bluewave Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Thanks bud. You've been on this for weeks as well. I agree regarding the +EPO. The entire North Pacific has been one big anomaly since the end of the summer -- and it's amazing to see the consistency. It's gotten even more dramatic today on the GEFS ensemble mean height anomaly maps. Look at the 498mb pink circle in the Gulf of Alaska and -24 to -36 height anomaly shade. At 300 hours! http://www.meteo.psu...GNH_6z/f300.gif The Euro ensemble mean is averaging below a -300 m anomaly on it's ten day which could work out to around -400 m to -500 m as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 It looks like Central New Jersey will make to 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Yeah mid 60s already in EWR and in the city. Wouldn't be surprised to see 68-70 if we keep the sun.... It looks like Central New Jersey will make to 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 would still be looking out around 78 hours. Three GEFS now showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Newark up to 68 at 1pm. Central Park at 67. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Looks like the warmest weather for a while occurring today into Wednesday morning. I thought next week could be even warmer but it looks like models are backing off somewhat on the extent of the warming for thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 euro now showing the small wave around the 23rd, like the gfs has been showing on and off. Temps probably too mild unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Pacific continues to look horrible on the Euro.. at least in the near future.. the entire period basically has ridging between 140W - 160W, which is exactly the opposite of what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The Pacific continues to look horrible on the Euro.. at least in the near future.. the entire period basically has ridging between 140W - 160W, which is exactly the opposite of what we need. around 240 the ridge out in the pacific ocean begins to move east, hopefully a sign of things turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Wow, temperatures are near 69 degrees in Central Park/Teterboro and 70 degrees in Newark... Last time I checked today's forecast temperatures late last night, I don't remember seeing any model or forecast show over 65 degrees. The latest models now show a shorter lasting torch for the weekend with temperatures not getting much beyond 60 degrees, but with the solid +EPO/-PNA pattern stil in place, the most a shorter torch would do is probably average out next week's temperatures to slightly above average, with the exception of the occasional transient cool spells. The GFS/ECM now apparently try to show a strongly negative PNA returning near Thanksgiving, but I'm not too concerned with any strong -PNA prior to 12/1, considering that the mild pattern is still expected to continue through early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Wow, temperatures are near 69 degrees in Central Park/Teterboro and 70 degrees in Newark... Last time I checked today's forecast temperatures late last night, I don't remember seeing any model or forecast show over 65 degrees. The latest models now show a shorter lasting torch for the weekend with temperatures not getting much beyond 60 degrees, but with the solid +EPO/-PNA pattern stil in place, the most a shorter torch would do is probably average out next week's temperatures to slightly above average, with the exception of the occasional transient cool spells. The GFS/ECM now apparently try to show a strongly negative PNA returning near Thanksgiving, but I'm not too concerned with any strong -PNA prior to 12/1, considering that the mild pattern is still expected to continue through early December. the last 2 months have been an unmitigated blowtorch....(other than the snowstorm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 18z gfs inches yet again closer to some flakes around here after the front comes through the RH fields look pretty good and I noticed a few srefs are showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 the last 2 months have been an unmitigated blowtorch....(other than the snowstorm) It's definitely been a warmer than average fall so far, especially with a frequently positive EPO and the mostly negative PNA pattern developing in early October (although the stronger -PNA didn't become sustained until the start of Nov). The -PNA/+EPO pattern can't possibly hold forever, eventually it has to break down into something that's at least more favorable for the stronger cold to become more sustained over southern/central Canada before dropping into the northern US, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen for a while. With such a strong and persistent -PNA/+EPO pattern, it's going to take time for the mild pattern to fall apart and become colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 31 degree spread today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Mr. G on Pix 11 commenting on Central Park receiving only 0.4" of rain from Nov. 1-14, says we need more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 mid 60s at midnight, walked around in shorts and sandals this evening. November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The models and ensembles ,look like have trended more progressive for this weekend and Thanksgiving week. We'll just be in and out of cold and mild airmasses, every few days. This is looks realistic, since the pacific jet will be strengthening and their won't be any real blocking upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 The models and ensembles ,look like have trended more progressive for this weekend and Thanksgiving week. We'll just be in and out of cold and mild airmasses, every few days. This is looks realistic, since the pacific jet will be strengthening and their won't be any real blocking upstream. The best news is the last few GFS runs boot the west Asian/Russian trough out and put a 500mb ridge in place beyond Day 8. This is the infamous "Cahirs Connection" Joe Bastardi often mentions which creates cross polar flow. The problem in this case though is that the Cahirs Connection will do little if the GOA low is flooding W Canada with mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looks like many places didn't even drop below 60 last night...has to be a record high minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 60 degrees this morning. Yesterday was yet another day in shorts and t shirt doing leaf cleanups....I am lovin this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 central park +15 lga+15 jfk+12 isp+18 ewr+14 impressive warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For those who want something to clutch, look at the 06Z GFS run around 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 the last two years were almost as mild as it is today on this date...Where does it go from here?...Do we see a turn to colder in December or does December remain on the mild side?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For those who want something to clutch, look at the 06Z GFS run around 180 hours. it's all rain... above freezing all the way up to 900 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This will be the most positive EPO reading of the whole run since last summer. The 500 mb negative height anomalies showing up near Alaska in the forecast would be the lowest that we have seen in a while there. I am not even sure when the last time was that we saw a -400 m to possibly -500 m or lower value there. So far I have only been able to find a reading lower than -400 m back in February 1999, but I am not sure what the record is. 2/6/99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 That 98/99 winter was in of the worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Especially because it was the third bad one in a row. We did at least manage a white christmas with that snow on the 24th and a few other events in January and March. I was lucky enough to be in Chicago that winter and was there for the big 1/1/99 event which at the time was their #2 all time storm ( I think surpassed by the blizzard earlier this year) That 98/99 winter was in of the worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This will be the most positive EPO reading of the whole run since last summer. The 500 mb negative height anomalies showing up near Alaska in the forecast would be the lowest that we have seen in a while there. I am not even sure when the last time was that we saw a -400 m to possibly -500 m or lower value there. So far I have only been able to find a reading lower than -400 m back in February 1999, but I am not sure what the record is. 2/6/99 That AK vortex just screams torcharama for the end of Nov into early December. Probably 60-65F with strong T-storm chances with FROPA's the first 10 days of dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 That AK vortex just screams torcharama for the end of Nov into early December. Probably 60-65F with strong T-storm chances with FROPA's the first 10 days of dec. yeh it's been awhile that I've seen an AK vortex of that magnitude, we need a massive change to see better results. I hate to say it but i'm starting to get skeptical of any pattern change before Christmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 That AK vortex just screams torcharama for the end of Nov into early December. Probably 60-65F with strong T-storm chances with FROPA's the first 10 days of dec. Sounds lovely.. It's beginning to seem as though we're getting into a situation, like in past years where we keep putting the cold/pattern change off by a few weeks. First everyone said by mid/late nov. The pattern would switch and now we're talking about post dec. 20th... As is usually the case we'll see what happens, but we all have to be realistic. This winter may not turn out that great.. Perhaps we get a few 4-6 inch events w/ problems w/ mixing etc. What we experienced from pretty much march of 2009 to mid January 2011 was no doubt an anomaly.. Storm after storm... It was truly incredible. Perhaps things begin to change by new years and we can have a decent January... Time will tell... Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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