Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Looks like it's time to bring on the Second Season, as this Saturday is already looking interesting--and this comes on the 6-year anniversary weekend of the Evansville, IN tornadoes. Excerpt from this afternoon's ILX forecast discussion: LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE DIGGING OF THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SO NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN UNTIL WED NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WHICH IS WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE LOCATED AT. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A CUTOFF LOW AT SOME POINT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISS VLY...PROBABLY SOUTH OF I-70. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT PCPN WILL REMAIN LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISS VLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF ALL THIS BUT EXPECTING PCPN SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. SYSTEM LOOKS AS IT COULD BE VERY DYNAMIC SO EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS WELL. TOO SOON TO TELL...BUT COULD BE AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE SOME PLACE ON SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO PCPN...CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. AUTEN/HUETTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Jinxed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Jinxed it Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Jinxed it Yeah thanks Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 lol @ any office that put stock into the perfect GFS dream runs right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 lol @ any office that put stock into the perfect GFS dream runs right away. lol @ IWX then ... VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING 80 KNOTS AT AND BELOW 850 MB. SEVERE WEATHER IS PLAUSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF DIURNAL TIMING IS FAVORABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Nothing wrong with discussing potential especially when you have multiple models showing a similar thing. Definitely looks interesting but I'd like to get it in the 3-4 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Nothing wrong with discussing potential especially when you have multiple models showing a similar thing. Definitely looks interesting but I'd like to get it in the 3-4 day window. Yeah I have no problem personally with this thread being created. Not sure about everyone's superstitious crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Yeah I have no problem personally with this thread being created. Not sure about everyone's superstitious crap. Call me crazy but I am superstitious, and I have noticed a pattern as of late with severe weather and thread starters. Maybe its coincidence or superstition but I say next potential someone else starts the thread. I mean we have superstition sometimes with respect to Winter storm threads why not have the same for severe weather threads. Just my 2 cents, though I think a few others know what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Call me crazy but I am superstitious, and I have noticed a pattern of late with severe weather and thread starters. Maybe its coincidence or superstition but I say next potential someone else starts the thread. I mean we have superstition sometimes with respect to Winter storm threads why not have the same for severe weather threads. Just my 2 cents, though I think a few others know what I'm saying. I've kinda noticed this as well, although I didn't really want to mention it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Superstition and thread creation is a bunch of junk. I bet if we waited to start a thread one day in advance of every major storm threat the "success" rate of said threads would be pretty high. Personally I am all for starting threads early since we learn from both the failed threats and the successful ones. Every "event" is a learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Call me crazy but I am superstitious, and I have noticed a pattern as of late with severe weather and thread starters. Maybe its coincidence or superstition but I say next potential someone else starts the thread. I mean we have superstition sometimes with respect to Winter storm threads why not have the same for severe weather threads. Just my 2 cents, though I think a few others know what I'm saying. I think because it's almost November, and people are in winter mode, there is not much concern about severe weather superstition or the sort, but I understand what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Superstition and thread creation is a bunch of junk. I bet if we waited to start a thread one day in advance of every major storm threat the "success" rate of said threads would be pretty high. Personally I am all for starting threads early since we learn from both the failed threats and the successful ones. Every "event" is a learning experience. Has nothing to do with when the thread is started, though I wouldn't minded if we had waited another day but that's another discussion for another time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I don't think anyone was actually being superstitious this time around. Just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Superstition and thread creation is a bunch of junk. I bet if we waited to start a thread one day in advance of every major storm threat the "success" rate of said threads would be pretty high. Personally I am all for starting threads early since we learn from both the failed threats and the successful ones. Every "event" is a learning experience. I agree here. While I agree its a little early to really nail anything down on this set up. At the same time time I feel that starting the discussion is probably more important than actually being right. I see this as a "learning opportunity". A least that is how I approach it. I also enjoy seeing and hearing the different opinions on the matter. I mean this is weather after all. That is what makes this so exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Mid-range models have been very consistent in delivering a powerful surge of mid and upper level jet energy for next weekend. I think it's pretty safe to say we're gonna have a pretty potent storm system evolve with that. With such a large scale evolution of energy it looks pretty safe to say there should be something very interesting over the central CONUS next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Who knows, that day 3/4 wave could turn out weaker than expected and we would be in the danger zone again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Day 3-4 wave is strong on the Euro, moisture return is insufficient for the day 5-6 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 moisture return is insufficient for the day 5-6 event. Essentially maintaining what it has been showing all along. Despite general agreement on the trough's position/intensity in earlier runs, the Euro never really had the moisture return the GFS had in those beast mode runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 GFS is bringing 850 mb dewpoints of 10C up to St. Louis but low levels look pretty dry. It's becoming pretty apparent that moisture return probably isn't going to be what it could've been. The question now is whether we can get something marginally good enough to support severe wx. System still has great dynamics although best dynamics are divorced from best moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I posted on the other thread - didn't know where everyone was at Been watching the Sunday system for a long time now - models have been showing the deep low scenario. Rich moisture is lacking and instability - still some time to watch it. Maybe the second system will prime the third one next week as the cold front may stall out over Arkansas then move back as a warm front. Third system arrives on Tuesday or so - perhaps more to work with. I did run the analogs on the Sunday system - this came up One thing is for certain - November is going to be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 One thing is for certain - November is going to be active. That's what I like to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 ....With such a large scale evolution of energy it looks pretty safe to say there should be something very interesting over the central CONUS next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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