on the GFS , Euro and their ensemble means to start changing the pattern toward the end of the month. They move that PV out of Alaska and allow the PNA to at least go neutral, if not weakly positive. Problem is, as mentioned elsewhere, that there's not much available cold air in Canada. But, that would allow us to at least have seasonable temperatures (which is really what we've had so far in November as well), if not a bit below normal. If we can get the PV out of AK, get the PNA back into the positive range, and at least keep the NAO near neutral, that should allow Canada to get cold and that would bode well going into mid December. I believe that's when folks have also suggested the MJO would be in a more favorable octant. I don't know much about MJO forcing, so I'm not sure if that's a tail wagging the dog kind of scenario or not. I think that is pretty much what needs to happen and the euro certainly is starting to show signs of it happening. No one has much skill out past two weeks so even if I think the change won't really get going until after the 1st or second week of December, it doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 snow showers moving through here the past half-hour or so. that marks the 3rd time we've at least seen snow this year. By Nov 17, that's pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro looks interesting in the 192-240 frames. 500 is closed off in the carolinas and 850 temps are -2. 850 winds out of the n and nw and a hp sitting in se canada. Not saying it says snow or anything but at least it's something to watch. Verbatim it would at least "feel" like late Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'm in the winter mood. We got over an inch of snow this evening, so I"m putting on the fire and watching Polar Express with the kids so that I can get the holiday feel going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Its cold. Transient. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm in the winter mood. We got over an inch of snow this evening, so I"m putting on the fire and watching Polar Express with the kids so that I can get the holiday feel going. Sweet Jon, Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This should be my 19th night below freezing since 10/28. But tonight feels the coldest yet, with a brisk 10-20 mph wind and 35 degrees. Really was a nice night to go for a long walk outside. Very invigorating air before bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Brisk walk dorms to fieldhouse today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Some snow cover and calm winds (eventually) helped us drop to 18 degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On a disappointing note, it looks like the Canaan Heights Coop. observer is at least shutting down his site -- http://canaanweather.4t.com/ maybe even discontinuing as a coop observer. In know that many used that as a valuable reference for the stats up here. Maybe I'll have to step up to the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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