bluewave Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Really consistent +EPO pattern this fall with a start over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 someone change the thread title, its november 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Looks like some low 60's around the area on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Long range GEFS shows a -NAO while the Euro ensembles still show a + NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 It looks like the PNA is starting to go positive while the NAO and AO are still going to be positive for the near future. Like many have said on this board and other boards, I think the main pattern change will be in the middle of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 A positive PNA is something we could really use, it could really offset the negative Pacific conditions. Many times a very positive PNA is even better than a weak -NAO and it's a good sign for a change to colder weather in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Really consistent +EPO pattern this fall with a start over the summer. It's been positive for a long time... it would make sense that eventually the EPO will flip to negative, perhaps it could do so by mid-late December? Looks like some low 60's around the area on Sunday. Record highs for Sunday are 77 degrees in Central Park... no way we'll get even close to that, but 60+ degrees is still nearly 10-15 degrees above average. If the warmer models verify, we may get to 60 degrees again next weekend with a strong SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 we will probably see 60's in December...2008 had a 67 degrees day after Christmas...2009 66 and 60 last year...LT average is 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 we will probably see 60's in December...2008 had a 67 degrees day after Christmas...2009 66 and 60 last year...LT average is 60... Agreed, especially if the current pattern continues. I think there was even a 70+ degree day in Dec 06 when it took seemingly forever for winter to start. Last December also started out with 60+ degrees in some places as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 we will probably see 60's in December...2008 had a 67 degrees day after Christmas...2009 66 and 60 last year...LT average is 60... probably, but so what, as long as it is between 20 inch snow storms, right? every winter has periods of warmth, even the best winter ever 95-96 had some really warm days in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Agreed, especially if the current pattern continues. I think there was even a 70+ degree day in Dec 06 when it took seemingly forever for winter to start. Last December also started out with 60+ degrees in some places as you mentioned. december 06 had a record +AO, no blocking, and a nino. Totally different pattern. We will be fine, have a little faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 december 06 had a record +AO, no blocking, and a nino. Totally different pattern. We will be fine, have a little faith. The only comparison that can be made to that month was a slightly delayed start to the cold/snow... the start of this winter appears to be slightly delayed, but that Dec-Jan period was a complete disaster. I've still got plenty of hope for the second half of the month, but I wouldn't be surprised if we do see a period of above average temps before we flip into any sustained cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 probably, but so what, as long as it is between 2 inch snow storms, right? every winter has periods of warmth, even the best winter ever 95-96 had some really warm days in January. fixed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Attention: Hot off the presses from the CPC: Temp. departures from Nov. 25 - Nov. 29: Nov. 27 - Dec. 3: What a total inferno; it looks as if these maps were created by Al Gore. I never saw the 70-80% contours on these maps before today. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Attention: Hot off the presses from the CPC: Temp. departures from Nov. 25 - Nov. 29: Nov. 27 - Dec. 3: What a total inferno; it looks as if these maps were created by Al Gore. I never saw the 70-80% contours on these maps before today. :axe: If I'm not mistaken, I think their weekend maps are automatically generated, which is why their weekend maps seem to show higher and more widespread warmth probability. Either that or Al Gore is now in charge of the weekend CPC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2011 THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASSIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. Yep, you're correct. However, I would bet that those maps caused some weenies to suicide for the entire upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, I think their weekend maps are automatically generated, which is why their weekend maps seem to show higher and more widespread warmth probability. Either that or Al Gore is now in charge of the weekend CPC maps. Except Al Bore predicted the warmup would occur more in Alaska than anywhere else. I admit the guy is a charlatan and a creep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Saturday is looking like another day in the 60's across the area. This weekend may feature the last 60's we see for a while as the PNA finally rises and the EPO falls closer to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Saturday is looking like another day in the 60's across the area. This weekend may feature the last 60's we see for a while as the PNA finally rises and the EPO falls closer to neutral. All the factors are there for another much warmer than average day - with mostly sunny skies, SW winds, large 500mb ridge over the East, and 850 mb temps over 10c, I'm almost confident someone in the area will reach 65 degrees. I'm usually not a fan of warmth towards the end of the fall into winter, but I'm enjoying this as much as I can, since as you mentioned, the improving pattern will probably mean this is the last 60+ degree torch we see for a while. It shouldn't be consistently cold afterwards, but at least we won't see a strong ridge drop into the East behind every brief trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Except Al Bore predicted the warmup would occur more in Alaska than anywhere else. I admit the guy is a charlatan and a creep. It HAS warmed there more than anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Alaska has been having record breaking historic cold this month . Most likely end up coldest november ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Record highs for today: EWR | 68/1979 BDR *63/1999 | NYC 67/1946 LGA | 67/1946 JFK | 64/200 ISP | 65/1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 off to play 18 in shorts and a t-shirt!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 off to play 18 in shorts and a t-shirt!!! 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 1PM roundup TEB: 66 NYC: 65 (67 record) EWR: 67 (68 record) JFK: 63 (64 record) LGA: 64 (66 record) ISP: 65 (65 record) TTN: 66 (70 record) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 EWR 68 as of 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 It HAS warmed there more than anywhere else. So I guess you disagree with this (link). Alaska has been having record breaking historic cold this month . Most likely end up coldest november ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 So I guess you disagree with this (link). No one that understands climatology will point to one month of one year as evidence that Alaska has not been warming up. I read recently that Alaksa winters are on average 5-6 degrees warmer over the past 30 years and almost 4 degrees warmer as a full year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 beautiful weather. Keep torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 beautiful weather. Keep torching. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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