Avdave Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Today was gorgeous, loved it outside. Got more yard work done, now everything is done but turning off the water outside. Got another 2 weeks till I take care of that. Got to 72 here for a high, breeze made it even nicer out there. Rather have this wx now than say in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Today was gorgeous, loved it outside. Got more yard work done, now everything is done but turning off the water outside. Got another 2 weeks till I take care of that. Got to 72 here for a high, breeze made it even nicer out there. Rather have this wx now than say in late December. I'd take 72 and sun at any time of the year. To each his own, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Zone forecast for bwi went with "wet", 1.5 to 2 inches of rain tomorrow through wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I want to say that it sucks that it's 8PM in the middle of November and it's 70 degrees outside, but man, it feels good out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Through the first 14 days of November, the following years had 0.06" or less of precip 2005 2001 1964 1931 1918 1917 1878 1874 The final precipitation totals (in inches) for each of those months were as follows: November 2005: 1.92 November 2001: 0.55 November 1964: 1.42 November 1931: 1.01 November 1918: 1.48 November 1917: 0.53 November 1878: 3.03 November 1874: 2.08 Average, 8 years: 1.50 So, the average of those eight years is very similar to what would be expected based on multiplying 16 (the number of days remaining in November) by the average of .093 inches of precipitation per day that has occurred in DC in November during 1871-2010. Let's see how close we come to that average this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 NAM reconsidered and decided to put an end to talk of a record dry November. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F15%2F2011+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It's 70 degrees at midnight with a warm southerly wind ahead of this line of showers coming in. It's hot in the house even with the windows open...I'm temped to put the A/C on. The line of showers is moving in pretty fast. NWS says to expect wind gusts of 45 mph with it. Doesn't appear to be any lightning with it near here. Feels like a summer evening outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS. I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS. I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong Actually, I think DT has played it pretty straight down the line. Yes, several weeks ago he called for a pattern flip by the 15th. Because that's what models were showing for several days. As that's changed, he's done a fairly good job of explaining WHAT the pattern is and HOW it has to change to get sustained cold into the east. There are plenty of times when one call DT out for being a bombastic jackass and totally wrong (and I say that as someone who actually likes the guy). This isn't one of them. Ji, don't be a dick towards other people just because you're mad that our temperatures are above average. You're acting like it's 70 when the average temperature is 45 not 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Had a couple sprinkles driving around this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Some pics I took this past weekend of foliage in Rock Creek Park: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-other-side-of-washington-dc-a-weekend-of-near-peak-color-in-rock-creek-park/2011/11/14/gIQA8V2gON_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wxrisk has been a disaster on facebook spinning his original bad forecast of a major pattern change by the 15h and then by Thanksgiving....etc. He is acting like he saw this all along with is complete BS. I guess when you control your messaging and followers, you can spin anything you want and never be wrong DT is a master at doing that, anything to inflate his cocky ego more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Awesome overnight, got down to 59*, pretty incredible. Currently OVC and 63*, perfect temps outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Actually, I think DT has played it pretty straight down the line. Yes, several weeks ago he called for a pattern flip by the 15th. Because that's what models were showing for several days. As that's changed, he's done a fairly good job of explaining WHAT the pattern is and HOW it has to change to get sustained cold into the east. There are plenty of times when one call DT out for being a bombastic jackass and totally wrong (and I say that as someone who actually likes the guy). This isn't one of them. Ji, don't be a dick towards other people just because you're mad that our temperatures are above average. You're acting like it's 70 when the average temperature is 45 not 57. It is not just DT I have been following several forecasters for the past few weeks and Joe Bastardi, Joe D'aleo Larry Cosgrove and a couple of others were saying that sometime between Nov 22 and Dec 1 all hell would start to break loose and that Dec and first two weeks of Jan would be very cold and snowy. Now it seems like all of them are pushing back the winter onset including DT. Were there forecasters who were saying DEc would be warm.? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Max min records in play today. We'll have to see what happens with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It is not just DT I have been following several forecasters for the past few weeks and Joe Bastardi, Joe D'aleo Larry Cosgrove and a couple of others were saying that sometime between Nov 22 and Dec 1 all hell would start to break loose and that Dec and first two weeks of Jan would be very cold and snowy. Now it seems like all of them are pushing back the winter onset including DT. Were there forecasters who were saying DEc would be warm.? Just wondering. Roger Smith predicted a warm December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Just ugly looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 mAjor PaTTErN CHANGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 In a warm November, it will get cold at some point....it has to....so if you don't get the timing close it isn't much of a call....Unless we have disaster December, we are going to get a 7-10 day stretch of pattern change cold at some point....The verification is getting the timing correct.....I don't know when it will happen...I think analogs support cold rather than warm....But I wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed back til 12/10-15 when the MJO cycles around again....Until then maybe we are ridgy in the means, with periodic 2-3 day transient cold shots.....which probably means no snow, but maybe you get lucky and get a fast moving clipper a day behind the cold front.... I guess I'm at the point I hope we torch till I get back tho since it's too early for snow I doubt I'd miss the cold. Maybe I should convince my dad to take a few day trip to Tahoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'd be kind of stunned if we saw more than a flurry at best here over the next 2 weeks....I will be in the tropics next week until the 27th and I am not worried about missing anything...My biggest concern is it is in the 60s here and I wasted a perfectly good weather week back home while sitting on the beach in the 80s the alaskan vortex is a stable pattern... i remember when it developed in 2006 and we kept waiting for the pattern change that didn't happen til feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html wall to wall pac jet through the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I'd be kind of stunned if we saw more than a flurry at best here over the next 2 weeks....I will be in the tropics next week until the 27th and I am not worried about missing anything...My biggest concern is it is in the 60s here and I wasted a perfectly good weather week back home while sitting on the beach in the 80s I think that you are safe, the big AK vortex doesn't look to be going anywhere soon and the AO looks to remain postive. That's pretty bad look. I'm starting to think the pattern change will hold off until after the 1st week of Dec maybe even the second. The mjo looks like it will be in quadrants 4-6 during the 1st two weeks of Dec which generally are on the warm side, especially 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Happy Thanksgiving! Gobble, gobble. However, the Euro from 9 days ago wasn't exactly spot on with today's forecast either. So, I'm not getting too worried or excited over 10 day forecasts. Well, I wanted to post pics from the model, but can't seem to get it to work. Trust me, they aren't a good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I honestly wouldn't mind a few more days like yesterday. It's early, no need to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 GFS tomorrow night? Flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 There is always a need to panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Question: Would you (anyone) rather have no systems to track, no chance of snow, or, get to track several systems that manage to narrowly miss us (last year)? Personally, I'm much more at ease when there is no chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 There is always a need to panic LOL...love!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Question: Would you (anyone) rather have no systems to track, no chance of snow, or, get to track several systems that manage to narrowly miss us (last year)? Personally, I'm much more at ease when there is no chance of snow. For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 For now having nothing to track is fine. Eventually we need something or nothing happens. What if we don't need somthing and nothing happens and somthing is needed and nothing is happening until something starts to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.