TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 We should in transitioning to a much colder pattern overall by Thanksgiving week. Cold will begin dumping into the Plains and Great Lakes/sern Canada initially, with some resistance on the east coast. By week 3, we could have a pretty decent cross polar flow going. Based upon current proggs and analog support, I feel confident in saying the end fo November into December will be a very active time in terms of cold/storminess. Thetrials IMO is onto something regarding the MECL for the end of November; if we have blocking across the top with the MJO circulating into phases 8-1 by that time frame, I'd watch the Nov 23-30 period for a possible major storm in the Eastern US. Doesn't mean it'll be snow, in fact I think this first storm to get the colder pattern going will likely be a big snow maker for the interior Northeast.Then, all systems go for a rockin December, through the Christmas period. :drunk: :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 its too bad the Canadian is such a bad model, because it refuses to see the SE ridge and has a nice vort coming down from Canada at the end of the run that would be fun for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A few beautiful days in Nov and some here are worried about the winter? RELAX!! I am not worried a bit about this upcoming winter.This past summer and autumn is working out very nicely,couldnt have scripted it any better.The NAO/AO were both positive for Sept/October and will be for part of this month,thats exactly where we want it.The atmosphere and teleconnections are like Joe Montana marching down the field late in the 4th quarter to lead his team to victory.No worries. Edit.Joe Montana was the QB of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas city Chiefs.He is regarded by some.including me to be the best QB in the history of the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I expect a lot of volatility and more record breaking events....whether that means warm, cold, snow, rain, ice or something else who knows A few beautiful days in Nov and some here are worried about the winter? RELAX!! I am not worried a bit about this upcoming winter.This past summer and autumn is working out very nicely,couldnt have scripted it any better.The NAO/AO were both positive for Sept/October and will be for part of this month,thats exactly where we want it.The atmosphere and teleconnections are like Joe Montana marching down the field late in the 4th quarter to lead his team to victory.No worries. Edit.Joe Montana was the QB of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas city Chiefs.He is regarded by some.including me to be the best QB in the history of the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Gonna be honest here, this pattern is terrible. Luckily it's November. I like the end of the month storm, not as a threat but as a pattern changer. Hopefully that will rip the heights up into Greenland and the mean trough over the West should roll east by Dec 5 or so. Meaningful snow threats will be here by Dec 10-15 if my general pattern idea is correct. But the big one could come the last week of Dec under favorable blocking anomalies and a possible PNA spike. I like a hybrid/redeveloper in this pattern that ejects from the SW US and then towards the MA. All heresay at this point--but I never forecast specific long range events. In this case I am slightly more confident than usual...enough to introduce my thoughts on how this will play out. Pretty much in agreement with Tom, too. Not sure if he agrees on the last week of Dec idea. earthlight says no snow any time soon. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 A few beautiful days in Nov and some here are worried about the winter? RELAX!! I am not worried a bit about this upcoming winter.This past summer and autumn is working out very nicely,couldnt have scripted it any better.The NAO/AO were both positive for Sept/October and will be for part of this month,thats exactly where we want it.The atmosphere and teleconnections are like Joe Montana marching down the field late in the 4th quarter to lead his team to victory.No worries. Edit.Joe Montana was the QB of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas city Chiefs.He is regarded by some.including me to be the best QB in the history of the NFL. We've still got 4-5 weeks before we really need to get worried. Bottom line is some sort of change needs to occur by about the 15th of December, most of the time if you don't get some sort of large scale change by then you're usually in trouble because rarely is there a strong reversal of the overall winter pattern beyond that point. You can still get a 3 week or so run later in the winter that is abnormal to the general pattern, we saw that in 1999-2000 in later January and obviously 1995-96 with the thaw for awhile in January.. We've seen the mid December period be a very classic period before for reversals, both good and bad....1993 began reverting cold around mid-December, 1996 began reverting warm around 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 This is why strong blocking is going to be extremely important once again because the pattern for the next couple weeks as shown per the models is typical nina. The lows cut far inland and we get very mild weather for a few days, then a brief day or two cool shot, followed by another big warm up. Terrible pattern, if this pattern continues into winter, the jet stream will shift further south but those south of 41-42 would probably be screwed. The blocking would offset that pattern big time, that's how we got those big storms last winter and I'm really hoping those who say the blocking will return by December are right because at worst, we would see a 2007-2008 type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 This is why strong blocking is going to be extremely important once again because the pattern for the next couple weeks as shown per the models is typical nina. The lows cut far inland and we get very mild weather for a few days, then a brief day or two cool shot, followed by another big warm up. Terrible pattern, if this pattern continues into winter, the jet stream will shift further south but those south of 41-42 would probably be screwed. The blocking would offset that pattern big time, that's how we got those big storms last winter and I'm really hoping those who say the blocking will return by December are right because at worst, we would see a 2007-2008 type winter. I would rather have a mild November than December anyday of the week..again even in a great pattern this time of year it would probably rain..things usually get cranking the first or second week in December..we are a month off before you would get indications of this winters pattern..if that?..93-94 it was mild until a week before Christmas..last year it didn't snow until Dec 26th..still a long way to go..relax and enjoy the beautiful weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I know you guys like snow, and I do too, but if it is not going to snow.. this weather is ****ing awesome. 59 at 10pm. It literally could not be more comfortable outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Yikes at the H5 and H7 charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Even more absurd spread in temps tonight: Midtown: 58 Central Park: 56 LGA: 57 Newark: 50 Philly: 48 DCA: 47 Richmond: 44 Charlotte: 45 Columbia, SC: 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Looking at the 00Z ECMWF made me look up the record highs for Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 MON 18Z 14-NOV 15.5 9.8 1025 67 18 0.00 580 559 Normal value for the 7th in New York City , NY (LGA) is 58 Not sure what it is for the 13th-14th time frame but the ECM is only showing 2 M temps in the upper 50s ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Indian Summer today, enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Indian Summer today, enjoy it I have noticed your benchmarks for warmth are coming down. First it was 80s, then 70s, and now a high in the upper 60's is Indian Summer lol. No doubt it will be nice, but a positive departure area wide of 5-10 degrees for a day maybe two is not exactly abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I have noticed your benchmarks for warmth are coming down. First it was 80s, then 70s, and now a high in the upper 60's is Indian Summer lol. No doubt it will be nice, but a positive departure area wide of 5-10 degrees for a day maybe two is not exactly abnormal. it was in the 60's the day before the first real storm in 1995. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I have noticed your benchmarks for warmth are coming down. First it was 80s, then 70s, and now a high in the upper 60's is Indian Summer lol. No doubt it will be nice, but a positive departure area wide of 5-10 degrees for a day maybe two is not exactly abnormal. 5-10? Warmer than that, especially with blazing overnight mins, very brief "cooldown" this weekend and right back in the fire next week, in fact, next week could be recordbreaking. Should be a well above normal month (Again) with any pattern change coming at the very end of the month or Early December, enjoy the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Part of it is that it's been pretty chilly recently---or at least it's felt that way with cold nights and windy days following the snow over a week ago. Avg high this time of year is still 59--so I guess you can call mid to upper 60s indian summer if you want. Id probably save that for 70s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Part of it is that it's been pretty chilly recently---or at least it's felt that way with cold nights and windy days following the snow over a week ago. Avg high this time of year is still 59--so I guess you can call mid to upper 60s indian summer if you want. Id probably save that for 70s though. best of both worlds, first snow days of model tracking and laughing at noreaster27, and then back to playing golf, enjoying my extended season. I would be fine with a winter where we got two feet every two weeks but it all metled and I could play golf in between with highs in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The euro long range is always so reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The NAM looks a little cool for today so we should see 70 or a bit higher in the warmer spots today. http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KEWR 2 years ago we had a warm day for this time of year right on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 again the average high for November is 70 so don't sweat it...Start sweating if we see 70 the end of November or December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 do you mean the average warmest day? again the average high for November is 70 so don't sweat it...Start sweating if we see 70 the end of November or December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 again the average high for November is 70 so don't sweat it...Start sweating if we see 70 the end of November or December... Yeah,it's really difficult to use November temperatures one way or another to figure out what is going to happen in December unless it's like November 1976 preceding the historic cold that followed. NYC November temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 best of both worlds, first snow days of model tracking and laughing at noreaster27, and then back to playing golf, enjoying my extended season. I would be fine with a winter where we got two feet every two weeks but it all metled and I could play golf in between with highs in the 70s. + 1 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 EWR is already running +10 over yesterday at this time, wouldn't be surprised at all to see them get into the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Crazy with the lows again overnight: NYC: 53 LGA: 52 EWR: 48 PHL: 44 DCA: 42 RIC: 39 CLT: 39 ATL: 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 46 in southern queens, now already at 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 46 in southern queens, now already at 65 Yep mid 60s in midtown now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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