skierinvermont Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I think it definitely overperformed in New London and Middlesex counties.. it sounded like most on here and the NWS were expecting 2-4 away from the coast and a coating on the immediate coast. Part way into the storm they upgraded the inland advisory to a warning for 10-14 and issued an advisory for 2-6 for the coast. When the storm started they said it would be all rain until nightfall.. I got half an hour of rain before the flip then all snow. I don't know whether it overperformed relative to the models or if forecasters were just conservative b/c it was October. The GFS was definitely way too warm until the 12z Saturday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I think it definitely overperformed in New London and Middlesex counties.. it sounded like most on here and the NWS were expecting 2-4 away from the coast and a coating on the immediate coast. Part way into the storm they upgraded the inland advisory to a warning for 10-14 and issued an advisory for 2-6 for the coast. When the storm started they said it would be all rain until nightfall.. I got half an hour of rain before the flip then all snow. I don't know whether it overperformed relative to the models or if forecasters were just conservative b/c it was October. The GFS was definitely way too warm until the 12z Saturday run. did tubes lose power? Would like to hear some stories see some pics from Rindge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 did tubes lose power? Would like to hear some stories see some pics from Rindge He had reported 24", but that was one of the the lasts posts from him I read. I assume he is busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 He had reported 24", but that was one of the the lasts posts from him I read. I assume he is busy He got 25" up there just measuring at the end of the storm. I talked to him. Matches well with New Ipswich reporting 26" and Jaffrey reporting a possibly slightly inflated 31"...though I suppose they could have had that match. He might have had as much as 27-28" if he did 6 hourlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 He might have had as much as 27-28" if he did 6 hourlies. The totals he was reporting on here were after adding some in for compaction and he did clear once after 16".. but he might have given you a different # Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 He got 25" up there just measuring at the end of the storm. I talked to him. Matches well with New Ipswich reporting 26" and Jaffrey reporting a possibly slightly inflated 31"...though I suppose they could have had that match. He might have had as much as 27-28" if he did 6 hourlies. Yeah, I could see 28" if that was at the end. Very dry big dendrite stuff around me. He must have been in the fluff the whole time. I got 20" after compaction, and I could have seen it being more. I did not do 6 hours Tim Kelly was questioning Jaffrey, but I think that was legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Thanks Will. I did compile and post my notes on 19th century storms (including early-season/late-season events) at: http://free.yudu.com...he-19th-Century Thanks for the great link Don. You do some great work. I hope to someday be able to view the former page you had. I would certainly be willing to help you out...especially for the SNE stations. I always found that page very valuable to read for historical precedent. Nice and concise and gave a quick account of the snow. Probably more useful than you know. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Considering we're going with the most anomalous as the perspective here then IMO the only other event that can be compared to this would be the BDL tornado and that's b/c we got a F4/borderline F5 tornado in the month of October! Anyways this event takes the cake b/c of the incredibly large impact it had on society and people's lives. Millions and millions of people's lives were affected in one form or another. Power outages, damage, loss of life, the impacts financially...this was complete devastation. We have never, not once seen anything close to this at this time of year. Sure it's snowed in October before and higher elevation areas have seen their share but to the degree of what this was is beyond epic. Just take a look at the cold air that was aloft in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...in the minus teens Celsius at 700mb and in the minus twenties Celsius at 500mb! That would be pretty crazy for mid-January. I just can't imagine getting anything worse than what we just witnessed, unless we were to get a category 3 or 4 hurricane which moved at a speed similar to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Considering we're going with the most anomalous as the perspective here then IMO the only other event that can be compared to this would be the BDL tornado and that's b/c we got a F4/borderline F5 tornado in the month of October! Anyways this event takes the cake b/c of the incredibly large impact it had on society and people's lives. Millions and millions of people's lives were affected in one form or another. Power outages, damage, loss of life, the impacts financially...this was complete devastation. We have never, not once seen anything close to this at this time of year. Sure it's snowed in October before and higher elevation areas have seen their share but to the degree of what this was is beyond epic. Just take a look at the cold air that was aloft in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...in the minus teens Celsius at 700mb and in the minus twenties Celsius at 500mb! That would be pretty crazy for mid-January. I just can't imagine getting anything worse than what we just witnessed, unless we were to get a category 3 or 4 hurricane which moved at a speed similar to Irene. ORH likely F5 in 1953 that tracked 46 miles shouldn't be ignored if the short lived BDL 1979 tor is mentioned. The BDL tor was really weird for the setup and time of year, but it was quick. ORH in 1953 at F5 tracking 46 miles might not be anything we ever see again for another 200-300 years...BDL might be similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 ORH likely F5 in 1953 that tracked 46 miles shouldn't be ignored if the short lived BDL 1979 tor is mentioned. The BDL tor was really weird for the setup and time of year, but it was quick. ORH in 1953 at F5 tracking 46 miles might not be anything we ever see again for another 200-300 years...BDL might be similar too. I just left the ORH tornado out b/c sure it was anomalous strength wise but in did occur during the time of month when you're more likely to see a tornado in SNE so I kind of just looked at it at that and ignored the strength...maybe not the best thing to do I suppose. I just included the BDL tornado (ignoring the strength as well just to be consistent with what I did for the ORH twister) b/c it occurred during a time of year where tornadoes really don't happen here. In fact going off the top of my head here but I think across SNE there have only been 3 or 4 tornadoes that have occurred during the month of October. I know there were two tornadoes on October 24th...year might be 1955? those occurred either in MA or CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I just left the ORH tornado out b/c sure it was anomalous strength wise but in did occur during the time of month when you're more likely to see a tornado in SNE so I kind of just looked at it at that and ignored the strength...maybe not the best thing to do I suppose. I just included the BDL tornado (ignoring the strength as well just to be consistent with what I did for the ORH twister) b/c it occurred during a time of year where tornadoes really don't happen here. In fact going off the top of my head here but I think across SNE there have only been 3 or 4 tornadoes that have occurred during the month of October. I know there were two tornadoes on October 24th...year might be 1955? those occurred either in MA or CT. I think the ORH tornado was more anomalous than this snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I think the ORH tornado was more anomalous than this snowstorm. I definitely won't disagree with that. The setup that day was about as classic as you will see here and was probably only matched by 7/10/89 and 6/1/11...5/31/98 we were just east of the more favorable setup. I guess it all depends on what perspective you're putting this situation in. For this to occur in October is quite anomalous and we've never seen anything like it. The ORH tornado, while the benchmark for tornadoes here it's not like we haven't seen strong/violent tornadoes across SNE (F3+). There have been a total of 20 tornadoes rated F3 or higher across CT/MA/VT/NH. If we're including BDL/ORH tornadoes we have to include the 10/3/70 ORH F3 which tracked from ORH county to Middlesex county. That was pretty crazy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I definitely won't disagree with that. The setup that day was about as classic as you will see here and was probably only matched by 7/10/89 and 6/1/11...5/31/98 we were just east of the more favorable setup. I guess it all depends on what perspective you're putting this situation in. For this to occur in October is quite anomalous and we've never seen anything like it. The ORH tornado, while the benchmark for tornadoes here it's not like we haven't seen strong/violent tornadoes across SNE (F3+). There have been a total of 20 tornadoes rated F3 or higher across CT/MA/VT/NH. If we're including BDL/ORH tornadoes we have to include the 10/3/70 ORH F3 which tracked from ORH county to Middlesex county. That was pretty crazy too. I don't include F3s in the comparison of the ORH tornado of '53...it wasn't an F3 and likely might have been an F5...it was at the very least and extremely strong F4...the strongest TOR New England has ever seen and it tracked for 46 miles. Its different from a short lived F3 or borderline F4 that tracks for 5-10 miles. It was a wedge that looked like the plains as per the few photos we have. It was def more anomalous than any other tornadoes in New England. Likely more anomalous than this storm, though this storm comes close IMHO....it was obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I don't include F3s in the comparison of the ORH tornado of '53...it wasn't an F3 and likely might have been an F5...it was at the very least and extremely strong F4...the strongest TOR New England has ever seen and it tracked for 46 miles. Its different from a short lived F3 or borderline F4 that tracks for 5-10 miles. It was a wedge that looked like the plains as per the few photos we have. It was def more anomalous than any other tornadoes in New England. Likely more anomalous than this storm, though this storm comes close IMHO....it was obscene. Yeah to have a tornado of that intensity track as far as it did is pretty insane, hell, that would even be considered pretty insane out in the Plains and parts of the OV/SE. ORH from the pics and all should have been an F5. While we can only see pics of the damage and of course structures back then were probably poor many accounts from people involved with meteorology and surveying back then even stated it should have been a F5. Some even believe the BDL tornado should have been a 5 considering there were at least 6 homes completely wiped off their foundations. Like I said though I definitely won't argue with the ORH tornado being more anomalous...certainly a great debate. One thing I should consider too is taking this storm into perspective...if this happened another month from now would we have seen the same catastrophic results? If you push that setup in '53 ahead another month even two months you're still probably going to see that occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Yeah to have a tornado of that intensity track as far as it did is pretty insane, hell, that would even be considered pretty insane out in the Plains and parts of the OV/SE. ORH from the pics and all should have been an F5. While we can only see pics of the damage and of course structures back then were probably poor many accounts from people involved with meteorology and surveying back then even stated it should have been a F5. Some even believe the BDL tornado should have been a 5 considering there were at least 6 homes completely wiped off their foundations. Like I said though I definitely won't argue with the ORH tornado being more anomalous...certainly a great debate. One thing I should consider too is taking this storm into perspective...if this happened another month from now would we have seen the same catastrophic results? If you push that setup in '53 ahead another month even two months you're still probably going to see that occur. This Oct storm a month from now would def not have the same results...but I do not think it makes it more anomalous than something like the ORH tornado or the '79 BDL tornado. Its close IMHO...but not quite there. Those events were sickening. This one was too, but I gather this is a 1 in 300 year type event while the ORH tornado is probably like a 1 in 700-1000 year event. I am always careful to place odds like that on any weather event, but it was so obscene and never even gathered from word of mouth in the 1600s and 1700s...there are accounts of tornadoes but nothing that would imply an ORH tornado strength. That was a plains wedge that tracked nearly 50 miles...maybe it was as frequent as a 1 in 400 year event...not sure. Its hard to say. Ekster would probably be able to say it better than me as he very well versed in tornadoes, but I recall him saying it was like once in 500 years when we discussed it previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 This Oct storm a month from now would def not have the same results...but I do not think it makes it more anomalous than something like the ORH tornado or the '79 BDL tornado. Its close IMHO...but not quite there. Those events were sickening. This one was too, but I gather this is a 1 in 300 year type event while the ORH tornado is probably like a 1 in 700-1000 year event. I am always careful to place odds like that on any weather event, but it was so obscene and never even gathered from word of mouth in the 1600s and 1700s...there are accounts of tornadoes but nothing that would imply an ORH tornado strength. That was a plains wedge that tracked nearly 50 miles...maybe it was as frequent as a 1 in 400 year event...not sure. Its hard to say. Ekster would probably be able to say it better than me as he very well versed in tornadoes, but I recall him saying it was like once in 500 years when we discussed it previously. It is quite difficult to say which are the greater odds, especially since we really don't have reliable data that goes back very far. We do have accounts and such of winter storms and tornadoes that go back well into the 1600's and 1700's but there really is no way of knowing how reliable the sources are. Obviously what we do know is these three events are probably the most 3 anomalous events you will ever see here. Each certainly has to be something like a 1 in 400-500 year type of deal though...perhaps higher. I do recall Ekster saying the ORH tornadoes was likely a 1 in 500 year event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Its its a once in a lifetime event for the amount of area covered by at least 6 inches of snow. 6 inches plus from Southern VA to Maine before Halloween? Unprecedented for sure. I had at least 3 inches of snow in October here only one other time in my life. October 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Lol at the ssh it storm and indignation now, AIIT NBD when it was us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 Lol at the ssh it storm and indignation now, AIIT NBD when it was us Country mice vs city mice... Although from what I have read damage is worse and more widespread than Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Country mice vs city mice... Although from what I have read damage is worse and more widespread than Irene Yea but why did it take up to ten days out here? Now the AG is involved, guess that is what happens when the Pols get hit in the balls themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 They finally took our suggestion to have the NGuard work with CLP, geezus idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Yea but why did it take up to ten days out here? Now the AG is involved, guess that is what happens when the Pols get hit in the balls themselves makes sense.. hadn't thought of that.. hartford area got hit a lot worse this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Ryan, I can't stand that everyone is calling this a "freak" or "surprise" storm, and that is why CL&P was not prepared. We knew about this storm a week in advance. NOT a "SURPRISE" storm! Lol not as excited about still being in the dark and sleeping in the freezing cold!!! But yeah as of friday early am or Thursday night it was clear this would be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I think we should name it the Snowliage Storm.... Agreed. Like "snowicane" for the February 25-26, 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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