ArtRosen Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Which comes first? ENSO or AO? Which controls which? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I'm not sure I understand why either would be the case. My take.....I think they're both subject to external forcing from the Geomagnetic Sun, and that the Geomag Sun is the principle driver of what many incorrectly assume to be "naturally chaotic" indices, such as ENSO, AO, AAO, so on and so forth. In turn significant longer scale climate changes can be caused by alterations of these indices through changes in albedo such as snow-ice cover, equatorial cloud cover, etc. Reflected shortwave energy can vary more than many comprehend, over longer timescales too...by numerous W/m^2 on decadal and centennial scales. I think more research needs to be done on this. If it is found that these indices are not naturally chaotic, but rather are subject to external forcing from the Sun, the anthropogenic warming theory alone will need to be completely re-analyzed in tandem with the new line of knowledge, because radiative forcing properties and their role in temperature change once thought to manifest heavily in positive feedback would no longer be thought to do so (they haven't thus far). There'll be problems there, but we'll soon enough determine the gas isn't well dispersed, reasoing as even in large cities Co2 can vary by 75ppm or more from day to day, and has been measured to do so. It would also explain the correlation between the Sun AA-index and global temperature. What happens during El Nino? OLR decreases as a result of reflected SW in equatorial regions, thats certainly not a positive feedback to a warmer state, or if there is one it isn't showing up due to the differing wind patterns in different ENSO events that result in increased convection, if one argues it is the westerly winds themselves. rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 obviously the sun controls both of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 is the Geomag Sun different from the regular sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Neither "controls" the other as far as anyone knows. Its often that there are partial feedbacks but other factors override the ENSO or AO factor. We just do not know at this point. We know weaker enso favors more blocking in the winter...but I'm not sure this thread specified the time of the year. Its likely that the two do not have a big relationship as far as we know...but there is def a mild connection as per correlations on the strength of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 is the Geomag Sun different from the regular sun? Geomag activity is def different than TSI and other sun activity...they tend to try and go in tandem, but they are far from a linear relationship and its often enough that we see TSI explode but geomag activity stays low or vice versa...geomag activity seems to have a good correlation with the AO, but its a small sample and not very good data to begin with. Very little is known about the geomag activity as it related to our weather and one of the frontiers of meteorology. But it def seems like it could have an affects...esp in the upper atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Neither "controls" the other as far as anyone knows. Its often that there are partial feedbacks but other factors override the ENSO or AO factor. We just do not know at this point. We know weaker enso favors more blocking in the winter...but I'm not sure this thread specified the time of the year. Its likely that the two do not have a big relationship as far as we know...but there is def a mild connection as per correlations on the strength of ENSO. Are you referring to the relationship between the AO and ENSO, or of the AO/ENSO to the Geomag Sun? If it is the latter, I disagree, I think it's clear that ENSO is subject to and subsequently "driven" predominately by imbalances in equatorial pressure as a result of changes in geomagnetism...which can sometimes (but infrequently) result from a deep -AO, but it is often achieved through some other mechanism that we have little understanding of. I'm a firm believer that a -AO phase is on the same "team" as La Nina, if that makes any sense, and that deep blocking the year before, if the Geomag Sun is favorable, will always lead to a La Nina through changes in the wind budget and atmospheric pressure resulting from such, and it has always done so at least to this point. When the AO went positive last winter we saw what happened to the La Nina. As for Geomag's Driving influence, I've been following this stuff obsessively for as long as I've known how to, and is why felt there was zero chance of an El Nino this winter despite subsurface anomalies that were quite warm as a result of thermal backlash. I started a thread on a certain scientist's "super nino" forecast entirely based on subsurface anomalies, rather than processes in the atmosphere that would indirectly throw all that heat out into the atmosphere in a matter of months. Obviously the changes in pressure will alter the wind budget at all levels of the atmosphere, and cloud cover anomalies, thats all one needs to know IMO. In terms of the AO and NAO, the Geomagnetic Sun correlates very well to the strength of polar blocking in the northern hemisphere, and is the likely culprit for the record blocking seen since the middle of year 2009 which is coincidently when the solar charged-wind dropped off. The solar min previously in 2008 featured a higher wind. Example I think would be ENSO correcting for PDO influence which my hypothesis is that the PDO, AMO, and IOD are processes of overturning ocean circulation patterns, but that the ENSO state and it's effects on these are subject to external forcing indirectly, the atmosphere is subject to external forcing so it would be an indirect transfer. ENSO in the 1990s was almost at a constant Nino, and strong Ninos were a dmoinating force over strong Ninas for most of past 25 years until just recently when the geomag sun quieted down, since 2006 there have been 6 "cool" episodes and 2 "warm" episodes. El Nino is a signal of energy accumulation, visa-vera for La Nina, and the frequency of either ENSO phase over time results in a change in the overall energy budget,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 is the Geomag Sun different from the regular sun? I'll try not to regurgitate what ORH_Wxman just posted, but it varies differently for sure, and doesn't add any "heat" to the lower atmosphere directly because it isn't exactly the same type of "radiation" (if at all) seen in SW influx in the visible or UV spectrums, but rather it is charged particles that charge the upper atmosphere and interact with Earth's magnetic field, and is how alterations in the interplantary magnetic field (IMF) occur and operate. The AO, ENSO, PDO, etc all show correlation to the Geomagnetic Sun, ENSO and the AO especially. I don't know whether or not the change in equatorial pressure is a direct result of some unknown mechanism or influence from the AO phase also driven by geomag, and I don't think the scientiific field knows either. But it's interesting stuff to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 i just like saying Geomag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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