Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Just ugly looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Just ugly looking I'm somewhat confident that 40S is at or below normal temps in DEC....If I had to guess, I'd say 75% we have some sort of mean trough in the mid atlantic/southeast, and 25% we torch....Snow is another story....We probably aren't cold the entire month, but I like our chances of more cold the warm...that's all you can really hope for....And I think much of that is PAC driven....The PAC will get better....I am assuming the Atlantic gets better too....if it doesn't like everyone expects it to, this winter could be a disaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 mAjor PaTTErN CHANGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 mAjor PaTTErN CHANGE In a warm November, it will get cold at some point....it has to....so if you don't get the timing close it isn't much of a call....Unless we have disaster December, we are going to get a 7-10 day stretch of pattern change cold at some point....The verification is getting the timing correct.....I don't know when it will happen...I think analogs support cold rather than warm....But I wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed back til 12/10-15 when the MJO cycles around again....Until then maybe we are ridgy in the means, with periodic 2-3 day transient cold shots.....which probably means no snow, but maybe you get lucky and get a fast moving clipper a day behind the cold front.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 In a warm November, it will get cold at some point....it has to....so if you don't get the timing close it isn't much of a call....Unless we have disaster December, we are going to get a 7-10 day stretch of pattern change cold at some point....The verification is getting the timing correct.....I don't know when it will happen...I think analogs support cold rather than warm....But I wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed back til 12/10-15 when the MJO cycles around again....Until then maybe we are ridgy in the means, with periodic 2-3 day transient cold shots.....which probably means no snow, but maybe you get lucky and get a fast moving clipper a day behind the cold front.... I guess I'm at the point I hope we torch till I get back tho since it's too early for snow I doubt I'd miss the cold. Maybe I should convince my dad to take a few day trip to Tahoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I guess I'm at the point I hope we torch till I get back tho since it's too early for snow I doubt I'd miss the cold. Maybe I should convince my dad to take a few day trip to Tahoe. I'd be kind of stunned if we saw more than a flurry at best here over the next 2 weeks....I will be in the tropics next week until the 27th and I am not worried about missing anything...My biggest concern is it is in the 60s here and I wasted a perfectly good weather week back home while sitting on the beach in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'd be kind of stunned if we saw more than a flurry at best here over the next 2 weeks....I will be in the tropics next week until the 27th and I am not worried about missing anything...My biggest concern is it is in the 60s here and I wasted a perfectly good weather week back home while sitting on the beach in the 80s the alaskan vortex is a stable pattern... i remember when it developed in 2006 and we kept waiting for the pattern change that didn't happen til feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html wall to wall pac jet through the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'd be kind of stunned if we saw more than a flurry at best here over the next 2 weeks....I will be in the tropics next week until the 27th and I am not worried about missing anything...My biggest concern is it is in the 60s here and I wasted a perfectly good weather week back home while sitting on the beach in the 80s I think that you are safe, the big AK vortex doesn't look to be going anywhere soon and the AO looks to remain postive. That's pretty bad look. I'm starting to think the pattern change will hold off until after the 1st week of Dec maybe even the second. The mjo looks like it will be in quadrants 4-6 during the 1st two weeks of Dec which generally are on the warm side, especially 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving! Gobble, gobble. However, the Euro from 9 days ago wasn't exactly spot on with today's forecast either. So, I'm not getting too worried or excited over 10 day forecasts. Well, I wanted to post pics from the model, but can't seem to get it to work. Trust me, they aren't a good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I honestly wouldn't mind a few more days like yesterday. It's early, no need to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 GFS tomorrow night? Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 There is always a need to panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Question: Would you (anyone) rather have no systems to track, no chance of snow, or, get to track several systems that manage to narrowly miss us (last year)? Personally, I'm much more at ease when there is no chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 There is always a need to panic LOL...love!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Question: Would you (anyone) rather have no systems to track, no chance of snow, or, get to track several systems that manage to narrowly miss us (last year)? Personally, I'm much more at ease when there is no chance of snow. For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. What if we don't need somthing and nothing happens and somthing is needed and nothing is happening until something starts to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 What if we don't need somthing and nothing happens and somthing is needed and nothing is happening until something starts to happen? We might be kind of confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 LOL...love!! Please for all of us, go back to Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. The depth of that statement is, just, deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The depth of that statement is, just, deep. Snow can't fall from a cloudless sky. Unless there are clouds really close by and it's windy maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So what happened today? I thought there was 100% chance of rain today? Got maybe 30 rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think that you are safe, the big AK vortex doesn't look to be going anywhere soon and the AO looks to remain postive. That's pretty bad look. I'm starting to think the pattern change will hold off until after the 1st week of Dec maybe even the second. The mjo looks like it will be in quadrants 4-6 during the 1st two weeks of Dec which generally are on the warm side, especially 4 and 5. This pattern doesn't bother me....We don't average much snow here before 12/15....I will go on record as stating I would like to see at least 1 modest December event...like 2-4"....even if it is a clipper without much moisture content...I will be kind of bummed if we don't have any measurable snow by 12/31.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So what happened today? I thought there was 100% chance of rain today? Got maybe 30 rain drops. Don't know but I had planned on working outside picking up/blowing leaves, unfortunately, the weather never stopped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This pattern doesn't bother me....We don't average much snow here before 12/15....I will go on record as stating I would like to see at least 1 modest December event...like 2-4"....even if it is a clipper without much moisture content...I will be kind of bummed if we don't have any measurable snow by 12/31.... I'll also be bummed as I won't have anything to write about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Picked up .16 of rain since midnight. Hopefully the beginning of much more today Got down to 52 for an overnight low and currently at 55* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Slick roads with all the leaves. Bring on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This system's been looking like borderline changeover to snow (non-accumulating) as the second piece of energy swings through tomorrow... available moisture and low-level temps looking like the only potential hindrances at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Rain + semi darkness + lots of cars = traffic sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.