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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion


WxUSAF

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This pattern doesn't bother me....We don't average much snow here before 12/15....I will go on record as stating I would like to see at least 1 modest December event...like 2-4"....even if it is a clipper without much moisture content...I will be kind of bummed if we don't have any measurable snow by 12/31....

I'll also be bummed as I won't have anything to write about.

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GFS tomorrow night? Flurries?

:popcorn:

:P

This system's been looking like borderline changeover to snow (non-accumulating) as the second piece of energy swings through tomorrow... available moisture and low-level temps looking like the only potential hindrances at this point.

Beat you to it.

:)

The 6z GFS is getting our area close next Wed. :popcorn:

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LWX AFD hints at maybe a few isolated severe storms... (snipped from 930AM disco)

THIS WILL

HELP TO PROMOTE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA

THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE IN THIS AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR

IN PLACE AND NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME

INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY CAN TRANSLATE TO THE

SURFACE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN

ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN SHEAR AND

FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED

IN THE HWO.

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You probably could get some flakes if there was some good VV's and dynamic cooling but your dealing with the leftovers and small hydrometeors. Meh.

I also don't see it, temps will be too warm at the surface. I'm not even considering writing anything for the CWG which shows how much I think of it.

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LWX AFD hints at maybe a few isolated severe storms... (snipped from 930AM disco)

I think the SPC's northern extent for severe is a bit too far north in our region... Fredericksburg, VA and points southwest and east could be in the game. If I wasn't busy this week I'd be half-tempted to head down to the VA/NC border for chasing, but even then with the sun going down so early it might not be worth it, anyway.

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I think the SPC's northern extent for severe is a bit too far north in our region... Fredericksburg, VA and points southwest and east could be in the game. If I wasn't busy this week I'd be half-tempted to head down to the VA/NC border for chasing, but even then with the sun going down so early it might not be worth it, anyway.

Could be. Updated HWO as of 3 mins ago mentions limited spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon for teh area i quoted below

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL

POTOMAC RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY

BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS..

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12z GFS ensemble mean actually looks like it's going in a good direction late in the run. Yeah, it's still fantasy-land time, but weakens the Gulf of Alaska trough dramatically, keeps a -NAO, shows some weak troughing over us and hints of ridging out west.

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