Stormpc Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Nice cell north of Charlotte, NC. Big hail maker as it looks. I'd bet against seeing any flakes in the air tomorrow. Surface appears too warm. Precip may be too far east for much of us also when the colder air aloft settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Who cares about flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Numbers ripped from the LWX climo site. Simple November precip vs seasonal snowfall at DCA. That sure has the look of almost no correlation at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like the rain dried all up around the hood....I'm stuck up in Philly this week but will be in Princeton tomorrow...maybe I see some flakes up there...maybe not...ugh I miss my pillow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Numbers ripped from the LWX climo site. Simple November precip vs seasonal snowfall at DCA. That is very informative. Thanks for putting it together. It would be interesting to see if there is better correlation if Oct is included in the data set also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Numbers ripped from the LWX climo site. Simple November precip vs seasonal snowfall at DCA. Thanks for the effort! Have you ever found any good previous/following correlations? For example, previous month's precipitation/following season snowfall, previous season's precipitation/following season snowfall, previous month's temperature/following season snowfall, previous season's temperature/following season snowfall, previous month's precipitation/following season temperature, previous month's temperature/following season temperature, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like the rain dried all up around the hood....I'm stuck up in Philly this week but will be in Princeton tomorrow...maybe I see some flakes up there...maybe not...ugh I miss my pillow Lots of leaves waiting for you to be raked up. Have fun in Ivy league town Princeton. .43 in the guage here since midnight. 49* here now LWX: Head to the highest points to see any snow in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Lolz 00z gfs. gives us some snow showers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 About 5:00am, a heavier shower came through and quickly changed over to sleet. It lasted about 5 minutes then back to rain. Very loud banging against the leaves and roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Anybody see a better look from the longer range? Seems to be improving to me. Also, the EC has a couple of interesting tidbits around day 7 to 10 time frame. It's so hard to get an idea from it because of the data that's available. But, it seems to me, that it is also starting to take on a more interesting look, along with its ens. mean. Thoughts pros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 About 5:00am, a heavier shower came through and quickly changed over to sleet. It lasted about 5 minutes then back to rain. Very loud banging against the leaves and roof. So I wasn't dreaming. I knew I heard some loud pinging at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I was up and got nothing Anyway 0z euro is interesting though no support from anything really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 meh, qpf forecasts from all the models was way too high for yesterday and today me no like-ee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Anybody see a better look from the longer range? Seems to be improving to me. Also, the EC has a couple of interesting tidbits around day 7 to 10 time frame. It's so hard to get an idea from it because of the data that's available. But, it seems to me, that it is also starting to take on a more interesting look, along with its ens. mean. Thoughts pros? The 192 hr storm on last night's Euro has no support on the ensembles so I wouldn't give it much credence. Just look at the ensemble mean from last night's euro or at the GEFS ensembles. They look nothing like the operational. It does look like we will a trasnitory cold shot but basically, the Pacific still needs to improve. By 336 hrs, the ensemble mean does show some ridging in western Canada which would be an improvement but it you look at the ensembles at that time range they are all over the place. The mjo is forecast to be in some of the warmer looking phases at that time so I'm not sure I'd yet buy the somewhat colder look though as I posted yesterday, I do think there will be a transitory cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Both the euro and gfs break down the -pna around hr 192. They look pretty similar @ 500 around the 192-240 timeframe. The euro looks really tasty but there's no sense in taking it seriously. Either way, it's really nice to see ridging out west and consensus starting to build. AO doesn't look to go negative anytime soon so real cold air isn't likely before Dec. EDIT: Adding the pna forcast from cpc. Me likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 meh, qpf forecasts from all the models was way too high for yesterday and today me no like-ee Actually they were quite good out this way. I measured 1.85" for the event.. No flakes this morning, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Both the euro and gfs break down the -pna around hr 192. They look pretty similar @ 500 around the 192-240 timeframe. The euro looks really tasty but there's no sense in taking it seriously. Either way, it's really nice to see ridging out west and consensus starting to build. AO doesn't look to go negative anytime soon so real cold air isn't likely before Dec. That's an important point. While the NCEP ensemble do show a negative NAO index, it look more like an artifact of how it's measured that a true block with a high over Greenland into iceland and a low to the south. Plus the AO forecasts at 14 days are a little more robust than the NAo forecast. The models are still showing a positive EPO in the longer time ranges but its magnitude drops quite a bit towards the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Actually they were quite good out this way. I measured 1.85" for the event.. No flakes this morning, however. Had 1.47 in my backyard. so 1-2 forecast call was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 looks like areas to my south cashed in with the qpf hmmm, what year had an OCT snow and which area around me did better (climo-wise) with snowfall....79/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se yea had sleet here, and a good period of mangled snowflakes hitting the windshield just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 see reports of snow/sleet to se I'll be looking but haven't seen any yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Heaviest precip staying south and east and on the shore? Familiar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I like the chilly weather and dark skies. It's a nice reminder that we are getting ready to turn the corner.......maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'll be looking but haven't seen any yet. i got some drizzle. it reminded me of december 26, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 i got some drizzle. it reminded me of december 26, Yeah, that was my reference just above. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There are some snowflakes in the air in the Herndon-Reston are right now. Lasted about a minute, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 looks like areas to my south cashed in with the qpf hmmm, what year had an OCT snow and which area around me did better (climo-wise) with snowfall....79/80 2.5" of precip yesterday and today here in Short Pump. The heavier bursts of precip definitely mixed here. We had maybe 45 minutes or so of a 40/40/20 Rain/sleet/snow mix this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There's some good entertainment @ days 9-11 on the 12z gfs. Big ole closed 500mb low spinning around in the ohio valley. Why does it feel like I've recently seen this movie before? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 There's some good entertainment @ days 9-11 on the 12z gfs. Big ole closed 500mb low spinning around in the ohio valley. Why does it feel like I've recently seen this movie before? lol Also, the December 5th storm forms at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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