eduggs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 On 11/17/2011 at 4:24 AM, ORH_wxman said: This should be called the "Pigs flying out of our azzes" pattern...because that is when NYC metro would see accumulating snow in this whole setup. Richmond, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 On 11/17/2011 at 4:25 AM, earthlight said: Meteorological miracles at work what? it could happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 On 11/17/2011 at 8:25 AM, Dark Energy said: what? it could happen! Well, lately if it can happen, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 On 11/17/2011 at 8:25 AM, Dark Energy said: what? it could happen! On 11/17/2011 at 8:43 AM, Ericjcrash said: Well, lately if it can happen, it will. yup. Mother nature wiill do what she wants, looking forward to flurries later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think we have enough cold air aloft this afternoon and evening, that if precip fell hard enough, we could all see some flakes falling today. But that should be about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The models suddenly went east almost as fast as they came west... ECM shows very light precip near the coast, the NAM still has less than 0.1" QPF west of NYC, GFS trended to less than 1/4", short range RUC/HRRR/RR models also show little QPF, and the CMC still has little precip. What the models are saying isn't the most important and by this time range, current observations become important as well, and I'm not ruling out a slightly wetter storm, but perhaps the heavier QPF over NYC on yesterday's 18z GFS may have been just a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 12Z gfs shows 850s falling below zero between 15-18Z. Precip is still around by that time, and we could see some flakes mix in. If it falls hard enough could change to mostly snow for a period of time. No accumulation though as surface temps are way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 On 11/17/2011 at 4:17 PM, Metsfan said: 12Z gfs shows 850s falling below zero between 15-18Z. Precip is still around by that time, and we could see some flakes mix in. If it falls hard enough could change to mostly snow for a period of time. No accumulation though as surface temps are way too warm. This Afternoon: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 42. North wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.<br style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, 'San Serif'; text-align: -webkit-left; "><br style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, 'San Serif'; text-align: -webkit-left; ">Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 9pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 33. West wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Chance of snow? is trials at the NOAA desk today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Anyone a few hundred feet higher then me reporting some flakes? The radar looks like its falling as snow aloft fairly close to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It's too bad we reached our high for the day at midnight or else today could have put a nice little dent in the positive departures. Which is why I hate midnight highs. It's currently 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Got down to 33. Is the airmass just not cold enough or did the wind kill our chances of going lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 36 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Low of 36 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Usually on our coldest nights there is a pretty substantial spread from the interior to the cities. Last night there was only about a 6 degree difference from Sussex county to NYC. Even EWR was only about 4 degrees warmer than well N&W. On 11/18/2011 at 1:11 PM, BxEngine said: Got down to 33. Is the airmass just not cold enough or did the wind kill our chances of going lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Monthly stats through Nov. 17th: NYC: +2.4 LGA: +2.1 JFK: +1.6 ISP: +2.9 BDR: +2.6 EWR: +2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 12z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 the low of 36 is the lowest so far this month...36 is the record highest monthly minimum for November set in 1998...it was 33 in October...The only other times November had a warmer minimum than October were 1975 and 1988...three horible snow analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On 11/18/2011 at 4:53 PM, uncle W said: the low of 36 is the lowest so far this month...36 is the record highest monthly minimum for November set in 1998...it was 33 in October...The only other times November had a warmer minimum than October were 1975 and 1988...three horible snow analogs... I said it before when people were hyping the warm November being good, its good sometimes but you really have to look closely at a number of things that seperate those warm Novembers that eventually turned snowy and those which did not. The storm frequency is also important, the fact we may get a couple of events here the next 10 days is a good sign, again dry and warm IMO is always worse than wet and warm, although JB and some other mets feel that wet and warm Novembers are a bad sign, I've never really agreed with that theory. I still think this is not going to be a great winter for most of the lower 48 in regards to cold and snow, it may not be 1998-99 or 2001-2002 esque but it could be like a 1984-85 or 1990-1991 (likely cooler than 1990-91 but the snow situation may be similar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 As others have mentioned, a dry November is often more of a sign than a warm one. Some places have yet to see 1" for the month with next week's rain chance and one more shot to close out the month. But it's possible many locations end up with less than half of their normal amount. On 11/18/2011 at 9:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I said it before when people were hyping the warm November being good, its good sometimes but you really have to look closely at a number of things that seperate those warm Novembers that eventually turned snowy and those which did not. The storm frequency is also important, the fact we may get a couple of events here the next 10 days is a good sign, again dry and warm IMO is always worse than wet and warm, although JB and some other mets feel that wet and warm Novembers are a bad sign, I've never really agreed with that theory. I still think this is not going to be a great winter for most of the lower 48 in regards to cold and snow, it may not be 1998-99 or 2001-2002 esque but it could be like a 1984-85 or 1990-1991 (likely cooler than 1990-91 but the snow situation may be similar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 DT brings up a good point about Northern Hemisphere sunow cover being extensitve today and on the other side of the globe, record setting..wonder how that will play into things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On 11/18/2011 at 4:53 PM, uncle W said: the low of 36 is the lowest so far this month...36 is the record highest monthly minimum for November set in 1998...it was 33 in October...The only other times November had a warmer minimum than October were 1975 and 1988...three horible snow analogs... That just sent a sharp chill down my spine. Were 1975 and 1988 La Nina years and did those years feature snow in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On 11/18/2011 at 9:39 PM, Brian5671 said: DT brings up a good point about Northern Hemisphere sunow cover being extensitve today and on the other side of the globe, record setting..wonder how that will play into things... If we get rid of the GOA low it will be a big factor, even if we have a +AO/NAO all winter if we lose that GOA we can get plenty of decent transitorycold shots and have a shot at winter storms, if we don't lose that vortex though the cold air will never really make it into Canada or the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On 11/18/2011 at 9:45 PM, Hailstorm said: That just sent a sharp chill down my spine. Were 1975 and 1988 La Nina years and did those years feature snow in October? 1988-89 had La Nina comparable to last year, the difference is the AO was absolutely off the charts positive in the 88-89 winter, it averaged around 3.5 for Jan/Feb, somehow though February was one of the coolest on record for the central U.S., my gues is the EPO must have been very negative.. 1975-76 also was a La Nina similar to last years in strength, it also had a very positive AO and NAO overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 On 11/18/2011 at 9:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I said it before when people were hyping the warm November being good, its good sometimes but you really have to look closely at a number of things that seperate those warm Novembers that eventually turned snowy and those which did not. The storm frequency is also important, the fact we may get a couple of events here the next 10 days is a good sign, again dry and warm IMO is always worse than wet and warm, although JB and some other mets feel that wet and warm Novembers are a bad sign, I've never really agreed with that theory. I still think this is not going to be a great winter for most of the lower 48 in regards to cold and snow, it may not be 1998-99 or 2001-2002 esque but it could be like a 1984-85 or 1990-1991 (likely cooler than 1990-91 but the snow situation may be similar). I went over the wettest and driest Novembers since 1950 and and came up with this list...red years are El Nino winters and blue La Nina...Black is nuetral...So far we are warm and dry...These years had 4.93" of rainfall or more for wet...2.55" or less for dry...48.0 degrees or above for warm and below 48.0 for cool...1964 had an exceptable winter after the warm and dry November..... Wet/Warm...Wet/Cool...Dry/Warm...Dry/Cool... 1963.............1951...........1953...........1958 1970.............1954...........1964...........1965 1983.............1968...........1973...........1967 1985.............1971...........1974...........1976 1988.............1972...........1993...........1981 2006.............1977...........1998...........1991 ....................1986...........1999...........2010 ....................1992...........2001 ....................1995...........2009 ....................2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 down to 31º. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 down to 25 in eastern long island near the pine barrens: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.894829632611774&lon=-72.37174987792969&site=okx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 On 11/19/2011 at 2:35 AM, BxEngine said: down to 31º. nice. It seems that the current temperatures are slightly colder than what the models have and are still dropping... I wouldn't be surprised at all if lows ends up colder than what the NAM/GFS have, with mid to possibly low 20s in parts of Sussex/Orange counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 On 11/14/2011 at 12:11 AM, uncle W said: I believe it was mild up until November 17th 1955 before it got very cold with some snow after the 19th...And remember 1955-6 was the example other than 2010-1 of a moderate-strong La Nina with one or more Kocin storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 On 11/19/2011 at 2:59 AM, NYCSuburbs said: It seems that the current temperatures are slightly colder than what the models have and are still dropping... I wouldn't be surprised at all if lows ends up colder than what the NAM/GFS have, with mid to possibly low 20s in parts of Sussex/Orange counties. Already down to 25 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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