ag3 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Sounds lovely.. It's beginning to seem as though we're getting into a situation, like in past years where we keep putting the cold/pattern change off by a few weeks. First everyone said by mid/late nov. The pattern would switch and now we're talking about post dec. 20th... As is usually the case we'll see what happens, but we all have to be realistic. This winter may not turn out that great.. Perhaps we get a few 4-6 inch events w/ problems w/ mixing etc. What we experienced from pretty much march of 2009 to mid January 2011 was no doubt an anomaly.. Storm after storm... It was truly incredible. Perhaps things begin to change by new years and we can have a decent January... Time will tell... Jeff 2002-2006 had 4 years of 40"+ winters in a row for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I know what it had.. 2002-2011 was an amazing stretch.. 06-08 wasn't great.. But 09-11 was absolutely amazing.. It just seems as though it will be hard to continue that streak but hey, we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Maybe a little snow at the end tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Latest GFS suggests hilltops get dusted white tomorrow. I bet the soundings are really warm in the lower levels... about to check. I wonder if this anafrontal situation could trend into more of a distinct wave. Quick look at 300mb and 500mb looks pretty good. I'll have to go back and compare to past several runs and GFS ensembles. It's been hard to pay much attention lately. Easy to miss a sneaky storm. Skeptical about flakes tomorrow as models periodically leave too much precip behind fronts and then take it away. Minimal support at first glance. Maybe interior SNE gets an inch in a few high spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Latest GFS suggests hilltops get dusted white tomorrow. The 18z GFS seems to be slightly wetter with tomorrow's system, and a touch cooler than the 6z GFS was with tomorrow's system. 18z GFS at 30h 6z GFS at 42h I would not be surprised to see someone in the higher elevations to get a coating, and even a few flakes to fly in Western parts of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i said watch out for a sneaky wave, probably too warm at the surface, but any flakes are cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z Thurs forecast sounding Yup, very warm near the surface. It looks like areas above 1000 feet could support snow by 16-18z tomorrow, with between .1-.2 frozen QPF. Flakes could mix in by 21z or so down to near sea level, with possibly .05 non-accumulating frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 At least 4 of the GEFS members from 12z were significantly more robust than the operational run with precip on the cold side of the front. Unfortunately the raleighwx page is missing a few of the graphics and the ewall page has poor resolution, so I won't post the images. The SREFs are also trending toward a more distinct second wave and area of precip riding up from TN/KY overnight and along the mid-atlantic and NE coast during the day tomorrow. Definitely something to keep an eye on. These "anafronts" are unpredictable - usually in a disappointing way but once in a while they can bring a positive surprise. There's some decent cold sliding down through the midwest right now. It can't be a bad thing to see some radar returns in OK, MO, and AR this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12036.gif 18z ensemble mean QPF looks like the operational. .1-.2" frozen but mostly liquid below highest elevations. 21z SREFs could be mildly interesting. Snow chances will likely be ascertained tonight by radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 We'll probably see flakes from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 0z NAM is getting awfully close to bringing flakes to elevated regions of the metro tomorrow. The shortwave trof is modeled slightly stronger/sharper and its lagging the surface wave quite a lot. There should be a tendency for light precip to linger or redevelop to the west of the boundary as the s/w approaches. If it digs a little further, we could be looking at widespread rain showers and inland snow showers. Unfortunately the NAM is extremely warm below 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 21z SREF 12 hour QPF. Improved from 15z: 15z SREF And drastically improved from 09z: 09z SREF That would be mostly snow in the highest elevations and mostly rain near sea level. The NAM is very warm below 250m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 told you guys for days to watch this wave nam looks better, even the blind rsm has something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The models haven't modeled the small area of rain in Arkansas very well. NAM, GFS, and Euro printed out about a hundredth or less. Currently there are a few reports of moderate rain with what looks like .1" in spots. Not a huge deal but I like to focus on the upstream conditions when considering the possible robustness of annafrontal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The 00z NAM, although keeping the precipitation mostly to the south/east of NYC, suggests that in the places where precip does fall, colder air would come closer to the surface and bring snow close to the surface... this sounding from SNJ, where about 0.2" QPF falls in a 3-hour time frame, shows the cold air making it down below the 925mb layer but not exactly to the surface, where temps would likely be in the upper 30s. Meanwhile, the sounding for NE NJ, where little QPF falls, shows dry conditions near the surface with below freezing temps not making it below the 925mb layer. It's the very short range and we're not going to see any big trend, but at the same time it will only take a small shift to turn tomorrow from a 45 degree cloudy day to a 40 degree cold rain with flakes mixing towards the higher elevations N/W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The 18z GFS printed out between .3 and .4 inch liquid tomorrow for most of the area after 925mb temps drop below 0C. This would be the first legitimate snow threat for the hilltops of NNJ, SENY, and NWCT in almost any other year. As it is, this is the 3rd of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The 00z NAM, although keeping the precipitation mostly to the south/east of NYC, suggests that in the places where precip does fall, colder air would come closer to the surface and bring snow close to the surface... this sounding from SNJ, where about 0.2" QPF falls in a 3-hour time frame, shows the cold air making it down below the 925mb layer but not exactly to the surface, where temps would likely be in the upper 30s. Meanwhile, the sounding for NE NJ, where little QPF falls, shows dry conditions near the surface with below freezing temps not making it below the 925mb layer. It's the very short range and we're not going to see any big trend, but at the same time it will only take a small shift to turn tomorrow from a 45 degree cloudy day to a 40 degree cold rain with flakes mixing towards the higher elevations N/W of the city. Agreed. With such a steep lapse rate, the chance of seeing flakes is heavily dependent on precipitation intensity. Your first sounding could easily indicate wet snow, especially anyplace with a few hundred feet of elevation. If this thing overproduces, lots of places could mix at the end with a coating in many hill towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f024&startdate=2011111621&field=SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f027&startdate=2011111621&field=SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_ SREF maximum 3-hr snowfall for 21z and 0z tomorrow afternoon. This illustrates the snowiest member of the SREF suite, and is therefore extremely optimistic. But it's nice to see even a long shot possibly showing up in the graphics. And this has been trending more favorably for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 seems like if we had even a tad bit of blocking upstream tomorrow, it could have made it really interesting. It's a pretty well phased trof going negatively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Boundary layer temps stink--but I would be thrilled to see even a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Agreed. With such a steep lapse rate, the chance of seeing flakes is heavily dependent on precipitation intensity. Your first sounding could easily indicate wet snow, especially anyplace with a few hundred feet of elevation. If this thing overproduces, lots of places could mix at the end with a coating in many hill towns. The interesting part is that the first sounding is very close to snow near the surface, yet it is in southern NJ which is almost at sea level. If the same conditions were observed further north, for example over Bergen county where there are higher elevations, then as you said, snow would mix in with the rain. This actually almost reminds me of a March 20, 2009 event when the NYC area saw a surprise snow event with a short burst of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 seems like if we had even a tad bit of blocking upstream tomorrow, it could have made it really interesting. It's a pretty well phased trof going negatively tilted. Agreed. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Another shortwave digging into the Southeast states when it really shouldn't be. This is going to be a great winter if we can ditch the gravity sucking trough over Alaska. The -NAO will return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I know that the RR and HRRR definitely aren't the most accurate models out there, but I find it interesting that both of them show a stronger and even further west storm than what the NAM and GFS have, definitely far west enough to keep the p-type as rain here but also show widespread moderate precip falling... IMO though they're going too far west with the storm, I would go with something further east closer to the SREF/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Safe to say Thursday's high comes in about ninety minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I know that the RR and HRRR definitely aren't the most accurate models out there, but I find it interesting that both of them show a stronger and even further west storm than what the NAM and GFS have, definitely far west enough to keep the p-type as rain here but also show widespread moderate precip falling... IMO though they're going too far west with the storm, I would go with something further east closer to the SREF/GFS. Hey, that would be just fine for my area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Another shortwave digging into the Southeast states when it really shouldn't be. This is going to be a great winter if we can ditch the gravity sucking trough over Alaska. The -NAO will return. Yeah with the NAO being in control over the past few winters, we've forgotten how powerful the EPO can actually be. When strong it can really dictate the flow coming off the Pac. and control the pattern out here with ease. Regardless of the torch, when you have anomalies like this, its just straight up impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 This should be called the "Pigs flying out of our azzes" pattern...because that is when NYC metro would see accumulating snow in this whole setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 This should be called the "Pigs flying out of our azzes" pattern...because that is when NYC metro would see accumulating snow in this whole setup. Meteorological miracles at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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