boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 Is it just me or are actual temps today a good bit colder than forecast - 38.2 currently (noon) against a forecast hi of 49 for noon (max 51)? Looks like NWS was expecting it to be right around 50 by noon. Currently ~40 here in Boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Is it just me or are actual temps today a good bit colder than forecast - 38.2 currently (noon) against a forecast hi of 49 for noon (max 51)? http://www.wundergro...weekday=Tuesday http://www.wundergro...ast?query=80124 Yep. And yesterday the highs for today were forecast to be in the mid 50s. Often the case, as the timing with these cold fronts can be tough to judge in advance. It's often faster than models show, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 12Z NAM a bit stronger than 6Z 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 12Z NAM a bit stronger than 6Z 6Z 12Z Really smelled like snow this morning after the initial FROPA... now it's crystal clear and snow is the last thing you'd expect. Hope the NAM verifies! If the sun stays out much longer we'll have a little bit of work to do to change precip to snow. Last week's storm brought down 100% of our front yard leaves, and our backyard leaves (different kind of course) are still largely green. 50 feet, two seasons! Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 18z NAM is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 Really smelled like snow this morning after the initial FROPA... now it's crystal clear and snow is the last thing you'd expect. Hope the NAM verifies! If the sun stays out much longer we'll have a little bit of work to do to change precip to snow. Last week's storm brought down 100% of our front yard leaves, and our backyard leaves (different kind of course) are still largely green. 50 feet, two seasons! Weird. Still a pretty thick stratus layer over Boulder with the temperature at ~39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Really smelled like snow this morning after the initial FROPA... now it's crystal clear and snow is the last thing you'd expect. Hope the NAM verifies! If the sun stays out much longer we'll have a little bit of work to do to change precip to snow. Last week's storm brought down 100% of our front yard leaves, and our backyard leaves (different kind of course) are still largely green. 50 feet, two seasons! Weird. Funny how different things can be across the urban corridor. We have been socked in with clouds all day in Boulder. They've actually thinned out a little since the morning but not a minute of sunshine. Yeah what he said. ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 HPC Day 1 Snow Accumulation Probabilities >4 Inches >8 Inches >12 Inches PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 412 PM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011 VALID 00Z WED NOV 02 2011 - 00Z SAT NOV 05 2011 DAY 1... ...WYOMING...COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY TUES IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TOWARD A VERY ACTIVE SRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH... AS UPPER DYNAMICS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GRT BASIN. THIS POTENT AND ACTIVE FEATURE WILL ROLL THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED. IN FACT... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF EARLY WED AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN CO. AS THIS OCCURS ALOFT... A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A MASSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN IDEAL PATTERN FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC HVY SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS SRN WY/MOST OF CO INTO THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUES THROUGH MOST OF WED. HPC CONTINUES TO REALLY PREFER A COMBINATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS MASS FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE FCST... WHICH INCLUDES THE CRITICAL QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES. THE HVY SNOW ON WED SHIFTS TO CO AND SRN WY/WRN NE... AS DIGGING SRN STREAM TROUGH W/ SOLID JET DYNAMICS AND MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS CO ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT AND ERLY/ENERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WIDENING ZONE OF 850-650MB FRONTOGENESIS LAYER FOR POSSIBLE BANDING SNOW AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES EARLY WED... SOLID AXIS OVER CO FROM 03Z/2 TO 09Z/2... BEFORE EXPANDING DEFORMATION ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE SERN TERRAIN OF WY AND SPREADING DOWN THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 a very impressive UVV signal for later tonight in northern CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 a very impressive UVV signal for later tonight in northern CO That is actually a mountain wave aloft...likely a vertically propagating wave But yeah, it is going to be a fun storm to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Mostly snow with a little rain mixed in right now here in Boulder Canyon at ~6000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Picked up .41 today of moisture. Turned to snow at the end but didn't stick, kind of disappointing but I always knew it could end up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Light rain in Highlands Ranch, south Denver metro for those not from Denver. Mostly snow with a little rain mixed in right now here in Boulder Canyon at ~6000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 It's currently snowing at a very solid clip here in Fort Collins, and this time there's a bit of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Dumping here now. Ground is covered. We actually just saw some lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 friend reporting a mix of rain/snow at CU right now in Boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ROCKIES OF SRN WY AND NRN/CNTRL CO...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 020113Z - 020615Z BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL DEVELOP FROM N TO S OVER THE ROCKIES OF SRN WY AND NRN/CNTRL CO...AS WELL THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH AN ATTENDANT 250-MB JET STREAK FEATURING SWLY CORE WINDS AROUND 120 KT OVER CO. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE AUGMENTED BY DOWNSTREAM DCVA...COUPLED WITH A NNWWD-SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INDUCE A STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALLOW WSW-ENE-ORIENTED SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING SLANTWISE CONVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THESE SNOW BANDS...HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. MEANWHILE...THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE RISES TO THE E/NE. IN TURN...ADIABATIC COOLING AND AN ASSOCIATED MESO-RIDGE AND BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH IS ALREADY BEING MANIFESTED IN THE PRONOUNCED NLY SURGE AND PRESSURE RISES OBSERVED INVOF DENVER. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBFREEZING AIR IN SERN WY TO QUICKLY SURGE SWD JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND SUPPORT SNOW...WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR PARCELS WITH TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FROM FORT COLLINS TO DENVER AFTER 05Z. FARTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN/E-CNTRL CO...SNOWFALL RATES MAY ONLY REACH 1 IN/HR. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MESO-RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE NLY TO NELY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO GENERATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 06Z. THE SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE TAPERING OFF FROM N TO S WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..COHEN.. 11/02/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 First few flakes just starting to mix in here just west of Englewood. I drive everyone at work crazy with my enjoyment of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Snow in Highlands Ranch. Light rain in Highlands Ranch, south Denver metro for those not from Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 It already snowed one inch or more. It really came in quick after 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 We've got a snow/sleet mix here. Sidewalks are getting slushy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Dumping here now. Ground is covered. We actually just saw some lightning! Just got 2 friends from the Front Range, both from Longmont, reporting Thundersnow. I am slightly jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 First few flakes just starting to mix in here just west of Englewood. I drive everyone at work crazy with my enjoyment of snow Never know when to hide it vs. just celebrate my inner weather geek. Then again, people at work do ask me what I think will happen. I should tell them something like "cows will fall from the sky..." Almost ripping here, about 4 miles north of KAPA. 1" in the past hour, changed from rain to snow about 9:10. From the NWS discussions wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder here the next hour or two as the front and lift sink southward. Enjoy! Off to bed, gotta get up early and shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I think we have 2 to 3 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Had a horribly long day at work so just now able to focus on this. I have some light snows falling here in Monument with a little bit in the way of wind. There is a little coating on the cars so far, and that's about it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Denver with +SN... KDEN 020423Z 01014KT 1/4SM R35L/2600V3500FT +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M02 A3014 6"+ down around Cheyenne... 0958 PM SNOW 2 NNE CHEYENNE 41.17N 104.78W 11/01/2011 M6.5 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 Near whiteout conditions right now in Westminster. Strong winds have really picked up in the past hour, and moderate to heavy snow. Everything is completely covered, about 1" or so thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 2, 2011 Author Share Posted November 2, 2011 I'd say we're up to 3-4" right now. Still DUMPING. I-25 closed from MM 279-309 (About Greeley to the WY border)\ 9th & Pearl in Boulder webcam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 2-4" here in Boulder proper depending on whether you look at the grass or concrete. It is coming down hard. I love it when snow attacks you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.