KEITH L.I Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I don't think a mild thanksgiving means anything as far as January and February go. Remember 2004? we barely saw a flake until mid January and then bang, we had a great 6 weeks with 4 really good storms. we barely saw a flake last year until Dec 26th..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 yeah until the 2000s December snows were pretty rare, maybe a couple inches. But many winters like 86-87, 93-94, winter really didn't get going until January. we barely saw a flake last year until Dec 26th..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1823-happy-met-winter/ And this was Dec 1st last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 A few good responses in here in the last few posts. And I thought a warm November more often than not leads to a cold December (not saying there is a connection, just that that's what the data shows.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Last November finished almost a degree above normal and November 2009 finished well above normal at +4. I wouldn't mind a repeat of any of those winters. BTW, November 2007 finished 1.7 degrees below normal with a trace of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Last November finished almost a degree above normal and November 2009 finished well above normal at +4. I wouldn't mind a repeat of any of those winters. BTW, November 2007 finished 1.7 degrees below normal with a trace of snow... I made a post awhile back but can't find it right now. Basically it showed that virtually all of our snowy winters since 1960 had a mild November. I'm definitely not worried about warmth at this time of year, talk to me in a few weeks, and if we still have no blocking showing up, then it's time to get concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Last November finished almost a degree above normal and November 2009 finished well above normal at +4. I wouldn't mind a repeat of any of those winters. BTW, November 2007 finished 1.7 degrees below normal with a trace of snow... November is not a good indicator of the coming winter over the last 15 or 20 years it has warmed faster than any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 November is not a good indicator of the coming winter over the last 15 or 20 years it has warmed faster than any other month. Its more the pattern thats causing the warmth that you have to look at and not the warmth itself. There were huge differences between November 2001 and November 2003, both were quite warm, but one exhibited signs in the pattern that things were on the way to changing and the other did not. This year there are mixed signals to an extent, the models want to clearly turn the NAO negative, the AO not so much. The polar vortex is not present anywhere near Canada either as some Mets such as LC, DT, Steve D have been saying. So right now I don't know what to expect as its a pretty mixed bag of signals we're getting. In November 2009 and 2003 we had relatively strong indications things were quickly improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The polar vortex is not present anywhere near Canada either as some Mets such as LC, DT, Steve D have been saying. So right now I don't know what to expect as its a pretty mixed bag of signals we're getting. DT (from a post yesterday) seems pretty bullish on a cold december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Loop this and check out the cold air transport itself from Russia straight into the Northwest US. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Loop this and check out the cold air transport itself from Russia straight into the Northwest US. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html The pacific looks absolutely atrocious in the long range. I do like the fact the Atlantic shows a -NAO. Until we see a flip to a -EPO pattern and get some PNA ridging any cold shots will be transient. The good news is we still have lots of time, models certainly have been inconsistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 DT (from a post yesterday) seems pretty bullish on a cold december He was also bullish on a pattern change mid-month about a week ago. I don't remember what we were seeing on the models in November last year in terms of the SE ridge, but it certainly looks like it wants to hold mighty strong so I think there could be some cause for concern for snow lovers IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Everyone got spoiled by the October snow storm! It is only November 9th... This was last november .. So far with yesterday's above average warmth this is currently the picture Unless you are in Northern New England you are below normal for the month so far.. We have not even reached Met Winter yet which begins on December 1st.... Last year we had a stronger La Nina then what we will have this year... Let winter get here before we start posting all these winter is over posts or I be concerned if i was a snowlover.. Most of us are already above normal in the snowfall category already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Its more the pattern thats causing the warmth that you have to look at and not the warmth itself. There were huge differences between November 2001 and November 2003, both were quite warm, but one exhibited signs in the pattern that things were on the way to changing and the other did not. This year there are mixed signals to an extent, the models want to clearly turn the NAO negative, the AO not so much. The polar vortex is not present anywhere near Canada either as some Mets such as LC, DT, Steve D have been saying. So right now I don't know what to expect as its a pretty mixed bag of signals we're getting. In November 2009 and 2003 we had relatively strong indications things were quickly improving. True,but patterns can and do change rapidly.Look at what happened this past winter here after the late JAN snowdump,the pattern changed rapidly and winter was pretty much done with at that point with the snow.(the cold did last a couple of more weeks) THe AO/NAO have been positive since mid August and look to continue somewhat longer,but eventually both will go negative and rather sharply when they do and stay there for an extended period. You have to remember as well we are in new territory with this NINA event compared to the past 40+ years.NYC reached 100+ on multiple days for the second consecutive year for the first time since the mid 1930s.That does not correlate with a disasterous warm/dry winter around here. I am not saying it is Impossible to have a warm winter,but IMHO given what we have been through,is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 True,but patterns can and do change rapidly.Look at what happened this past winter here after the late JAN snowdump,the pattern changed rapidly and winter was pretty much done with at that point with the snow.(the cold did last a couple of more weeks) THe AO/NAO have been positive since mid August and look to continue somewhat longer,but eventually both will go negative and rather sharply when they do and stay there for an extended period. You have to remember as well we are in new territory with this NINA event compared to the past 40+ years.NYC reached 100+ on multiple days for the second consecutive year for the first time since the mid 1930s.That does not correlate with a disasterous warm/dry winter around here. I am not saying it is Impossible to have a warm winter,but IMHO given what we have been through,is highly unlikely. I agree with you about the coming winter. Even though the nao and ao have been positive for almost 3 months our temperatures have been close to normal, so when the they both go negative then we're in for some cold times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The pacific looks absolutely atrocious in the long range. I do like the fact the Atlantic shows a -NAO. Until we see a flip to a -EPO pattern and get some PNA ridging any cold shots will be transient. The good news is we still have lots of time, models certainly have been inconsistent... Thats true, if someone showed me the last few runs of the GFS at 200-300mb over the Pacific and asked me what I thought the QBO index was I'd guess about -20 or -25, it sure does not look like the sort of Pac Jet one would expect given the current QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Thats true, if someone showed me the last few runs of the GFS at 200-300mb over the Pacific and asked me what I thought the QBO index was I'd guess about -20 or -25, it sure does not look like the sort of Pac Jet one would expect given the current QBO. Very true, I think we are headed in the right direction...it's all about babysteps. Canada gets brutally cold next week so we can build on the snowpack. Once the -PNA relaxes we should be able to drive some very cold air into the east. We should have some impressive episodes of blocking once again in the altlantic given the -QBO, quiet sun, and weak Nina. With all that said we still need the pacific to cooperate, that IMO will be the wildcard this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 The Euro ensembles certainly show massive changes in the long range. We establish cross polar flow as an -EPO pattern develops. Also looks like a west based -NAO is trying to form. The Pv splits into 3 pieces with one sitting right over central Canada. This ensures that our northern neighbors will turn frigid and build up a snowpack. If the models are right these are important changes. Babysteps people..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 It's 10 degrees warmer in Central Park than in Jacksonville, FL at this hour. 60 in midtown. Muggy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 If this deep of a mixed layer verifies for Friday, we'll probably see gusts over 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 heights seem to be forecasted to rise in the polar regions, sending the chill south. to my weenie amateur forecasting eye, things are looking good for early dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 heights seem to be forecasted to rise in the polar regions, sending the chill south. to my weenie amateur forecasting eye, things are looking good for early dec? Note the difference b/t the Euro and GFS positioning of the NAO block, and its upstream effects on the SE ridge in the Eastern US. We do NOT want what the GFS shows -- an east based blocking feature which will not be enough to offset the poor pacific signal (-PNA). However with the Euro, we've got a west based -NAO block, and this can sustain cold air in the Northeast regardless of the PNA. The first H5 map is what we want going forward into december. It's also what I think will occur BTW; there's strong analog support for the cold making it into the Northeast and even parts of the upper Southeast probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Note the difference b/t the Euro and GFS positioning of the NAO block, and its upstream effects on the SE ridge in the Eastern US. We do NOT want what the GFS shows -- an east based blocking feature which will not be enough to offset the poor pacific signal (-PNA). However with the Euro, we've got a west based -NAO block, and this can sustain cold air in the Northeast regardless of the PNA. The first H5 map is what we want going forward into december. It's also what I think will occur BTW; there's strong analog support for the cold making it into the Northeast and even parts of the upper Southeast probably. I am not worried about an east based NAO this winter. I don't see anything but west based blocking in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 time sensitive... look at the cu development on the watchungs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 ^Very hazy here and you can see the CU just off to my west. Cool development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Should note its hazy, but the sun is out and it's torching out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 ^Very hazy here and you can see the CU just off to my west. Cool development. The haze was the worst I've ever seen it in Newark last night. The smog from all the industry in the area was so thick that it actually left a nasty film on my car as I was driving on the turnpike. It actually burned my eyes and made me choke a little bit. Very strong inversion last night. When I got home it was as clear as anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The haze was the worst I've ever seen it in Newark last night. The smog from all the industry in the area was so thick that it actually left a nasty film on my car as I was driving on the turnpike. It actually burned my eyes and made me choke a little bit. Very strong inversion last night. When I got home it was as clear as anything. On foggy nights that co-generation plant makes you sick when traveling on the Turnpike. BTW, Freakin' 67 degrees at Central Park! A lot of mets busted low on the forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Doesn't take much to bring those monthly departures from normal up fast; KNYC now +0.1 for November...(through the 9th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 front just came through after a high just shy of 70. Dark clouds moving through with a lot of wind.. temp is dropping like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.