TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I understand, just feel november snows is more of a possibility then those high ratios. 20-1 is a great achievement around here. woops, October snow. Thing is, we haven't had a real arctic clipper around here in sometime, so when we do see one again, you may be surprised about seeing those ratios again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 woops, October snow. Thing is, we haven't had a real arctic clipper around here in sometime, so when we do see one again, you may be surprised about seeing those ratios again. My all time favorite clipper was the January 2004 storm that dropped 6-8 inches of the fluffiest snow I had ever seen. It was still snowing in the morning and it was 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 My all time favorite clipper was the January 2004 storm that dropped 6-8 inches of the fluffiest snow I had ever seen. It was still snowing in the morning and it was 7 degrees. I was up in Stowe, it was -30 at the top of the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Surprised no one is talking about the AO and how its going to tank soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 woops, October snow. Thing is, we haven't had a real arctic clipper around here in sometime, so when we do see one again, you may be surprised about seeing those ratios again. Speaking to the feast or famine which you alluded to, much of that comes from the blocking which has either been very, very bad or very, very good the past several years. Last year Jan 11 being an example...that storm was a monster out of NW Canada that turned into a big storm because it was forced south by the block and was allowed to redevelop. Probably a clipper otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 26.4 last night in Colts Neck, 5th night subfreezing. Pretty sure the growing season is over by now. Leaves falling like leaves, as the trees are past peak. With dst behind us, we're one step closer to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 The pattern near Turkey day looks really nice on the GFS . Looks like a -EPO and a - NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 26.4 last night in Colts Neck, 5th night subfreezing. Pretty sure the growing season is over by now. Leaves falling like leaves, as the trees are past peak. With dst behind us, we're one step closer to winter last November's minimum was only 34...I think we beat it easily near the end of the month...Last years max was only 65...Long term average is 70...We could get as high as that before a cool down...probably upper 60's...I still think we see a period of strong blocking this winter but when?...If it comes later than sooner December won't be as cold as expected by some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Dropped to 25.7 this morning at the icebox of Nassau County (Muttontown). Coldest morning low this fall to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Surprised no one is talking about the AO and how its going to tank soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Yeah I believe last november had some warm days also......warlock was posting about doing fall clean ups in shorts.... lol. I hope to be repeating that on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 This is the setup you want. I think we might be able to sneak one in around here...... http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA168.gif God Bless America I am totally content with what I have been seeing in the long range. I think we get a surprise accumulation around here around hour 144 Hey John, we should catch up and put the past behind us, its been too long IMHO. Agreed. PM with details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 This is the setup you want. I think we might be able to sneak one in around here...... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif Don't agree, that is a setup to waste a moderately favorable positive height anomaly over Greenland..good thing it's November. Any low pressure that ejects out of the West-Southwest US would easily take a highly unfavorable track for anything frozen remotely close to our area. Edit: Just realized your post was from yesterday..not sure if that image was time-sensitive (aka has updated/changed since you posted it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Already 2 degrees below my forecasted low...down to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Heat Island at work, 47-49 in the city right now. Won't be dropping much more. Right now Central Park and LGA have the same temp as Atlanta, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Heat Island at work, 47-49 in the city right now. Won't be dropping much more. Right now Central Park and LGA have the same temp as Atlanta, GA. I had about a ten degree spread with LGA on Sunday morning, 4 miles away. They are the worst. I'm not even 4 miles away it's more like 3 and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Don't agree, that is a setup to waste a moderately favorable positive height anomaly over Greenland..good thing it's November. Any low pressure that ejects out of the West-Southwest US would easily take a highly unfavorable track for anything frozen remotely close to our area. Edit: Just realized your post was from yesterday..not sure if that image was time-sensitive (aka has updated/changed since you posted it). It was a fleeting pipe dream......we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Even Newark which is usually affected was 9 degrees colder than Central Park. I had about a ten degree spread with LGA on Sunday morning, 4 miles away. They are the worst. I'm not even 4 miles away it's more like 3 and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Morning lows: Central Park: 45 LGA: 45 EWR: 36 JFK: 43 TEB: 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I hope things start to change soon, very unfavorable Nina pattern for us for the next two weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I hope things start to change soon, very unfavorable Nina pattern for us for the next two weeks at least. matters not. We got a storm already, and the pattern def. is changing for the better at the end of the month. AO is going to go negative fast too around the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Don't agree, that is a setup to waste a moderately favorable positive height anomaly over Greenland..good thing it's November. Any low pressure that ejects out of the West-Southwest US would easily take a highly unfavorable track for anything frozen remotely close to our area. Edit: Just realized your post was from yesterday..not sure if that image was time-sensitive (aka has updated/changed since you posted it). its close to having a piece of the sub-tropical system break off and ride up the trough when it gets cold enough. Still not out of the woods on that yet, these things can surprise us, especially with an impulse sneaking its way through the split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Yeah it's not like it January 7th and we haven't had any snow yet. Then I could see people getting panicked. It's still extremely early matters not. We got a storm already, and the pattern def. is changing for the better at the end of the month. AO is going to go negative fast too around the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I mean I'm not worried about mild Novembers, the last few have been very mild and December ended up delivering, but it's nice to see a change in the pattern in the long range because it gives us hope that things will flip to winter in a few weeks instead of continuing mild into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NYC's -3.6 for November thus far; it certainly hasn't been mild over the past week, especially at night. Also, I'm not seeing any prolonged surges of significant positive departures in the next couple weeks. Looks like a near normal/slightly above normal temp pattern overall, but the second half of the month will change w/ more conducive MJO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 NYC's -3.6 for November thus far; it certainly hasn't been mild over the past week, especially at night. Also, I'm not seeing any prolonged surges of significant positive departures in the next couple weeks. Looks like a near normal/slightly above normal temp pattern overall, but the second half of the month will change w/ more conducive MJO phases. what are we thinking for thanksgiving weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 huge arctic dump coming at the end of this month with the cold re-aligning itself over the pole instead of over Siberia and with the NAO going negative and as isotherm points out MJO on the move for a potential PNA spike should dump right into our backyard end of month/first week of December setting up a potentially explosive period storm wise. I may be a week or so early on my big storm call, but its definitely in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 huge arctic dump coming at the end of this month with the cold re-aligning itself over the pole instead of over Siberia and with the NAO going negative and as isotherm points out MJO on the move for a potential PNA spike should dump right into our backyard end of month/first week of December setting up a potentially explosive period storm wise. I may be a week or so early on my big storm call, but its definitely in the cards. so last weekend in nov may be a little chilly to ski in quebec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 what are we thinking for thanksgiving weekend? We should in transitioning to a much colder pattern overall by Thanksgiving week. Cold will begin dumping into the Plains and Great Lakes/sern Canada initially, with some resistance on the east coast. By week 3, we could have a pretty decent cross polar flow going. Based upon current proggs and analog support, I feel confident in saying the end fo November into December will be a very active time in terms of cold/storminess. Thetrials IMO is onto something regarding the MECL for the end of November; if we have blocking across the top with the MJO circulating into phases 8-1 by that time frame, I'd watch the Nov 23-30 period for a possible major storm in the Eastern US. Doesn't mean it'll be snow, in fact I think this first storm to get the colder pattern going will likely be a big snow maker for the interior Northeast.Then, all systems go for a rockin December, through the Christmas period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.