Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 What if we don't need somthing and nothing happens and somthing is needed and nothing is happening until something starts to happen? We might be kind of confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 LOL...love!! Please for all of us, go back to Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. The depth of that statement is, just, deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The depth of that statement is, just, deep. Snow can't fall from a cloudless sky. Unless there are clouds really close by and it's windy maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So what happened today? I thought there was 100% chance of rain today? Got maybe 30 rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So what happened today? I thought there was 100% chance of rain today? Got maybe 30 rain drops. Don't know but I had planned on working outside picking up/blowing leaves, unfortunately, the weather never stopped me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This pattern doesn't bother me....We don't average much snow here before 12/15....I will go on record as stating I would like to see at least 1 modest December event...like 2-4"....even if it is a clipper without much moisture content...I will be kind of bummed if we don't have any measurable snow by 12/31.... I'll also be bummed as I won't have anything to write about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Picked up .16 of rain since midnight. Hopefully the beginning of much more today Got down to 52 for an overnight low and currently at 55* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Slick roads with all the leaves. Bring on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This system's been looking like borderline changeover to snow (non-accumulating) as the second piece of energy swings through tomorrow... available moisture and low-level temps looking like the only potential hindrances at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Rain + semi darkness + lots of cars = traffic sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This system's been looking like borderline changeover to snow (non-accumulating) as the second piece of energy swings through tomorrow... available moisture and low-level temps looking like the only potential hindrances at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The clown maps don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The clown maps don't lie @ the map, congrats Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Question: Would you (anyone) rather have no systems to track, no chance of snow, or, get to track several systems that manage to narrowly miss us (last year)? Personally, I'm much more at ease when there is no chance of snow. Agreed. Last year took several years off my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The clown maps don't lie Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS tomorrow night? Flurries? This system's been looking like borderline changeover to snow (non-accumulating) as the second piece of energy swings through tomorrow... available moisture and low-level temps looking like the only potential hindrances at this point. Beat you to it. The 6z GFS is getting our area close next Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 @ the map, congrats Wes? Surface temps are forecast to be in the 39-42 degree range. Does the Euro have any precip during that time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Surface temps are forecast to be in the 39-42 degree range. Does the Euro have any precip during that time period? It's about the same as the GFS with precip, but it's warmer in the low and mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's about the same as the GFS with precip, but it's warmer in the low and mid levels. I'm not excited. Maybe we see a a flake or two but I doubt it for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 You probably could get some flakes if there was some good VV's and dynamic cooling but your dealing with the leftovers and small hydrometeors. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 LWX AFD hints at maybe a few isolated severe storms... (snipped from 930AM disco) THIS WILLHELP TO PROMOTE THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE IN THIS AREA. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE AND NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY CAN TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 You probably could get some flakes if there was some good VV's and dynamic cooling but your dealing with the leftovers and small hydrometeors. Meh. I also don't see it, temps will be too warm at the surface. I'm not even considering writing anything for the CWG which shows how much I think of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 LWX AFD hints at maybe a few isolated severe storms... (snipped from 930AM disco) I think the SPC's northern extent for severe is a bit too far north in our region... Fredericksburg, VA and points southwest and east could be in the game. If I wasn't busy this week I'd be half-tempted to head down to the VA/NC border for chasing, but even then with the sun going down so early it might not be worth it, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think the SPC's northern extent for severe is a bit too far north in our region... Fredericksburg, VA and points southwest and east could be in the game. If I wasn't busy this week I'd be half-tempted to head down to the VA/NC border for chasing, but even then with the sun going down so early it might not be worth it, anyway. Could be. Updated HWO as of 3 mins ago mentions limited spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon for teh area i quoted below SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i agree with ellinwood. i was surprised the spc % comes this far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks like driest november is out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks like driest november is out the window if the computer progs through the end of the month come close to being right with qpf, driest as in 01/02 and 07/08 look to be out, and that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 SLGT risk got nudged further north... north of RIC, but SE of EZF at 1630 -- http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day1.gif 5% wind probs DC south and 2% TOR same, perhaps a nudge south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z GFS ensemble mean actually looks like it's going in a good direction late in the run. Yeah, it's still fantasy-land time, but weakens the Gulf of Alaska trough dramatically, keeps a -NAO, shows some weak troughing over us and hints of ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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