November warmup 11/5 - 11/10

[earthlight]

Note the difference b/t the Euro and GFS positioning of the NAO block, and its upstream effects on the SE ridge in the Eastern US. We do NOT want what the GFS shows -- an east based blocking feature which will not be enough to offset the poor pacific signal (-PNA). However with the Euro, we've got a west based -NAO block, and this can sustain cold air in the Northeast regardless of the PNA. The first H5 map is what we want going forward into december. It's also what I think will occur BTW; there's strong analog support for the cold making it into the Northeast and even parts of the upper Southeast probably.

The GFS and GEFS means are fairly stubborn with bringing the next MJO impulse into Phase 1..and swiftly through Phase 8 to get there. Which likely means we may see a brief spike in heights on the west coast (might be hard to do given the highly negative anomalies there), but more than anything we would see a period of below normal height anomalies here in the east.

However if this depiction is correct it would be short lived--and by the end of the month we're back to a moderate phase 1 MJO. The ECMWF is more encouraging in bringing the MJO into Phase 8 and then neutralizing/weakening it at that stage. This is why you're seeing the ECMWF and ECMWF Ensembles bring higher heights into Greenland and killing some of the effects of the -PNA.

For a visualization of how different these pattern depictions are...we can look at the 500mb MJO Composites offered by raleighwx.

Here's the GEFS means which are indicative of a moderate phase 1 MJO by the middle/end of the month.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/LaNinagt1Phase1.gif

Here's the Phase 8 ECMWF

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/LaNinagt1Phase8.gif

If the ECMWF is correct there is more hope for a pattern changing system by the end of the month as the MJO impulse collapses. If the GEFS has the right idea--all bets are off and the -PNA will continue and the blocking will offer very little help.

[earthlight]

This idea is translated, obviously, through the GEFS means on E-wall as well...and you can see the pattern depiction fairly well through 300 hours...matching up decently with the composites above.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f300.gif

[Guest Pamela]

front just came through after a high just shy of 70. Dark clouds moving through with a lot of wind.. temp is dropping like a rock

Seasonably chilly air starting to filter into NE PA; Scranton down to 42 F @ 4:00 PM...

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonably chilly air starting to filter into NE PA; Scranton down to 42 F @ 4:00 PM...

Buffalo and Rochester sitting on a trace of snow this winter each; that may change tonight...same was true in the UP of Michigan at snowy Marquette until they picked up close to a foot yesterday....

[Allsnow]

Seasonably chilly air starting to filter into NE PA; Scranton down to 42 F @ 4:00 PM...

.

40 here in Thompson, Pennsylvania William

Been 4 wheeling all day up here....been chilly and rainy....

[Guest Pamela]

.

40 here in Thompson, Pennsylvania William

Been 4 wheeling all day up here....been chilly and rainy....

Good snow town with an altitude of nearly 2000 feet....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

.

40 here in Thompson, Pennsylvania William

Been 4 wheeling all day up here....been chilly and rainy....

By Elk mountain? My uncle has a place up there at 1900 feet I love it there, his places has to average close to 100 inches a year sitting right at the tail end of the lake effect and close enough to the coast to cash in on coastal's.

It was a warm sunny day here in Long Beach with Sean sending in some fun swell.

[Alpha5]

Novembers before our snowiest winters...

bump

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS and GEFS means are fairly stubborn with bringing the next MJO impulse into Phase 1..and swiftly through Phase 8 to get there. Which likely means we may see a brief spike in heights on the west coast (might be hard to do given the highly negative anomalies there), but more than anything we would see a period of below normal height anomalies here in the east.

However if this depiction is correct it would be short lived--and by the end of the month we're back to a moderate phase 1 MJO. The ECMWF is more encouraging in bringing the MJO into Phase 8 and then neutralizing/weakening it at that stage. This is why you're seeing the ECMWF and ECMWF Ensembles bring higher heights into Greenland and killing some of the effects of the -PNA.

For a visualization of how different these pattern depictions are...we can look at the 500mb MJO Composites offered by raleighwx.

Here's the GEFS means which are indicative of a moderate phase 1 MJO by the middle/end of the month.

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase1.gif

Here's the Phase 8 ECMWF

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase8.gif

If the ECMWF is correct there is more hope for a pattern changing system by the end of the month as the MJO impulse collapses. If the GEFS has the right idea--all bets are off and the -PNA will continue and the blocking will offer very little help.

The ECMWF has been way more accurate than the GFS the last 10-14 days, as a result I'm trusting it more down the road. The GFS shows a very 2001-2002 like pattern Days 10-16 its last few runs with the massive Great Basin surface ridge and screaming westerly flow with the bowl trough in the East but virtually no cold air to speak of.

[earthlight]

The ECMWF has been way more accurate than the GFS the last 10-14 days, as a result I'm trusting it more down the road. The GFS shows a very 2001-2002 like pattern Days 10-16 its last few runs with the massive Great Basin surface ridge and screaming westerly flow with the bowl trough in the East but virtually no cold air to speak of.

Agree regarding the Euro's accuracy. Unsettling, still, that the euro ens are more in agreement with the GEFS height anomalies rolled forward.

[JBG]

front just came through after a high just shy of 70. Dark clouds moving through with a lot of wind.. temp is dropping like a rock

I still jogged in shorts last night

[NYCSuburbs]

This is my first post analyzing the models in this forum... I don't have as much experience as others here have, so any criticism is appreciated, although I have experience with observing the models and noticing their typical biases and trends.

The models still have some issues with how they are handling the set up for next week, although there is somewhat more consistency than there was 1-2 days ago. There's now agreement on a cold front moving through next week, but the GFS as usual is the fastest, bringing it through on Monday, the NAM is a bit slower and has it moving through Pennsylvania on Monday, the CMC (FWIW) takes it through on Tuesday, and the ECM brings rain only by Tuesday night (according to wunderground images). Looking at the 500mb heights, the 06z GFS has more of a flat set up with a weaker central US trough and SE ridge than the 0z ECM does, so I assume that if the GFS trends towards a stronger SE ridge, the front would be a bit slower as well. The ECM has been trending less amplified, especially considering that at first it didn't take the front through until Wednesday, but unlike the GFS, it doesn't push the cold air straight into the region, but rather has another weak low pressure in the NE on Thursday. I'm thinking at this time that the GFS ends up a bit slower with the front and trends away from the stronger trough it brings in on Wednesday/Thursday, showing a scenario closer to the ECM, but with the front also a little faster than the ECM has it, probably bringing the front through sometime between Monday night-Tuesday with light to moderate rain while keeping the warmth in place through Tuesday.

[earthlight]

Brought this post over from the banter thread

These charts don't show the whole picture, much better to actually look at the 500mb pattern on the actual maps.

Correct, and it looks terrible. The Euro ensembles at 500mb are still awful, too..and actually bring forward some similarities to Dec 2001

December 2001 general idea was fixated around a similar Eastern and Northern Pacific pattern.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2001/120309.png

Notice the persistent negative anomalies near Alaska which kept sliding southeast towards the NW US in association with a -PNA.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/500znhseas_dec2001.gif

[KEITH L.I]

Brought this post over from the banter thread

Correct, and it looks terrible. The Euro ensembles at 500mb are still awful, too..and actually bring forward some similarities to Dec 2001

December 2001 general idea was fixated around a similar Eastern and Northern Pacific pattern.

http://www.meteo.psu...2001/120309.png

Notice the persistent negative anomalies near Alaska which kept sliding southeast towards the NW US in association with a -PNA.

http://www.cpc.ncep....eas_dec2001.gif

so you are looking at ensembles from 11-16 days away..to give you idea what the pattern will look a month away?..and why 01-02?..I'm sure there have been horrid late November patterns that happened in other years..and 01-02 was neutral enso..I've seen 01-02 thrown around the last few days and I dont get it..it's not even a analog

[NYCSuburbs]

Brought this post over from the banter thread

Correct, and it looks terrible. The Euro ensembles at 500mb are still awful, too..and actually bring forward some similarities to Dec 2001

December 2001 general idea was fixated around a similar Eastern and Northern Pacific pattern.

http://www.meteo.psu...2001/120309.png

Notice the persistent negative anomalies near Alaska which kept sliding southeast towards the NW US in association with a -PNA.

http://www.cpc.ncep....eas_dec2001.gif

How much longer do you think the Pacific will stay like this before improving? The PNA is modeled to trend towards neutral on the GEFS towards the end of the month, but it's been negative for a while and it seems that the transition to more of a neutral -PNA keeps getting delayed.

[earthlight]

so you are looking at ensembles from 11-16 days away..to give you idea what the pattern will look a month away?..and why 01-02?..I'm sure there have been horrid late November patterns that happened in other years..and 01-02 was neutral enso..I've seen 01-02 thrown around the last few days and I dont get it..it's not even a analog

I said there was a comparison to the 500mb height anomalies from that year...,and I have repeatedly referenced the Euro weeklies & ensembles. That's all.

I never said anything about an analog. Not sure why it was taken that way. I simply said it looks similar to that pattern on the weeklies...which, if you look at the weeklies and then click the links I posted, you would agree with. Unfortunately I can't post the weeklies publicly.

Regardless, I don't get the argument really. Im just stating what I'm looking at. My thoughts remain the same ... I think this pattern flips in mid Dec. That's been my time frame for weeks now.

[TheTrials]

so you are looking at ensembles from 11-16 days away..to give you idea what the pattern will look a month away?..and why 01-02?..I'm sure there have been horrid late November patterns that happened in other years..and 01-02 was neutral enso..I've seen 01-02 thrown around the last few days and I dont get it..it's not even a analog

this.

[KEITH L.I]

I said there was a comparison to the 500mb height anomalies from that year...,and I have repeatedly referenced the Euro weeklies & ensembles. That's all.

I never said anything about an analog. Not sure why it was taken that way. I simply said it looks similar to that pattern on the weeklies...which, if you look at the weeklies and then click the links I posted, you would agree with. Unfortunately I can't post the weeklies publicly.

Regardless, I don't get the argument really. Im just stating what I'm looking at. My thoughts remain the same ... I think this pattern flips in mid Dec. That's been my time frame for weeks now.

No agruments John..lol..it's cool..it has just seemed to me, that some (and I'm not including you)..always throw around 01-02, every November when the pattern sucks..and really does it matter what the pattern is like in November..it wont snow anyway..If this were the December pattern and the 10-16 ensembles were Christmas time..then well it would be a big concern

[earthlight]

No agruments John..lol..it's cool..it has just seemed to me, that some (and I'm not including you)..always throw around 01-02, every November when the pattern sucks..and really does it matter what the pattern is like in November..it wont snow anyway..If this were the December pattern and the 10-16 ensembles were Christmas time..then well it would be a big concern

Lol I am the last person to ever throw around the 01 analog, ever. But the issue is that the ensembles and weeklies and even the OP Euro to an extent do bring forward some similarities. Which is why I figured it was worth noting. Something to keep in mind.

Obviously the pattern over the next 10+ days can be like Dec 2001 if it wants, thats fine. What happens in 30 days is what matters.

[Allsnow]

Good snow town with an altitude of nearly 2000 feet....

Yes, my family has a cabin up there.....they prob get close to a 100 a year. Lake effect streamers help them out alot. Im a big on outdoor stuff, so its heaven up there.

[Allsnow]

By Elk mountain? My uncle has a place up there at 1900 feet I love it there, his places has to average close to 100 inches a year sitting right at the tail end of the lake effect and close Carie to the coast to cash in on coastal's.

It was a warm sunny day here in Long Beach with Sean sending in some fun swell.

Yeah its a nice place up there....usually they get snow on the ground right after thanksgiving and it stays on the ground until april. Although some years it varies.

[Stormlover74]

Wasn't that also predicted to be a cold snowy winter? I remember it being forecast to turn colder around the middle of December, then around Christmas, and they just kept pushing it back. It got briefly colder after christmas when I think Buffalo got like 80" of lake effect snow or something. But other than a minor 3 to 5" event in late January we got nada.

Lol I am the last person to ever throw around the 01 analog, ever. But the issue is that the ensembles and weeklies and even the OP Euro to an extent do bring forward some similarities. Which is why I figured it was worth noting. Something to keep in mind.

Obviously the pattern over the next 10+ days can be like Dec 2001 if it wants, thats fine. What happens in 30 days is what matters.

[TheTrials]

Wasn't that also predicted to be a cold snowy winter? I remember it being forecast to turn colder around the middle of December, then around Christmas, and they just kept pushing it back. It got briefly colder after christmas when I think Buffalo got like 80" of lake effect snow or something. But other than a minor 3 to 5" event in late January we got nada.

It had a raging +AO.

[earthlight]

There is a very strong signal for a very amplified/volatile longwave pattern in general beginning in about a week and continuing through early Dec on most guidance--that's one thing that is near definite. How it works out remains to be seen--we have to pay close attention the the MJO impulse and the developments in the E Pac and NW US/Western Canada as well as obviously the heights towards the blocking regions as well.

[SnowGoose69]

It had a raging +AO.

I'm not sure to tell you the truth if the AO was -3 that winter if would have really mattered much, we sure would have been colder but I'm not sure how much colder. The AO/NAO were both positive, but in December when both averaged negative it was still tremendously mild. The problem was the very strong + pressure anomalies in the West which was causing an influx of Pacific air as well as a non-existent or unusually small PV that was generally O shaped and not oval shaped, as a result the flow around it in Canada was basically westerly or even west-southwesterly and the cold air never made it south of the Canadian border. Historically the AO has tended to be very positive in most neutral winters, particularly those which follow La Ninas, this is something to remember possibly next winter or the winter after as we may have a Nina hat trick for 2012-2013.

[TheTrials]

I'm not sure to tell you the truth if the AO was -3 that winter if would have really mattered much, we sure would have been colder but I'm not sure how much colder. The AO/NAO were both positive, but in December when both averaged negative it was still tremendously mild. The problem was the very strong + pressure anomalies in the West which was causing an influx of Pacific air as well as a non-existent or unusually small PV that was generally O shaped and not oval shaped, as a result the flow around it in Canada was basically westerly or even west-southwesterly and the cold air never made it south of the Canadian border.

there was also a dirth of any vorts across the country, literally there were no storms.

[Brian5671]

there was also a dirth of any vorts across the country, literally there were no storms.

That was by far the worst winter I've ever experienced. Beats anything in the 80's or 90's bar none...literally nothing to track and days upon days of 45-50 degrees or better....it was a year of high expectations that delivered close to zero. One storm in Jan gave us 4 inches and there was a minor ice event somewhere and that was it.

[Stormlover74]

97-98 was equally bad. The only good thing was we did get a lot of noreasters only with rain and temps in the 60s and the only real snow was a surprise rain to snow event on the backside. But being a strong nino nobody was expecting much.

That was by far the worst winter I've ever experienced. Beats anything in the 80's or 90's bar none...literally nothing to track and days upon days of 45-50 degrees or better....it was a year of high expectations that delivered close to zero. One storm in Jan gave us 4 inches and there was a minor ice event somewhere and that was it.

[JBG]

That was by far the worst winter I've ever experienced. Beats anything in the 80's or 90's bar none...literally nothing to track and days upon days of 45-50 degrees or better....it was a year of high expectations that delivered close to zero. One storm in Jan gave us 4 inches and there was a minor ice event somewhere and that was it.

97-98 was equally bad. The only good thing was we did get a lot of noreasters only with rain and temps in the 60s and the only real snow was a surprise rain to snow event on the backside. But being a strong nino nobody was expecting much.

1997-8 and 2001-2 lead the recent s*** parade of bad winters. But there were plenty of other bad ones I remember: 1) 1971-2 (statistics better than reality because of large number of snow to rain events); 1972-3 (strong El Niño with a few exciting near-misses); 1974-5 (one decent storm the rest garbage); 1975-6, 1980-1, 1983-4, 1984-5, 1985-6, 1988-9, 1989-90, 1990-1, 1991-2 (all those winters basically nothing happened); 1976-7 (big cold, lots of wasted talent); 2006-7 (72 in January, 2 big sleet-fests); 2007-8 (except for one semi-decent storm nothing happened).

[easternsnowman]

so you are looking at ensembles from 11-16 days away..to give you idea what the pattern will look a month away?..and why 01-02?..I'm sure there have been horrid late November patterns that happened in other years..and 01-02 was neutral enso..I've seen 01-02 thrown around the last few days and I dont get it..it's not even a analog

Any model more than 10 days out is not reliable, that includs the ensembles.