winterwarlock Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 can we hit 70 next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 can we hit 70 next week? I think it's possible, especially Newark. Upton seems to think so in their latest discussion. I can see someone touching 70 if the current forecasted temps verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Wow. This is a massive west coast troughing signal. Even with moderately favorable heights over Greenland there's nothing we can do in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Wow. This is a massive west coast troughing signal. Even with moderately favorable heights over Greenland there's nothing we can do in that pattern. This has a couple of important side effects: 1) Periodic severe weather episodes over the south-central plains. 2) It should help dent the drought over parts of Texas/Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Considering the forecasted 850 temps. on Monday along with a westerly flow, you may be able to add five degrees to MOS forecasted highs on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Wow. This is a massive west coast troughing signal. Even with moderately favorable heights over Greenland there's nothing we can do in that pattern. Looks like a raging La Njna pattern despite the blocking in the Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Looks like a raging La Njna pattern despite the blocking in the Atlantic.... The blocking is in the wrong place though too far east and its only a marginally -NAO. The NAO ensembles today for the first time show a marked drop into negative territory. If that occurs then the SE ridge can be suppressed. This is certainly the time to get the lousy pattern out of the way, but at the same time if we wind up with a very mild November its not something that can be ignored, there is a very fine line between warmer than normal Novembers often leading to colder and snowier winters and then VERY mild Novembers meaning snowless and mild winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Wow. This is a massive west coast troughing signal. Even with moderately favorable heights over Greenland there's nothing we can do in that pattern. Agreed. We aren't going to get into a cold and stormy pattern, until the +EPO/-PNA changes. The storms the next couple weeks will largely be rainstorms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The Ensemble forecast has a -NAO and a -AO by midmonth but a -PNA. Even if the NAO and AO are negative, the -PNA will hurt us. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Highs at 18z on the NAM..it's that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Meh.....better to get it out if the way now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Meh.....better to get it out if the way now November's are known for some days in the 60's, even near 70..1993 had a November day in the upper 70's..not unusual at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 November's are known for some days in the 60's, even near 70..1993 had a November day in the upper 70's..not unusual at all Yeah I believe last november had some warm days also......warlock was posting about doing fall clean ups in shorts.... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The cold is coming,I am not worried about that but like last year with a -PNA it would be cold and dry like it was for much of last December.This is why I hope nobody expects a winter like last one because its not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 November's are known for some days in the 60's, even near 70..1993 had a November day in the upper 70's..not unusual at all It got to 80 on Nov 15th 1993,latest 80 degree reading on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The cold is coming,I am not worried about that but like last year with a -PNA it would be cold and dry like it was for much of last December.This is why I hope nobody expects a winter like last one because its not happening. What do you mean? I should not expect 60 inches of snow in 31 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The cold is coming,I am not worried about that but like last year with a -PNA it would be cold and dry like it was for much of last December.This is why I hope nobody expects a winter like last one because its not happening. Don't worry, they expect it. And they will complain when it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 What do you mean? I should not expect 60 inches of snow in 31 days? Psh, thats pretty normal now. I was born 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Psh, thats pretty normal now. I was born 2 years ago. Lol.....our new avg must be 60.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 What do you mean? I should not expect 60 inches of snow in 31 days? You will get half of that in 90 days.and be happy with it.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 You will get half of that in 90 days.and be happy with it.lol Although I will say, it's pretty comical how the last two years have featured winters which had "snow periods" that were essentially one month long. Last year we received the majority of our snow from Dec 26 - Jan 26. The winter before that there was a whole bunch of snow from the end of Jan to the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Although I will say, it's pretty comical how the last two years have featured winters which had "snow periods" that were essentially one month long. Last year we received the majority of our snow from Dec 26 - Jan 26. The winter before that there was a whole bunch of snow from the end of Jan to the end of Feb. Yeah, I'm longing for a start to finish winter like 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. I guess we'll have to wait for a weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Agreed. We aren't going to get into a cold and stormy pattern, until the +EPO/-PNA changes. The storms the next couple weeks will largely be rainstorms for us. Last winter was mostly dominated by a -PNA/-NAO pattern, too. In this specific case the pacific pattern is so anomalous, and the blocking and positive height anomalies over Greenland are so mundane, that the pattern is essentially overwhelmed by the -PNA. Last winter the PNA averaged negative but buckled for a good period from late Dec to late Jan--which is when the blocking was most anomalous. The combination of the two led to a historic period of snow and one of the more classic patterns you will ever see for big events on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Although I will say, it's pretty comical how the last two years have featured winters which had "snow periods" that were essentially one month long. Last year we received the majority of our snow from Dec 26 - Jan 26. The winter before that there was a whole bunch of snow from the end of Jan to the end of Feb. It is remarkable in that aspect.What I am waiting to see is several overrunning systems dropping 2-4 3-6 inches.Have not had that much recently.Or how about a coastal that closes,and stalls over us and it snows for 24 hours plus averaging an inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Great news..tomorrow we can start getting model runs an hour early..9am NAM 10:30 GFS,Euro at 1..back to winter normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Although I will say, it's pretty comical how the last two years have featured winters which had "snow periods" that were essentially one month long. Last year we received the majority of our snow from Dec 26 - Jan 26. The winter before that there was a whole bunch of snow from the end of Jan to the end of Feb. 30" in 30 days... The short list... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The Ensemble forecast has a -NAO and a -AO by midmonth but a -PNA. Even if the NAO and AO are negative, the -PNA will hurt us. http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png The negative PNA is something that is likely to be prevalent most of the winter, given the moderate nina and strong -PDO. However, in times of stronger blocking/-NAO, especially if we can get an Alaskan block connecting over the top, will help to mute the PNA signal. FYI, we had a -PNA during the Boxing day blizzard last winter. Trough was over the Pac NW w/ a monster ridge in the nern plains/sern canada, amplifying the eastern short wave. The Northeast US can do fine cold/snow wise in a -PNA; the Southeast US is a different story. With that said, I expect the PNA to surge positive for a time in December, when I think the -NAO will be strongest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The negative PNA is something that is likely to be prevalent most of the winter, given the moderate nina and strong -PDO. However, in times of stronger blocking/-NAO, especially if we can get an Alaskan block connecting over the top, will help to mute the PNA signal. FYI, we had a -PNA during the Boxing day blizzard last winter. Trough was over the Pac NW w/ a monster ridge in the nern plains/sern canada, amplifying the eastern short wave. The Northeast US can do fine cold/snow wise in a -PNA; the Southeast US is a different story. With that said, I expect the PNA to surge positive for a time in December, when I think the -NAO will be strongest. All 3 of my top analogs for the winter had a -PNA average for DJF (1954-55, 1955-56, 2008-09). However, 54-55 and 08-09 did feature 1 month out of the 3 with a +PNA signal. The PDO was extremely negative in 55-56; I don't anticipate it to be that negative this winter, so I can certainly see periods where the PNA is near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Last winter was mostly dominated by a -PNA/-NAO pattern, too. In this specific case the pacific pattern is so anomalous, and the blocking and positive height anomalies over Greenland are so mundane, that the pattern is essentially overwhelmed by the -PNA. Last winter the PNA averaged negative but buckled for a good period from late Dec to late Jan--which is when the blocking was most anomalous. The combination of the two led to a historic period of snow and one of the more classic patterns you will ever see for big events on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The negative PNA is something that is likely to be prevalent most of the winter, given the moderate nina and strong -PDO. However, in times of stronger blocking/-NAO, especially if we can get an Alaskan block connecting over the top, will help to mute the PNA signal. FYI, we had a -PNA during the Boxing day blizzard last winter. Trough was over the Pac NW w/ a monster ridge in the nern plains/sern canada, amplifying the eastern short wave. The Northeast US can do fine cold/snow wise in a -PNA; the Southeast US is a different story. With that said, I expect the PNA to surge positive for a time in December, when I think the -NAO will be strongest. Agreed especially re: December. I still think the pieces are falling into place for a potentially memorable pattern (again) in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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